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Clearly the new warrants have an impact on terms of further dilution in the future but I haven't really worked out to how great an extent. I do not see them as overly significant when the EISA is forthcoming. The business case for this mine is more compelling now than it was 3 years ago (and it was compelling then) due to the increased potash price. Despite market turmoil it should still be more than feasible to execute a finance package to build the mine that results in a substantial increase in the share price as the company grows over time.
The sound financials for this project are still very much there, but the now extreme delay in terms of expectations as to when the EISA will be forthcoming is now of concern. Many have been very patient. I actually thought getting the mining licence was the key fundamental step to progress this and that was I think granted getting on for 2 years ago, how wrong was I.
Still fully invested here but obviously now my capital would have been better used elsewhere over the last few years, as I am now almost back at break even with this share. If only GC could provide some more clarity on what is going on, saying they have met all the extra requirements but then indicating they have no idea when the EISA may be granted after saying in the summer of 2021 that was imminent does inevitably lead people to speculate and increases uncertainty.
I am hopeful it all gets resolved soon as patience is rewarded.
Basically we just need the environmental, I think we all hope it comes soon. When it comes the share will re-rate. Like everyone I expected it a lot earlier. I haven't seen anything to indicate it won't come. so it is a case of being patient.
Very informative presentation. It answered my questions on further equity and the way forward now.
There is no doubt going to be a slight delay to the planned start of construction and it's obvious that the Environmental permit needs to land before debt talks can conclude. As Graeme said he was overly optimistic earlier in the year on this but it seems clear this shouldn't be too much longer and then I would really expect Hayden to be more than capable of concluding a decent debt financing package in the new year.
Not much was mentioned on the potential SOP but I expect work on this possibility is still going on in the background, this and the increased salt by product also has the potential to increase the NPV of the project. I don't expect the potash to be sold at $800 a ton but there is no doubt having the off take still available could well turn out to be a trump card.
I also note their confidence now in delivering a full financing package. Will continue to add when I can. A very positive presentation. Great that Graeme has finally got to Morocco, he really was a superb appointment 18 months ago as his skill set will be crucial as the company approaches production.
I agree yesterdays news was good. I did however expect an investment to come at the same time as finalising the debt financing and this has now been pushed back by 6 months I think. It is also a little unclear if we will require further investment or if the rest of the financing package can be just debt. I presume we will need a further investment/equity partner, but this is not clear. This financing can be used to advance pre-construction activities but I presume the construction start before the end of the year is also pushed back. (although what counts as construction or pre construction is a moot point)
That said I fully welcome it and will top up tomorrow. I agree we are substantially under valued.
Westie, just spotted the podcast and a decent listen. I sense the disappointment from GC at the current share price, which I guess all us long term holder would share. As Hayden alluded to anyone jumping in now, would be coming in at a time when many hopefully value changing events are going to take place over the coming months. So yes frustrating that the price hasn't moved significantly already after being invested since June 2020 but I thought Hayden sounded very confident of things moving at pace now. It all depends on the environmental meeting and it's clear at the moment they don't know when that will be (due to the new government etc) and so everything else must follow from that.
Depends which way you look at it but with these delays a big fundamental the potash price has gone up significantly and I think one of them said it really couldn't be a better time to be arranging financing. Hopefully the SP does have a sustained rise in anticipation to reduce dilution, I think Hayden with his vast experience knows how to to time and conclude such deals, so everything to be positive and confident about I think. Ultimately I think this now looks like an even better project than the one we originally invested in, I think the market will realise the value in time.
We got an idea of what may happen in Jan and Feb last year when excitement built about the mine licence which if think about it was just as critical (if not more) in terms of government approval as the environmental. I personally like GC's ethos of doing things correctly and right way and it will be of great value when the mine is built.
Apologies Westie my mistake. Sorry I had to read it really quick while busy working. I think that may have quietly been dropped.
I got all the reassurance I need from 'The Company expects to be in a position to provide significant further detail before the end of Q4 2021' with regards to financing etc because it is natural that construction should then be able to follow soon after.
I guess yes that will slip into Q1 next year but for me that is not a biggie, it is getting the environment permit and the then the finance package. I think the biggest piece of news here to anyone who does follow EML closely or anyone looking to invest is the Potash price increase. I guess most on here knew that and so had factored it in though.
For me construction starting a little later is not too important but apologies for my slip in my hurry.
Very happy with the RNS, Graham and the team have made a lot of progress. The increase in the potash price is the most significant piece of news here. The reason for the delay in environmental approval is clearly explained, and I take away that once this comes through which it will everything else is progressing well in the background.
I think the fact that he stills says he hopes to start construction by the end of Q4 is significant. There should be a lot of positive news over the next few months.
There has obviously now been a delay to the environmental permit from that expected. However I don't see this currently as anything to be majorly concerned about. It will begin to affect to timelines etc if it goes on significantly longer.
It has provided a buying opportunity for some (I am considering buying a few more but had made my last purchase). Think GC has probably decided there is little value in doing more roadshows and providing further commentary whilst he awaits the approval of the environmentals.
I expect the share price to react positively when this comes in. So not concerned.
Westie this may be too simplistic but it is possible that the price rise yesterday morning was just due to the director purchasing these shares in batches of 100k shares in quick succession!
In any event a reasonably large (by directors standards) is a positive in my view.
It is a little hint. All is well here I think.
It is a bit frustrating recent market movements but as long as the current price does not materially effect the finance terms in a negative way then it's not really something to be too concerned about. It is a buying opportunity for some.
Testpack seems to have correctly anticipated how the market would react to the lack of real news over the last few months and the announcement of the possible phased approach. We can all sit here and wish we had done similar to increase our holdings but the truth is the environmental RNS could easily have dropped earlier and when it does I don't think this share will be staying around 5p for very long. The environmental locks the door to everything else.
The phased approach possibilities were about proving to potential financers that there was more than one way to develop a successful project. I think it shows that. Hopefully GC and HL are able to go with the development that they believe best optimises long term shareholder value, but what the phased work has done is strengthen Emmerson's hand I think in negotiations.
The environmental permits may be taking a little longer than anticipated to come through but that could well have nothing to do with the company. I just intend to hold now.
It depends if you view the exercise of warrants in the company as a positive step or not? Whilst it is dilution it is more funds to help grow the company from where it is today.
The warrants were already out there. I would take the view that the fact they have been exercised now is a vote of confidence in what the company hopes to achieve over the next few months. There is of course the other view that they may just have been cashed for a short term profit, we will never know.
We may have to get further used to warrants and them being cashed as I would expect they may well pay some sort of part in the overall financing package when we get there.
I have topped up today, was fortunate I guess not to have time to buy on Friday but I've now reached my share number target and that will be it for me in terms of new investments.
Westie I personally think GC comes across fine. He has now done maybe 6 or 7 of these presentations in the last 6 weeks. It isn't targeted at us, i.e those of us who have done a lot of research and have possibly been invested for a while. It is all about drumming up some new interest from new investors, I hope it does that over the coming weeks.
GC has the skill set to build the mine that is the important thing.
I havent seen the presentation but intend to buy more on Friday and then I hope it is a case of being patient.
This will be the first public presentation HL has been on since he stepped down as CEO in July last year. I feel this will give some more insight on where they are on financing.
Hopefully the market takes a few days to absorb any new news as I get paid next Friday and have already decided I will make one more purchase while it is still at this price as I had thought EML would have risen in anticipation of the forthcoming (hopefully good) news on environmental permits etc