Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Thanks to Luke2 on the HZM BB.

https://www.mining.com/carbon-footprint-of-nickel-sulphate-transport-may-start-to-worry-oems-report/

TDT

NPV on Araguaia 1 with nickel at $19,000/tonne is about $1B or £720m is you prefer. That's about 50p per share but we're not producing yet so you need to discount that quite a bit and discount even further because the last tranche of funding is not confirmed just yet. So we're effectively 18% of NPV or there about. Nothing factored in for Araguaia 2 or Vermelho or if there is then Araguaia 1 is an awful lot less then 18% of NPV.

IMO once funding is finally tied down the share price for Araguaia 1 should rise to around 50% of NPV but more importantly the certainty that will come with Araguaia 1 funding should remove significant risk for Araguaia 2 and Vermelho. The funding/construction commencing RNS at Araguaia 1 should result in a minimum share price of 25p. That's the absolute minimum. If the promised news on Vermelho H1 2021 is significant then who knows where this might go.

Feel free to give that assessment a good kicking if it seems overly optimistic (or pessimistic even).

TDT

It's up and down for LME stocks at the moment or, more accurately, down and up.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rkt5gqo89boyy47/screenshot%202021-02-15%20at%2008.04.33.png?dl=0

TDT

WG

That's an interesting development. I can't see much coming from it for Amur but you never know. Will they be talking about Tesla building a factory in Russia or Tesla being allowed to acquire mines that have the metals that Tesla needs? If Putin takes up the offer they'll probably end up talking about something entirely different.

Vladivostok to Los Angles is nowhere near as far as you might think. It's an 11 day sail time at 18 knots.

TDT

This is interesting given that where Tesla goes most/many will be compelled to follow.

"To further reduce costs, Tesla also outlined plans to streamline the nickel and lithium production part of its cathode production process. The company plans to use metal powder and refine it into a suitable product for its battery cathodes, instead of the traditional process whereby an intermediate battery-grade metal sulfate is processed. Using nickel as an example, Tesla's proposed process will initially mostly use nickel sulfide ore to produce nickel powder. It will eventually shift to using recycled batteries to produce nickel powder as the availability of recycled batteries increases. This process would theoretically be less costly because it uses cheaper nickel ore instead of more expensive nickel sulfate and it requires less input chemicals and has no intermediate processing stage."

During battery day Tesla mentioned that they were moving from a wet slurry to dry powder process for the production of their nickel rich cathodes. This processing switch, according to Tesla, has a significant cost saving in the production of the cathode. That seems to suggest that nickel powder derived from sulphide ore deposits and not class 1 nickel from, for example laterite HPAL projects, will attract a premium. You can read more here.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/teslas-ambitious-cost-cutting-plans-positive-for-nickel-lithium-if-realized

TDT

Mineralex

".....and a poster TD2 on here rubbished my statement like he always does ."

That's not quite right, is it Mineralex? This is what I posted on 02/02/2021.

"Mineralex, don't for get the additional 216,258,741 shares issued since 01/01/2020, 25%+ dilution, giving a total of 1,047,905,778 shares now in issue."

"On the 31/12/2019, just over a year ago, this company had 478,727,565 shares in issue. Junior explorers need cash and issuing equity is about the only way to get it. Given all the cash they've raised, however, is it not unreasonable to expect them to have a decent prospect on the books by now? It's not even jam tomorrow with this one but jam a fortnight the leap year after next."

"I do hope you're right Mineralex but this company's track record to date has been dire. I suspect the recent RNSs had more to do with getting the placings away than anything else. We shall see soon enough."

You've been pumping this share for years. When one project falls by the way side you jump on the next with similar claims to the previous failed one that this new one is going to be a company maker. Well I guess if you throw enough darts at the dart board you're going to hit the bullseye eventually. Every dog, after all, is supposed to have its day, even this one.

Try not to wallow in a persecution complex. If you put stuff up on BBs and what you claim doesn't come to pass don't be surprised at the flack that comes you way, especially on a perennial disappointment like Tertiary.

Enjoy the company's current change of fortune and lets hope it lasts.

TDT

Ivornomoney

It's called under promise and over deliver. Better than the other way round don't you think? Can you imagine the uproar if Horizonte put something else out there and the price of nickel, through 2021/22 dropped (which it might).

AIM is littered with wannabe companies that over promise. It's nice to be in one for a change with its feet firmly on the ground.
Sensible companies tend to attract sensible investors, ones who are happy to hold shares. Rather than than the usual flighty nano second holders who're in and out before they've even grasped the basics never mind the company's long term prospects.

Horizonte will take off when its good and ready.

TDT

Ivornomoney

The presentation gives a consensus nickel price forecasts arrived at by analysts. Horizonte isn't doing the predicting analysts are. I guess it just goes to show how useless analysts are!

TDT

“We believe that the shift toward battery electric vehicle adoption is accelerating and will occur faster than our prior view. We believe that battery prices are falling faster than we previously expected which improves the economics of EV ownership, and there has recently been an increase in regulatory proposals from some jurisdictions to limit or ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles entirely in 10-20 years.”

TDT

JB

That's not quite right. They're paying a premium for refined nickel ie. Class 1. They don't want intermediate product they prefer Class 1 and Class 1 can be produced from either sulphide or laterite ore.

TDT

Ignore that last post re japan/Korea. This is what was said in DBS "Sector Briefing 92" report in October 2020.

"Resistance from Korean and Japanese precursor manufacturers. Another potential
challenge is the persistence by Korean and Japanese precursor manufacturers in purchasing
refined nickel instead of intermediate products. Major precursor manufacturers in Japan and
South Korea prefer dissolving refined nickel on-site into sulphate solution to ensure feedstock
quality and security of supply. They are willing to incur higher cost for their sulphate production
to maintain the quality and consistency of their precursor products."

TDT

JB

I forgot to add I read somewhere, can't remember where, that Korean and Japanese companies will only consider class 1 nickel produced from sulphides for conversion to sulphate. The reason being the "class 1" nickel produced from other sources wasn't pure enough resulting in problems with the batteries it was used in. I'll try and find the article this was in.

TDT

JB

Good question. No idea but I would have thought had it been around the $8/lb to $8.50/lb level we would be seeing NPI operations making a move into matte/sulphate conversion now. If the price point for greenfield projects and the re-starting of mothballed brownfield ones is in the region of $10/lb. you would have to assume that NPI to matte to sulphate is north of that.

Assumption, as you know, is the mother of all feck ups so don't hang your hat on any of that. Even if the Chinese do innovate, as they've done in the past, at what price point, when and how much. Demand for nickel from the emerging EV market is going to be very difficult to keep up with no matter what innovations emerge. The time to discovery, development and name plate in the nickel space haven't changed.

Interesting.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ac77i99k76j8yk/nickel%20lme%202021_02_11.png?dl=0

It's only one day but its a fairly big drop .

TDT

The way to look at this is if demand pushes the market to a level where it becomes attractive to convert NPI into a nickel matte for eventual processing into a sulphate the price of nickel is going to have to be much higher than it is today. How much higher is the question. I don't see a repeat of 2007/08 because there's a raft of NPI operations eyeing the sulphate market just ready to dive in once the price is right. The route for laterites to sulphate for batteries is there, it's just a matter of cost (and ESG).

Andy Home finishes his article with these observation:-

"This new processing pathway from NPI to sulphate compliments an existing Indonesian effort to produce battery-grade nickel directly from laterite ore. If either proves commercially successful, it would upend the argument that only refined nickel or specific intermediate products can generate the right sort of nickel for battery production."

"It’s worth remembering the nickel industry has impressive form when it comes to technical innovation. Nickel pig iron now dominates China’s imports but as a commercial product it didn’t exist until 15 years ago. It was born out of the high prices of the mid-2000s. Bulls betting on yet higher nickel prices this time around should be careful what they wish for."

The cure for high prices is high prices but at this stage we don't know where that price level is on the laterite to sulphate route. We also don't know the implication for ESG. It can be done where ESG is satisfied, for sure, but at what price level?

Amur just needs to be ready to take advantage. As CBS said the other day one of the benefits of them dragging their feet these past few years is the nickel price environment is an awful lot more favourable now than it has been for quite some time. Lets hope they don't miss the boat this time.

TDT

Hazbeen

What's more interesting, IMO, on the materials required for Tesla's 20m EVs is the expectation on demand for the various different materials. In the below link (posted the other day) it's predicted that graphite will be replaced by silicone, there's no shortage of silicone. It's also predicted that lithium will be easy to come by. In his battery day presentation Musk addresses the lithium issue claiming there is no supply problem. It's also predicted that over time cobalt will be thrifted out of batteries entirely. The only raw material where they believe they will struggle to meet demand is nickel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyEzL5u2Mbo

TDT

Thanks to Hazbeen over on the Horizonte BB.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-nickel-ahome/column-chinas-2020-refined-nickel-imports-slump-to-6-year-low-andy-home-idUSL8N2KH44M

The points in the last few paragraphs were just a matter of time.

Amur needs to get a wiggle on.

TDT

Hazbeen

Interesting Andy Home article, especially that last few paragraphs. Inevitable I suppose.

Thanks for posting.

TDT

AH is mentioned on the NRR web site as a director of the company.

TDT

It looks very much like we are destined not to stray too far from 9p either way until news arrives. A gradual and sustained rise will be a good indicator that something is about to give. Until then its groundhog day.

TDT

JB

I think a lot of the criticism and disquiet is not unreasonable. Missed deadlines, broken promises, poor finance deals are there for all to see. In a situation such as this it’s the person at the top that takes the flack and rightly so. The successes and past triumphs stand for nowt if you can’t get over the finishing line.

The thing that keeps me on board is the size of the resource and the fact that I have spoken to RY on several occasions and no MD I don’t think you are the thicko that got caught on a line. I think RY is decent and capable but playing a very difficult hand in an unforgiving environment/ jurisdiction that leaves little or no room for manoeuvre.

If RY does eventually bring home the bacon, and I think he will, he will instantly morph from zero to hero in the blink of an eye. That’s just the way of it.

TDT