Member Info for trev79

Westie, just spotted the podcast and a decent listen. I sense the disappointment from GC at the current share price, which I guess all us long term holder would share. As Hayden alluded to anyone jumping in now, would be coming in at a time when many hopefully value changing events are going to take place over the coming months. So yes frustrating that the price hasn't moved significantly already after being invested since June 2020 but I thought Hayden sounded very confident of things moving at pace now. It all depends on the environmental meeting and it's clear at the moment they don't know when that will be (due to the new government etc) and so everything else must follow from that.
Depends which way you look at it but with these delays a big fundamental the potash price has gone up significantly and I think one of them said it really couldn't be a better time to be arranging financing. Hopefully the SP does have a sustained rise in anticipation to reduce dilution, I think Hayden with his vast experience knows how to to time and conclude such deals, so everything to be positive and confident about I think. Ultimately I think this now looks like an even better project than the one we originally invested in, I think the market will realise the value in time.
We got an idea of what may happen in Jan and Feb last year when excitement built about the mine licence which if think about it was just as critical (if not more) in terms of government approval as the environmental. I personally like GC's ethos of doing things correctly and right way and it will be of great value when the mine is built.

Apologies Westie my mistake. Sorry I had to read it really quick while busy working. I think that may have quietly been dropped.
I got all the reassurance I need from 'The Company expects to be in a position to provide significant further detail before the end of Q4 2021' with regards to financing etc because it is natural that construction should then be able to follow soon after.
I guess yes that will slip into Q1 next year but for me that is not a biggie, it is getting the environment permit and the then the finance package. I think the biggest piece of news here to anyone who does follow EML closely or anyone looking to invest is the Potash price increase. I guess most on here knew that and so had factored it in though.
For me construction starting a little later is not too important but apologies for my slip in my hurry.

Very happy with the RNS, Graham and the team have made a lot of progress. The increase in the potash price is the most significant piece of news here. The reason for the delay in environmental approval is clearly explained, and I take away that once this comes through which it will everything else is progressing well in the background.
I think the fact that he stills says he hopes to start construction by the end of Q4 is significant. There should be a lot of positive news over the next few months.

Same here Westie, I've been sitting out recently as there has been a lot of silly and unpleasant stuff going on. I remain fully invested and hopefully there will a lot of positive news coming over the next few months.

There has obviously now been a delay to the environmental permit from that expected. However I don't see this currently as anything to be majorly concerned about. It will begin to affect to timelines etc if it goes on significantly longer.
It has provided a buying opportunity for some (I am considering buying a few more but had made my last purchase). Think GC has probably decided there is little value in doing more roadshows and providing further commentary whilst he awaits the approval of the environmentals.
I expect the share price to react positively when this comes in. So not concerned.

Westie this may be too simplistic but it is possible that the price rise yesterday morning was just due to the director purchasing these shares in batches of 100k shares in quick succession!

In any event a reasonably large (by directors standards) is a positive in my view.

It is a little hint. All is well here I think.
It is a bit frustrating recent market movements but as long as the current price does not materially effect the finance terms in a negative way then it's not really something to be too concerned about. It is a buying opportunity for some.
Testpack seems to have correctly anticipated how the market would react to the lack of real news over the last few months and the announcement of the possible phased approach. We can all sit here and wish we had done similar to increase our holdings but the truth is the environmental RNS could easily have dropped earlier and when it does I don't think this share will be staying around 5p for very long. The environmental locks the door to everything else.
The phased approach possibilities were about proving to potential financers that there was more than one way to develop a successful project. I think it shows that. Hopefully GC and HL are able to go with the development that they believe best optimises long term shareholder value, but what the phased work has done is strengthen Emmerson's hand I think in negotiations.
The environmental permits may be taking a little longer than anticipated to come through but that could well have nothing to do with the company. I just intend to hold now.

It depends if you view the exercise of warrants in the company as a positive step or not? Whilst it is dilution it is more funds to help grow the company from where it is today.
The warrants were already out there. I would take the view that the fact they have been exercised now is a vote of confidence in what the company hopes to achieve over the next few months. There is of course the other view that they may just have been cashed for a short term profit, we will never know.
We may have to get further used to warrants and them being cashed as I would expect they may well pay some sort of part in the overall financing package when we get there.
I have topped up today, was fortunate I guess not to have time to buy on Friday but I've now reached my share number target and that will be it for me in terms of new investments.

Westie I personally think GC comes across fine. He has now done maybe 6 or 7 of these presentations in the last 6 weeks. It isn't targeted at us, i.e those of us who have done a lot of research and have possibly been invested for a while. It is all about drumming up some new interest from new investors, I hope it does that over the coming weeks.
GC has the skill set to build the mine that is the important thing.
I havent seen the presentation but intend to buy more on Friday and then I hope it is a case of being patient.

This will be the first public presentation HL has been on since he stepped down as CEO in July last year. I feel this will give some more insight on where they are on financing.
Hopefully the market takes a few days to absorb any new news as I get paid next Friday and have already decided I will make one more purchase while it is still at this price as I had thought EML would have risen in anticipation of the forthcoming (hopefully good) news on environmental permits etc

Just bought another batch of shares today. I personally expect the environment permits within the next month now.

It may well be that the share price rises quite a bit just in anticipation of news. I think we got a decent hint of this from late december to Feb, when it began to move in late december just purely in anticipation of the mining licence. GC did well here to hold off on his capital raise by around 8 weeks. Obviously we need the strategic deal before we can conclude financing. So it really comes down to do we think there are viable interested parties who would be interested in becoming strategic partners? I have concluded clearly yes and not just OCP although like all they would make the most obvious hints and to be fair GC was prepared to talk quite openly and dropped a few hints in his recent presentation. Are market movements in the potash price etc moving the right direction for the attractiveness of the project I think Yes.
So if I am confident that a strategic investor will come on board the question mark is the amount of dilution. Emmerson have put themselves wisely in a position I feel where they have not signed any off-takes and I do feel that was a good call in negotiations. We don't know how much dilution there will be etc and how good a deal we can get but on that front I am satisfied by HL's experience and success in his involvement in previous financings.
There will be dilution but when that is announced I do feel very confident that a finance deal for the rest of the funding required will be concluded. I feel confident because I think the economics of the project speak for themselves, the low capex, high margin (even with the potash price at the absolute low end the economics are sound). Once financing is concluded and construction is started I see limited risks in the development due to the lack of aquifers, no shaft, good infrastructure, stability in Morocco, GC very experienced in Potash mines at the helm.
So when we start construction I would be confident of the projections of first production in 2 years.

Therefore once we get the ducks in the row this year I see this as a company whose value will rise substantially in time. Of course it could rise due to the herd coming on board prior to strategic partner/financing, and if it does that would be most welcome for LTH's as will decrease dilution (that is the reason GC is doing all these investor presentations to increase awareness)

Yes there are uncertainties over the phased approach. I think GC was clear in his most recent presentation that option a is still preferred but being able to show that another approach is possible is of benefit in negotiations.

I think some bought in Jan/Feb without doing thorough research possibly due to the spike. If you bought at 8 I would not worry one bit, just research the project more and you should be calmed.

There is a lot of news flow to come over the coming months.

The environmental permits are now crucial. Without them we can't progress. When we have these GC and HL will be in a strong position to progress on the matters which will start to unlock the real value here.

When these permits come and GC has stated very confident in the next couple of months, then the economics of this project are there for all to see.

I was surprised how openly GC was prepared to talk about OCP at this stage. Another solid presentation from GC.

I would expect the environment permits in around a month.

I didn't read the RNS as a confirmation they are going to go with the phased and or extended development approach just confirmation that see this a very much viable and offering the opportunity to substantially increase ebitda and npv in a possible phase 4 production.

I don't think it's a commitment at this stage that they will go with this approach, merely letting the market and potential financers / partners know that this is a viable alternative option from the initial plan.

He see it merely as something with improves our hand in negotiations and offers more options for securing a good finance deal which boost shareholders value and sets us along the path of delivering the project.

The lack of timescales on the phased approach I presume is deliberate at this stage and will become more apparent if and when this plan is decided upon.

Overall a positive RNS.

Missed it. Does anyone know if the video will be made available to watch anywhere?

Just bought some more, may be my last purchase as have almost reached the number of shares I wanted.

I enjoyed watching the video. I am more positive to the guys in the video but I thought their video was informative, and there was one discrepancy that I hadn't noticed that was worth noting.
Not overly concerned about the precise price of potash at this point as shown by the FS the mines fundamentals of low capex, low costs to port etc make it profitable on all the reasonable price assumptions.
I think we need to remember that these guys review different company's each month, so their research whilst good is obviously going to miss one or two things. To be fair they welcome comments, so I say to them carry on what you do, as it was entertaining.
I do disagree with the points about over supply of potash, (the shipping points maybe had something to them, but I doubt many of us have bought in here solely on the precise quoted costs of shipping to Brazil).
So still positive but may now wait for the news now, rather than buy more. There should be something about the environmental permits soon.

Westie. Going to watch the GC interview tonight. I would hope that the price moves in anticipation and when we have some more news which will be coming. Not concerned about the price at the moment, it is an opportunity to buy a few more at a low price. Get paid next week, so will be doing what I normally do and buying a few more.
Agree with the comments on GC he has been a very good appointment, Hayden always said he needed someone with more operational knowledge/skills to more the project forward into production and I really think we found the right guy based on the way he comes across. Equally Hayden was the reason I got interested in looking into investing in Emmerson in the first place. Of course the low capex, great infrastructure already there at port, close to port, high margins are obvious but when you look at Hayden's track record on financing it really is impressive. He also comes across well in interviews.
I think we should be valued more at the current stage but's it not a big issue to me that we are not yet as I do think other's will notice this project and invest and when they do the share will rise accordingly. I think we got a little hint of that from end of December to Feb.

Of course Capex costs could increase if he sees a viable way of extending the scope of the project through SOP playing a bigger part but I meant Capex costs related to the original plan. I think the news on the SOP scoping study could be very interesting for us when it comes, which I assume could be before a further update on the possible phased approach.
Also awaiting the environmental permits which should come relatively soon I think.

Hi lew and all good posts today. Just to say the review into a phased approach is still ongoing, I anticipate that's GC's intention is to look for some earlier revenue streams as Redroy has noted but also possibly some cost efficiencies that may slightly reduce Capex costs. Not saying that is a given but I think there is a slight potential I certainly don't think he is likely to go with the phased approach if it results in any significant increase in Capex costs. Hopefully the detailed review that he is undertaking results in some opportunities to further improve the project. I don't anticipate an update on this for a couple of months as I imagine GC, HL and the team are carrying out a lot of work on this at the moment.
On another note please to see a truce between Testpack and other board members. In my view Testpack has made some detailed, valuable contributions to the board and is a thoughtful poster. I think it's pretty clear he wants this to succeed as much as everyone and I appreciate his posts. Everyone is welcome to filter anyone they want and let's keep this board free of petty disagreements and insults.
Most of the time it is a very civil sensible board which is great.