Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Here we go again. According to Kitco nickel is down by $4,4452/lb. to $8m2539/lb. today. That's a whopping great fall which should trigger an LME suspension in trading.

Fickle nickel right enough.

RDR

OilyRags

Uncertainty after the recent LME fiasco might be the closest explanation for nickel’s current performance.

https://www.mining.com/web/column-exchanges-diversify-as-base-metals-trade-shrinks-in-2022/

TDT

OilyRags

No and if I did I very much doubt it would come even remotely close to being correct.

Fickle nickel is about the best I can come up with.

TDT

MadMat

Try as you might to shift the blame for all of this I think the two below extracts, taken from recent Amur RNSs, make it crystal clear where the problem lies. The Russian party to this transaction is trying the transfer money but the western party to the transaction is not taking it.

RNS - 3/10/2022
Robin Young, CEO of Amur, commented: "We are pleased that the Russian Federation has approved the Disposal of our AO Kun-Manie wholly owned subsidiary in the agreed amount of US$35 million. It is our intent to advance to Completion as rapidly as possible given the ongoing geopolitical situation where sanctions by various nation states continue to be modified on an ongoing basis.

RNS-7/11/2022
However Western introduced restrictions related to the international transfer of funds from the Russian Federation have become more restrictive with time. Mainstream international banks are severely restricting or are no longer allowing such transactions per their internal compliance protocols. This includes the Company's bank which has necessitated establishing alternative banking services. The Buyer and the Company are coordinating efforts to establish a fully compliant fund transfer allowing for completion.

Suggesting the buyer is responsible for all of this is a bit like victim blaming. Putin might be responsible for current geopolitical events but that doesn't make Sviblov responsible for Amur not being able to find a bank in the west to take his money.

TDT

MadMat

The problem with your thesis is, if correct, no western company would have successfully concluded the sale of Russian based assets and that's patently not true. Plenty of UK companies have divested themselves of their Russian partnerships and assets and been paid so why not Amur?

TDT

Nickel in the LME will end the week on 51,852 tonnes. Stocks have dropped by about 6% over the least two week. The problem here is, over the last three months, stock in the LME has been rising at the same time as price but over the last two weeks stock has dropped at the same time as price.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/v7i30jrrnitu12v/LME%20Nickel%20Stock%3APrice.png?dl=0

Orange is stock levels, red price.

Price and stock levels are just not doing what they're supposed to.

TDT

"Analysts already expect nickel production to rise due to increased efforts in Indonesia."

I wouldn't be placing a multi billion dollar short on the expectation that the above will definitely happen. There's a lot of tension on Sulawesi.

TDT

MadMat

That's not quite right. Its Amur's bank that's the issue. Bering Metals LLC are trying to transfer the funds but it's Western sanctions that's preventing that. RY should have been on top of this given the rapidly changing events resulting from the Ukraine war but he wasn't. I think the blame here lies firm on his shoulders. He might have been caught out by a sudden change in requirements but at least a half formulate Plan B in the event that the unexpected is what I'd expect him to have. The amount of time that's passed since the 7th. November RNS suggests to me that he got caught with his pants down.

Who knows what's going on behind the scenes. Not an awful lot if past performance is anything to go by.

TDT

This is always going to be a problem there.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-15/Workers-clash-at-Indonesian-nickel-smelter-killing-two.html

TDT

"They always say write about what you know."

I guess that explains why you haven't written anything then Trowtech?

TDT

kwinee

"RY has a substantial stake in AMC."

RY does not have a substantial stake in Amur. Of the 1,392,872,315 shares in issue he has 6,369,318 or approximately 0.457%. That's not substantial and at 1.8p per share represents approximately £114,650. That's just over 5 month annual salary.

We are where we are. Exaggerated claims, no matter in which direction they blow, help little. This is simply a case of bail if you think this is going to result in no sale or sit tight if you do.. Nothing said or done here will impact in the slightest the eventual outcome.

TDT

No BoB they haven't but unlike you I'm more than willing to acknowledge that Amur may well end up with nothing. Are you prepare to be equally honest about Eurasia's prospects?

Bumble1968

I understand that but at what point does processing 1 tonne of ore become profitable? Strip out West Kytlim's costs from the global figures presented by Eurasia if you can. That will tell you if what they produce will cover their WK OPEX. At the moment you can't do that so once again it's going to be another wait and see year if in fact they can last another year.

TDT

At the best grade DR quotes, 310 mg/m3, you would have to process 100 tonnes to extract 1 troy ounce of raw platinum. Raw platinum is approximately 70% pure platinum and 68% of that is attributable to Eurasia. Assuming $1,100/troy ounce that’s $1,100 x 70% = $770 then x 68% = $523.60. That means, at best because don’t forget this is the best grade quoted, you will extract $5.27 of value for every 1 tonne processed.

And before anybody thinks about pulling pants down over the supposed Iridium, Palladium, Rhodium, and Gold that’s there can anybody point me to where Eurasia confirms the value of these metals from previous years? WK does not produce enough to keep WK going never mind anything else that Eurasia is doing.

TDT

Worth a read before anybody gets carried away.

https://nextinvestors.com/learn-to-invest/mining/how-to-evaluate-nearology-investments/

Nearology does not have a particularly good track record. Given that's its Tertiary we're talking about doubly so.

TDT

It's the simplest thing in the world to structure a deal where one event is contingent upon the other. Sounds to me like there's more going on here than meets the eye.

TDT

peaceonearth

It was SuzyBoozy. Keep up.

TDT

.....circle has started the New Year the same way they ended the last. Handbags a dawn and woe betide anyone who dares challenge "the truth".

TDT

"....he loves to go on a bit."

A bit like you then Helpful!

TDT

fyeburnmouth

You need to remember what you've posted previously before you go claiming to have bought and sold many times.

25th. May 2022

"As a very LTH I have been struggling to make sense of Amur for years but always hopeful of at least a small profit on my investment av of around 5p."

TDT

"The lack of advanced, viable nickel projects will put a scarcity premium on the nickel assets that can advance into production in the next several years."
Alex Tsukernik, President, CEO & Director of Nova Royalty

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/base-metals-investing/nickel-investing/nickel-forecast/

TDT