Member Info for TrickyDicky2

It's never a good idea to be optimistic when Bell is involved.

TDT

KimiR

You're expect a placing at 0.375p? That seems a bit rich given the current share price. If they do manage to get it away at that level I'd expect a whole load of warrants to be attached.

TDT

....the knitting circle has thrown a hissy, done a ring around and collectively complained to get stuff they disapprove of removed. What a palaver. The lengths some will go to to maintain a fiction.

TDT

"And this proves my point....."

The only thing a statement like that proves is just how much of a complete and utter charlatan you are. You defend a mechanism, Red Rock, that does nothing other than shift money from the the unfortunate to the fortunate. A company where investors can only make money if they happen to get the timing right where the majority lose is not a legitimate company but more akin to a ponzi scheme. In your world you need people to be unfortunate, that's what you rely on for your "timing" to work.

This is a company that has made nothing and will never make anything.

TDT

Drmike33

Agreed.

TDT

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/as-evs-boom-the-junior-nickel-market-has-cashed-up-private-equity-firms-circling/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter-11-17-2022&utm_content=httpsstockheadcomauresourcesasevsboomthejuniornickelmarkethascashedupprivateequityfirmscircling&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20email%20Friday%20November%2018&utm_content=Morning%20email%20Friday%20November%2018+CID_e2be5e14ea202d8f6c78972e82a2d853&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=As%20EVs%20boom%20the%20junior%20nickel%20market%20has%20cashed-up%20private%20equity%20firms%20circling

TDT

taufour

Research into alternatives to cobalt/nickel rich chemistries in batteries has been going on for years and certainly long before the nickel price spike in February of this year so I’m afraid you’re a bit behind the times on that one.

As for your comment “not as good as nickel” that’s a very broad-brush statement. LFP, for example is cheaper, less volatile and can be charged to 100% without adversely affecting the life of the battery. LFP batteries, on a mile to mile basis are heavier than NCA and on a similar metric will give less miles on a full charge but given that it’s not recommended you charge NCA to 100% regularly the distance comparison levels out. Furthermore, LFP batteries don’t degrade and they last longer so your “not as good as nickel” comment would need to be a lot more specific to actually mean anything.

I think you’re right when you say it would be much better if the price of nickel stabilised. I think that’s what all these new NPI and HPAL plants being built in Indonesia should help achieve. I’m not sure most cars being powered by nickel rich batteries is a necessary precursor to achieving that stability. We shall see soon enough.

TDT

Hi Hazbeen

I haven't got a clue. The only thing that I am curious about it what must have prompted "Big Shot", the Tsingshan owner, to gamble such a large amount on the price of nickel falling. He is, after all, far better placed than anybody to know which way the market is likely to go given that he must know what will be coming out of Indonesia in the immediate to short term.

His gamble didn't pay off because of the whole Ukraine kerfuffle. The conditions, however, must still be in place for the bet to have seemed sensible in the first place. Add to that the comment in the article you posted about people still willingly buying Norilsk's product and it looks to me like there has to be a bit of a bump in the road at some point.

Does any of this matter? Not really. The only issue that matters is Horizonte finishes on time, on budget and delivers a plant that's glitch free.

TDT

A bit behind the curve there is old Jeremy. LFP is, by all accounts, an acceptable alternative in many markets.

TDT

What you are relying on to make money from the jump in/jump off technique is some poor fecker jumping in and either staying in or jumping off at the wrong time. Enterprises like Red Rock don't make money they're merely a vehicle for shifting it around.

TDT

"....but in truth I suspect no one knows even close to what will actually happen."

Agreed.

TDT

“Actually Nickel (and Zinc) was only added to the list this year, and a few things taken off / modified.”

But that’s the issue. Despite the fact that the USA and the EU have critical mineral lists nothing much seems to have changed. Deciding to finally add nickel to the list is a bit like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. The Chinese have cornered a very large part of the market in the interim.

I haven’t posted this in a while but it’s quite sobering. It’s taken from a New Scientist article first published in 2006.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5kbny5r9ds337kf/Minerals_How_Long_Will_They_Last.jpg?dl=0

If it’s still accurate you can take 16 years of the dates quoted.

As for the period when nickel bottomed at below $10,000/tonne you have to look at what
contributed to that. Companies like Norilsk Nickel produce both nickel and PGM. If the PGM
prices are high they’ll continue to produce nickel as a by-product even if nickel prices are low.
Ever wondered why Norilsk’s cost to produce nickel is negative?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/2qi031j4wvdi5jc/Screenshot%202022-1115%20at%2010.31.41.png?dl=0

Also diversified miners continued pumping out nickel when prices collapsed because they could afford to. They waited for the up cycle to return. The consequence of that is few companies, except the Chinese, continued developing new resources during this period. The Chinese also commercialised the production of NPI and continued to try and refine HPAL when most in the west had given up on that processing route. What the Chinese have manage to do in the interim is carve out a dominant position and I think they are only at the start. The glut in the market “Big Shot” was basing his massive short on still has to play out.

All of that doesn’t alter the fact that there is going to be a shortage of nickel at some point in the future or that Horizonte, as a low cost producer, can cope with a much lower nickel price. If we see a pull-back in the price of nickel in the short term that’s all that it’s going to be a short term pull-back. Whether that’s over the next 12, 24, 36 months remains to be seen.

TDT

"Sooner or later the big global consumers will have to look at their sourcing strategies....."

Problem is China consumes almost 60% of the world's nickel. They are the big global consumer.

As for the USGC critical minerals list I don't think that's changed much in the last 10 - 12 years. The EU publishes one as well and that hasn't changed much either. Both the USA and the EU have been sitting on their respective fingers for years as the Chinese have quietly extended their control.

The scale of the operations the Chinese set up and the vertical integration (nickel mine to stainless steel production) leaves very little scope for anybody to complete. Add to that the might of the CCP behind companies like Tsingshan and I can't see the situation changing anytime soon.

I think the Chinese are going to flood the market with nickel in the next 12 to 18 months. The numbers of new RKEF and HPAL plants currently under construction or in early stage ramp up in Indonesia indicate that. That's what "Big Shot" was gambling on when the Russian invasion of Ukraine threw a spanner in the works.

All these new plants in Indonesia haven't gone away. Furthermore Hazbeen's Bloomberg link confirms that the market is still more than happy to buy Russian nickel. If there is going to be a spike in the price of nickel we might have to wait a little bit longer than 12 - 24 months.

TDT

It's all China centred and for that reason it's bound to be opaque. The LME is Chinese owned. Tsingshan managed to wriggle off the hook very easily. Do you remember this:-

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qingdao-metals-ahome-idUSKBN0JW18620141218

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-metals-fraud-idUSKBN1O91G8

What goes on in China half the time never see's the light of day. Only where they can't cover up does it become public. If manipulating prices and hiding stocks of material allows them to establish a dominant position globally that's what they'll do. In short I don't think the LME is a particularly good or accurate barometer of what the position is with any base metal.

TDT

"And the nickel market is still broken, say people involved in it, with both open interest and trading volumes stuck at sharply lower levels as traders step away from using LME prices in their contracts. Jim Lennon, a veteran nickel market-watcher and managing director of Red Door Research Ltd., estimates that less than 25% of global nickel output is now being sold on the basis of LME prices, down from 50% before the crisis in March. “A lot of the industry now has temporarily disengaged from the LME,” he says. “The market is still functioning, but it’s struggling.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/thanks-to-lme-tsingshan-s-xiang-guanda-escapes-nickel-chaos-a-billionaire

TDT

"I thought LME had instigated a 5% limit for Nickel prices? Did they rescind that recently?"

The LME asked asked Tsingshan if they should suspend trading today when the price moved by more than 5% but Tsingshan said no.

TDT

TDT

"I appreciate it's a bit disconnected from the actual product we're digging up."

Is it?

"As part of this work, we will look at the option of adding a nickel matte converter into the plant flowsheet providing the optionality to convert a portion of the FeNi output to nickel matte, a product that has the potential to be sold directly into the battery metal supply chain. The overall objective of this engineering work is to potentially fast-track Araguaia towards a ~29,000 tpa nickel producer."

TDT

Did you read R5?

"It should be noted that passing of this resolution would not result in the automatic acceptance of a future RTO, for which further shareholder approval would be required."

TDT

Plenty of directors bought in the open market at Sirius Minerals but that still didn't end well. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on directors buying or not buying.

TDT

That's better than being up trouser legs.

TDT