Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I am trying to take the GC interview as some sort of a positive. It has clearly had no impact on the market though.
The key points I think I got was clarity that the ESIA was not rejected at the regional level - it has been referred by the regional authorities to national level. (this was not clear in the RNS) If the ESIA has not been rejected at regional level then that is somewhat reassuring and would explain why EML do not have further mitigations planned. GC didn't really go into any detail as to why this has gone to the national level, apart from saying with hindsight it wasn't too much of a surprise (or words to that effect)
We now know the decision at the national level will not be soon or soonish. I agree that this must be RNS'd as soon as EML know the date of the meeting that he confirmed the project will be on the agenda of.
Top post testpack3.
These shares cost £15k. GC now has a few more shares than me but a much lower average. Why because he waited until after the dreadful RNS last week before doubling his shareholding. I expect most LTH's are in the same situation. 3 years of investing in EML to be nearly 50% down on the investment, due the dreadful RNS from last Thursday.
I am seeing the purchase as a small indication of confidence in the project but only that. There are so many unanswered questions. When is the meeting at a National level with regards to ESIA? Is it thought by the company to be next week, next month or next year?
Why was the ESIA not able to be approved at the regional level? What were the reasons? Have the company got further mitigations planned to ensure it is approved at the national level or was it not approved because the regional authority just felt it was to important a decision for them? (which I think is very unlikely - but due to the poor wording on the RNS could be the case)
If GC came out and did some interviews explaining he could provide much needed for clarity. Instead they are all buying a 'few' more shares which whilst it is welcome to a certain extent, is not something a long term holder could sensibly do at the moment because the RNS lacks any substantial clarity which makes investing any more at the moment just an uneducated gamble.
Obviously the board and GC know much more than we do, should that really be the case after last week's RNS? It shouldn't be as the RNS should have been clear and precise - it wasn't. GC needs to urgently clarify. That is what a competent CEO would do now with many LTH's have very legitimate questions.
Ideas and Chisler you both could in theory be right! That is the point I agreed with Ideas on yesterday the RNS (whether deliberately) or just because it is poorly worded is open to interpretation and ambiguous, which is just not good enough from the company.
Obviously one would hope that Chisler's interpretation is the correct one, but the company have certainly not made it clear!
The RNS yesterday was not a good one. The broker saying it is a positive, doesn't exactly tie in with the RNS does it.
I just hope this works out now, which is not a great place to be.
The RNS is dreadful.
What is also dreadful is the communication or lack of it in the RNS.
When was the local committee decision? If this was not yesterday then why was the result not announced immediately?
What are the expected timeframes for a decision by the central government? Is this to use that awful word imminent or does the company expect this to be 6 months time, they do not give any guidance on this at all?
The communication used to be first rate now they are dreadfully poor. Why can GC not even be clear that the ESIA was rejected by the regional authorities if it was like GW62 says.
Now totally a binary bet on the central government approving and not an investible proposition. Only trouble is as a LTH who took at face value statements like transformational updates in Q1 and the company know of no reason why the ESIA will not be approved, I now find myself significantly underwater in a company and board that quite frankly after today it is hard to have any confidence in.
Totally let down by GC, I swear today he mentioned issues he never had before.
The decision now is whether to take the loss or hold out possibly more in hope that expectation.
Clarke could at least to a round of interviews with LSE and Proactive to clarify matters and further explain the going on? Why is he failing to do that? He should be out of common decency for long term shareholders, he wasn't media shy 2 years ago.
I bought this share because of the capabilities that were evident in Hayden Locke, I note he has bought more today but I agree that means nothing after the appalling RNS today.
Some decent posts have been removed on that thread, including 2 I posted, so seems a bit ridiculous to me.
Westie what are you current thoughts? Do you think surely can't be much longer for ESIA? I will start to get seriously concerned if it not there by August as I am sure there are ramifications on the Singapore deal if we have not progressed by September. I thought the same thing last year but then it was resolved for another 12 months.
There is no communication and I just hope that is because GC does not want to say anything now before he can announce not everything but a very large amount of positive information on one go.
I honestly thought EML would have had the ESIA 2 years ago, I never saw it as a big hurdle having had the mining permit, which shows what I knew. It has been a very frustrating 2 years but it does remain the case that once the ESIA is forthcoming the economics of this mine are more compelling than they were when I initially invested due to the increased potash price.
However there are so many things now that we have not been updated on. Cost are sure to a have increased with inflation as it is. What about the SOP feasibility, the SALT by product.
Is Hayden still involved on the financing side? It was him that really attracted me to EML prior to GC's appointment. GC was brought in to build and then run the mine, hopefully we have progress soon.
a welcome few days with the share price, I think a little indication of what may happen once the ESIA arrives.
I bought a very small amount last week, as I've reached the threshold of shares I was looking to have in EML and now have them with an average a very little under 5p which was something I never thought I'd manage.
I didn't have time to post last week as was on holiday but my take on the RNS was that the awarding of the ESIA was now very almost, all but there. It sounded very much that Graham was hoping to include this alongside the slightly delayed quarterly update and financial accounts but due to timing delays just wasn't quite able to do so. I felt after reading the RNS that we will have to await just a few further weeks but that is just my positive take on the RNS.
I very much feel now that it is coming soon and patience of all long term holders will soon be rewarded. When it lands we will no doubt see a lot more of GC and a big marketing push (which they have had a long time to prepare) to gain share price traction prior to financing. Testpack has been spot on again that the Q and A would be delayed and will not happen until the ESIA is granted.
I am feeling the most positive I have been in months, hopefully it is well placed.
The seemingly endless waiting for the ESIA has been tedious and frustrating for all shareholders and no doubt for GC who wants to get on and build the mine. When he gets the ESIA after sticking to the principle of doing things the right way, it will no doubt be the start of a fruitful partnership between EML and the Moroccan authorities.
Agreed Mr Jinx, may as well have not invested 3 years ago. Could have just looked at this now and put money in.
Yes the decline has been even longer than TP mentioned. The news flow mentioned in the quarterly update RNS in January has simply not happened as of yet. Of course we are still in Q1 so there is always next week.
It's because the fundamentals are still here that I am still invested and you are correct a paper loss is just that but it's a definite truth that any long term investor who bought in from around May 2020 onwards has now wasted their time and capital being invested.
I am struggling to understand now how Emmerson's competent team are finding it so difficult to get the ESIA over the line in a timely manner. It has to come soon. It's approval is in everybody's interests including the Moroccan authorities who will obviously gain through the economic benefits this will bring. Emmerson have had plenty of time to address concerns and the authorities have had plenty of time to consider and approve so it simply must be coming soon now.
Still invested and likely to buy a few more next week but hindsight is a wonderful thing. TP took a good balanced call and correctly predicted what would happen from Jan onwards, I was too optimistic that the news suggested would come.
Testpack you were spot on in your post as exactly what you predicted has happened. I hoped that the ESIA would be forthcoming by now and haven't sold any unfortunately. There has now been no value in having been invested in this company over the last nearly 3 years as could have just invested now at lower price. As shown by the evidence of yesterdays post by a new poster some are now looking to do just that. Timeframes have been consistently missed there is no getting away from that but I still feel the fundamentals are there and the ESIA will be forthcoming otherwise I would have sold up.
I agree Westie and haven't sold any for the same reasons, but I will openly admit we need the ESIA soon.
Testpack was absolutely spot on when he told me 6 weeks ago that this would drift.
If there are no known further issues with ESIA approval since the previous update then it surely must come soon now.
Could not agree more. There has been little of value to read for a while. I tried to sum up my current views a few weeks ago, but it soon got hidden away by a load of arguments and personal insults.
Testpack was correct in their view that this would drift, hopefully the drifting drops very soon and we see some sustained progress with the share price.
Is anybody buying more at the moment or are most long term holders now waiting for further news?
I am wondering if this share price is now going to really start moving in a positive direction now.
I think on balance it was a positive update. I think it is clear the ESIA will eventually come, there have been very detailed discussions and the company have made very robust plans to accommodate what is required. What we don't know is what extras costs this will bring.
I would not expect extra costs to be substantive to the overall extremely sound business case of the mine, so once the ESIA does come then I would anticipate that financing discussions are now very well progressed and hopefully a string of very positive financing RNS's could reasonably quickly follow this. Graeme has suggested positive news flow in Q1 which I would like to think he would not have mentioned if he was not confident of the ESIA coming in this quarter.
I may be wrong but I think from the update and the non binding memorandums of understanding (take or pays) it's now pretty clear that the current plan is for the product to be exported and OCP are not deemed likely to be involved to keep the product in Morocco. I could be wrong and I guess it may change. The economics of exporting are still extremely good with very low costs to the port at Casablanca which is one of the things which got me interested in investing in Emmerson in the first place.
Worth noting that the potash price is still very high compared to where it was when the original feasibility study assumptions were made - so the financing case should be more compelling that it was back 2/3 years ago - when in my view it was already compelling. Just need the ESIA!
As we reach the end of the year, I like many feel disappointed with the current share price and the lack of the ESIA.
I still though remain very confident that it will come. I still remain fully invested and have added in small increments of late.
Very little return on my capital from when I first invested in June 2020 but hopefully this soon progresses at speed in the coming months. I have nothing to suggest that the ESIA will not arrive and when it does the fundamentals that attracted us in the first place are still very much there in abundance.