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I have taken the trading update out of this because we all know we were a small company now on the cusp of becoming a world leading diagnostics company. Focus on this extract. They are telling us that they will be selling everything they make. The bulk of sales will be Antigen lfts and antibody lfts. Average price of the Innova tests and Abbot tests were £10.00 a go. If we sell at £3 a test we have £150 million in the bank in one year. 65% profit margin is £97.5 million x3 price earnings (which is what the market have afforded NCYT) is £292.5 million market cap. Share price £1.50. If we sell at an average of £6.00 a test SP is £3.00. If we sell at £9.00 a test SP is £4.50.
Many will argue that £3.00 is very conservative. I think it is too. My guess is an average of a minimum of £5.00 a test -they are in a good bargaining position agreeing mass manufacture and losing out on the opportunity to sell overseas.

UK Government contract
Thu, 11th Feb 2021 07:01

RNS Number : 6952O
Omega Diagnostics Group PLC
11 February 2021
OMEGA DIAGNOSTICS GROUP PLC
("Omega" or the "Company" or the "Group")
UK Government manufacturing contract

Omega (AIM: ODX), the medical diagnostics company focused on CD4, infectious diseases and food intolerance testing, announces that it has agreed a contract with the Department of Health and Social Care ("DHSC") to provide manufacturing capacity for COVID-19 lateral flow antigen tests, as part of the UK Government's well-publicised target of producing two million lateral flow tests per day.
The intention is that as soon as the DHSC has access to a test that has successfully passed a performance evaluation, the test will be licensed for Omega to manufacture. As part of the contract, DHSC will loan a number of key pieces of manufacturing equipment.
This will facilitate the necessary expansion in production capability in Omega's Alva-based facility, to ensure the tests are made available as soon as possible.
The Company anticipates that the above actions will provide the Company with capacity to produce approximately 2 million tests per week by the end of April, when combining the Government-loaned equipment with its own manufacturing equipment. Omega expects that this capacity will be sufficient to meet the expected demand for lateral flow COVID-19 antigen tests, with enough remaining capacity to be used for VISITECT® CD4 or COVID-19 antibody tests according to demand.
The Company also continues to support the Clinton Health Access Initiative, Inc. ("CHAI")1 to accelerate access to Omega's VISITECT® CD4 Advanced Disease test through the supply agreement signed with CHAI... '

By a long way. 3 bagger from here minimum imho.
This will be £1.00 or close by a few pence either way and we might have got rid of a few day traders on the way.
The Times and the Herald have got both stories today- mass rapid, antigen lateral flow tests and a superb result for ABC19 antibody tests. The fact that Public Health England have done a second evaluation confirms that they know that the Ulster university independent assessment was right and the old peer review that Deeks had influenced was absolute nonsense.
We have a contract to supply 2 million tests a week from April to support mass testing and open up the economy and the whole of society. We are one of 3 preferred suppliers. Surescreen who are also one of 3 have confirmed a £500 million deal. We have an RNS to confirm that we will be supplying the best antigen lft on the market.
By Monday we will be looking at £1.20. It won't make any difference whether you buy or sell. That's where investors in this share are going whether old or new.
When the next RNS drops confirming the size of the order and the price we will have lift off. Thereafter more news to come. Will the MHRA allow home testing for antigen and antibody lfts? Or will the government buy the lot? This firm has capacity for 100 million tests per year. Absolute no brainer. Hold for the shiny stuff.

ODX will be getting a massive contract to support these plans within days. I noticed that Vascular. Price per test in lateral flow tests are about £10.00. I think we will get fair market value for manufacturing. Between £3 or £4.00 per test multiplied by about 80 million for lateral flow antigen and antibody tests is very likely over the year. The rest of their capacity will go on the higher cost CD4 and HIV tests. Looking very good indeed for investors in ODX.

We will soon hear about the BC launch of GDR's kit won't we. If it's happening it will be all over the business press. Exciting.

Mass Testing Blitz as Boris Johnson plans easing of lockdown

'Boris Johnson is drawing up plans for a testing blitz of millions of people as the Covid19 lockdown is eased.
NHS Test and Trace is preparing for nationwide 'surge testing' under which 400,000 rapid lateral flow tests will be sent to homes and workplaces every day, The Times has learnt. The aim is to get the country to a 'new normal'...

Good read!

The Ulster university study was thousands. The new PHE study showed exactly the same level of sensitivity- 97.6% and specificity was 100%. So also great. And a relief after the Deeks attention seeking nonsense. God, we've had a lot of nonsense to put up with!

Hilarious. Cancel culture now! I would filter this old man myself but he needs keeping an eye on.
We've had a good day. We need another one. February 22nd should mean we can start getting the RNS' rolling in. Clocking off for tonight.

All tests are evaluated for both specificity and sensitivity. Lfts tend to have lower sensitivity (so far) yeah and PCRs are arguably too sensitive because they show viral loads that might be shedding. So yeah, Chuggley that's the right challenges.

Agree Tecbadger. It was a small trial. Mologic's was only a cohort of 60 but of course they are now hopefully completing much larger trials.

DMcG54, fair enough. I guess we're all different. I bought in first with a 56p average and bought again today. Average isn't the whole story once the share potential starts to become very visible and the opportunity gets more substantial than you may have realised. But yeah. We all have our own circumstances going on.

96.7% sensitivity. 100% specificity. So it will be interesting to see how Mologic do. Surescreen are edging ahead on those criteria so far. But saliva tests are more comfortable and simpler and faster to manage at scale. Sensitivity- indicates that you have it. Specificity says you don't. Sensitivity errors are worse because if you think you don't have it and you do you will spread it. Avacta are bigging up 100% specificity because of the savings from checking out false positives.
Tiny sample size so it looks like they are still in a very early stage of evaluation. Check out their RNS today.

That is funny Yuyus. Yes! To number 9! And possibly number 2 a long time ago.

Don't really get why anyone would sell when there's blockbuster news due anytime? You might make a few quid whilst undermining your broader investment but you could miss out on the big prize. And then you will be all...if only! OMG. I am so dumb! Forever plagued by regrets! Lol.

No-one gives a crap that you sold JAdam. You ain't that rich. Your honesty is not the problem. Your dishonesty and disrespect for investors that is the problem. It's all the ludicrous scenarios that you showed yourself up with in a terrible attempt at deramping. None of those scenarios are remotely plausible.
If the first contract is for Surescreen Colin King will have got a deal comparable to the deal agreed with Mologic. The RTC deal was subsidised so that's why the pricing policy was low but it worked for ODX because it put them on the map and it was limited in capacity expectations with agreement that with government permission they can export and sell commercially. If they are now asked to use nearly all their capacity for government why wouldn't they expect a fair return to recognise the opportunity cost of not being able to sell overseas and commercially? Most unlikely when it's in the public domain that they have paid £10 a test to Innova and much more to Abbott and other less sensitive tests. They aren't going to drive a UK diagnostics industry by paying less than the going rate. The rest of the world is always an alternative market. It's not as if ODX have no power in the negotiations. They are an excellent diagnostics company.
Also interesting today that it was ODX's Elisa antibody PCR that was used in the antibody lateral flow evaluation which ABC19 came out on top for. Lots of good things to come here.
If anyone wants to read the RNS again it's clear that they will be fully utilising nearly all their capacity for cv19 tests. The remainder will be used to fulfill expected commitments for the much higher priced CD4 and HIV tests. Anyone with half a brain can see why that's a good thing not a bad thing. So it is a very disrespectful assumption JAdam makes thinking he could con us.
Al's well that ends well. I am banging on about exactly why this was wrong because I hope we don't get any more of it and if we do we need to be prepared to tackle it for the sake of new investors.

Aldebaran, JAdam, spent all morning deramping with various mad scenarios. That's why we are annoyed with him. He does it in plain sight and then acts all hurt when he got called out for it. He used to be a big champion of this share and don't worry- he can certainly give anyone who sells any time a very hard time indeed. We all know full well how the market works thanks JAdam. That isn't the issue. And don't worry- I don't think envy is anything for you to be worrying yourself about either. Lol.

Well that's cheered us all up hey! Decent day. Let's hope we see a bit more of that tomorrow. Fantastic volumes today. Looking very positive. News rich period coming up. Keep sharing good news when you find anything relevant. A word of caution- don't share the threads of derampers. If we want to take them we need to remember to change the title of the thread. Lots of people just ignore them which works just as well.

Just showing you the sp. Hold for the shiny stuff. This is our time and I have to say- at long last.

Our rapid lateral flow test going to be used to open up businesses of all kinds. 2 million tests a week from ODX to meet the government plans. And now we have confirmation that the new PHE evaluation came back with ABC19 test best in class- just exactly as Professor Tara Moore's team had already established back in October. Antibodies are showing high for over 80s. All over the news. Won't be long before we can all do our own tests imho.
Here's a round up of news expected and some interesting questions for investors to think about.
News due: 1. Details of the DHSC contract for 2 million tests per week. How much are we getting? Surescreen who are also one of 3 (including ODX), just got £500 million. The first lft contract is worth £912 million. Is it from that contract? There's £5.7 million to be spent before the end of the financial year on tests. The preference is for UK diagnostics companies. We already confirmed as the preferred supplier for manufacturing of the best test and we have signed a contract to confirm supply.
2. ABC19 contract is due to expire today. Will we get a new one on better terms now that the test has been recognised by the latest PHE evaluation that it's the best in class? Take a look at today's RNS.
3. Are the DHSC going to move on the £100 million contract for antibody tests on bid stats?
4. Are the MHRA going to approve antigen lfts for wider home use?
5. Are the MHRA going to approve antibody tests for wider at home use?

DaProphet. Sos bud. Hope you're enjoying the read.

My guess is it will close at £1.39 at least today. If the RNS drops tomorrow there will be a few tears shed into a few beers for sure as a consequence. Although if you have panic sold no-one will know. Jump back in and you will hardly notice when this is £3 within the next few days. Otherwise GLA. Very pleased with that big buy.

Managed another nice big buy at £1.29. Locked and loaded now just before big news. Absolute madness to sell. Thx though sellers. Lol.