Member Info for trev79

Jonesrichard I totally admire your positivity, what do you see as the most likely outcome over the next few months for Sirius and the share price.
We desperately need sentiment to improve prior to a deal if there is significant dilution. When you think of all the times in the past that Sirius could have got away a capital raise at a much higher price, this current situation is dire.
Blimey if memory serves me right we got capital raises away at a higher price when we did not have planning.
I am forever hopeful and have to be but loads of parties very keen to get in and prepared to offer a royalty deal seems the only way that our shares could possibly regain most of their lost value in the short term.
Long term 30 to 50p could still be possible with the dilution likely at this dire price but this could only be in the very very long term.
Would love to be pleasantly surprised but it has been such a dire year.
Won’t sell a single share, but like most long term holders, apart from being certain there will be a deal I simply do not know the level of interest and ability of Sirius to negotiate an acceptable deal.

Jonesrichard been trying to buy a few more recently, but like you won’t be selling a single share.
It would be lovely if we found a fantastic solution that took everyone by surprise, after what has been an absolutely dire 15 months.

My view is that there is a market misconception of the chances that they will fail to find a viable solution based on the absolutely dire chain of events and finance failure that has occurred over the last 6 months.
I am not concerned about the company not finding a solution. I am concerned on what impact it will have on the the very long term now value of my investment.
Like all long term holders I hope that the outcome can be as reasonable as possible, accepting very sadly that the failure of st2 has totally changed the landscape for the short, medium and long term value of the company.
However I still do see long term value, which is why I will not sell a single share.
I appreciate your comments and input to the debate.

Absolutely yellow. I have been invested here since 2013. There will be a solution. The huge problem is that sentiment is completely on the floor, nothing material has gone wrong on the project risk side. Everything was infact going really well, until the financing problem have obviously completely destroyed sentiment.
Long term shareholders have been hit really hard, many are now unable and for good reason unwilling to invest more. New investors are very thin on the ground as clearly the press coverage over the last 6 months has been correctly dire and the share price chart shows a diabolical slump from 38p in August 18 to 3.48p today.
Many of us have been completely burnt, and there are no new buyers = extremely low sentiment!
In reality project risk was much much higher back in late 2016 when st1 was completed - that should tell you there will be a solution but I beta buck is correct with sentiment on the floor there is no telling what the short term impact of a solution being found will have on the share price.

If shareholder sentiment was not on the absolute floor and was trading around where it was a year ago, the terms of the likely deal would not be as dilutive for long term shareholders.
That is the reality of the situation.
I am not sure I see anything that can improve sentiment now prior to a deal, which means it will be a long long time in the future when I will see a return on my long term investment.
An awful set of circumstances, but as I have said previously I like many long term holders have taken the decision not to sell and I won’t be. With a solution to fund the initial scope there can still be significant value for long term holders even with heavy dilution, but that is now going to be a long way into the future, providing the project is then eventually fully funded through debt and comes to fruition.
£2 a share is clearly never now going to ever happen (however I greatly admire jonesrichard as a genuine long term holder with a positive outlook). 30 to 40p though with some dividend I still think could happen one day which is why I am not selling a single share)

Exactly sentiment is everything.
Project risk was much higher back in November 16 when st 1 was successfully raised. The big big difference was that sentiment was much much higher.
Project risk is now reduced from then but sentiment is on the absolute floor.

The problem at the moment is sentiment. It remains on the floor. Nothing has changed with the project risk.
Rusirius point about timing is entirely valid. They would easily have got a equity raise away at a much higher price in the summer of 2018, which would have resulted in much less dilution.
I always expected if further equity raises were required it would happen at a higher price as project risk reduced, how wrong was I.
We just have to hope that sentiment picks up dramatically before we resolve the funding issue for the initial works.
It will get resolved but the terms are going to be crucial for future long term value ahead.

If there was a 30% royalty deal done it would still be better than raising through equity at the current levels. Either sentiment changes quickly and an equity raise becomes slightly more palatable or a royalty deal must be the best option for protecting long term share value.
That is the stated aim of Fraser from the conference call.
How knows what will happen but sentiment can change, in the feb prior to planning this share was 7p and went to 25p quickly just on speculation.
Holding now for the very long term and felt reassured that there can be a way forward following the conference call.

Thank you for your positive posts. In a similar position to yourself and agree with your sentiments.

Aubrey I agree with your assessment, I hope very much things can improve for long term holders soon.
It is more than possible that GK has been hit hard like very many long term holders.

We have to hope the share price can improve substantially before we have to do a deal. Sentiment is at the lowest I have ever known it is totally on the floor and hardly surprising but maybe it can change?
Number of new shares is obviously going to depend on the issue price, after yesterday we do have clarity on the amount required to move forward at least.

Very very poor sentiment and perceived financial risk is why it is priced at 3p. After yesterday I am confident that Fraser will deliver a workable solution to move forward. He was controlled and measured.
However it is crucial for the long term value of the share that sentiment vastly improves before it becomes time critical to get a deal done. We don’t have much so that is the crucial unknown for me, not now in my view whether of not a way forward will be found.
As a very long term holder I took the view after September that I would stay invested, that is what I will do.

I wish to thank you for your positive posts over the last few months. It has been an awful time for all long term holders, and your posts have brought some much needed optimism.
After what happened I decided that after almost 6 years of investment I was not going to sell, today for the first time since September I feel there is a viable way forward.
Undoubtedly for long term value an awful lot is going to depend on the amounts of dilution. The price of an new issue is critical. However after today and listening to the conference call I felt Chris was measured, controlled and sounded like a man in tune with events. He did not sound under pressure and it is clear that the new plans have been well thought out.
It is important all long term holders realise that project wise all is going well, project risk has not increased - we are where we are because of perceived finance risk.
What needs to happen now is for perceived finance risk to reduce substantially and quickly and be reflected in the share price prior to the conclusion of a financing package for the 600m dollars required. If it is to be a strategic partner stake and taking fraser’s words that there are various interested parties, as a long term holder we have to hope that goes at as high a price as possible. This has the biggest implication on where the share price can get to in 3/4 years which I and others fully intend to hold on for now.

Where can you access the call? Been trying to find it.

What is clear after today:
The strategy to hold through planning and hold through st 1 and st2 has not been successful. The share price is as of today lower than prior to planning. There is no reward for those long term holders who have held through these 3 huge events.
I fail to logically see how the capital raising has taken place at anywhere near optimum timing. To raise at I assume now 15p some 29 months after st1 went at a higher price of 20p cannot be considered a good outcome.
Unless I am missing something it seems that the convertible bonds must be a requirement stipulated to bring the rest of the funding into play, as why else are they required now?
Having just read the RNS fully, it is clear that today does not mean St2 is in the bag, the credit facility is conditional on full take up of the bonds. You have to assume that CF is very confident on this, but this is clearly required and by the end of October. It would seem now that it is another wait until September/October for confirmation that we are fully financed.
As a long term holder I now have to accept that any viable target price that I may have, is further off than before. I will not be selling and will just have to wait longer than I anticipated for substantial capital appreciation.
We have been here before.

Jonesy the main thing is that you kept the faith. As long term holders we have been tested, and it is great that you are now feeling positive again.
I don’t think anybody can really guess the immediate reaction, we will see.

Gk thanks very much for the concise reply, much appreciated. That logic makes sense to me.

Obvoiusly sentiment comes into it as well, and my word it is high time that that changed.
What has surprised me is how sentiment was sky high in the run up to st1 when the risks were much higher yet sentiment in the lead up to st2 has basically been on the floor since September.
It could well be about to change - a fully funded mine, almost 4 years on from sweating over a few votes going the right way!

Do you now think it will go at a price below the current market price?
Could it not follow something similar to st 1, I.e. the market reacts hopefully positively to the debt announcement and a placement/ block building is arranged for next week. They set a range a few days before? Was st 1 issue not set between 30p and 20p and admittedly it went at 20p.
I have no complaints though, st 2 is transformational, and removes more risk than any other event.

I would hope that a placement of new shares takes place after a positive market reaction to an agreed debt announcement - something Gk alluded to months ago.
Anyway as a very long term holder with a significant holding, if true this is day we have been waiting years for, so fingers crossed the deal is on favourable terms.
Having held through planning and st 1, st 2 has been a long time coming.

Could there be a glimmer of hope that this farce might be recoverable? Down 90% on my investment, have zero confidence in any words that come out of Mr Duncan's mouth after the farce of the last 3 years. Will not sell, it's not worth it. Complete mis-management. If they keep the loss reduction rate down, there is still a model for profit, but anybody really got any confidence that this will happen?