Member Info for trev79

Agreed Mr Jinx, may as well have not invested 3 years ago. Could have just looked at this now and put money in.

Yes the decline has been even longer than TP mentioned. The news flow mentioned in the quarterly update RNS in January has simply not happened as of yet. Of course we are still in Q1 so there is always next week.

It's because the fundamentals are still here that I am still invested and you are correct a paper loss is just that but it's a definite truth that any long term investor who bought in from around May 2020 onwards has now wasted their time and capital being invested.

I am struggling to understand now how Emmerson's competent team are finding it so difficult to get the ESIA over the line in a timely manner. It has to come soon. It's approval is in everybody's interests including the Moroccan authorities who will obviously gain through the economic benefits this will bring. Emmerson have had plenty of time to address concerns and the authorities have had plenty of time to consider and approve so it simply must be coming soon now.

Still invested and likely to buy a few more next week but hindsight is a wonderful thing. TP took a good balanced call and correctly predicted what would happen from Jan onwards, I was too optimistic that the news suggested would come.

Testpack you were spot on in your post as exactly what you predicted has happened. I hoped that the ESIA would be forthcoming by now and haven't sold any unfortunately. There has now been no value in having been invested in this company over the last nearly 3 years as could have just invested now at lower price. As shown by the evidence of yesterdays post by a new poster some are now looking to do just that. Timeframes have been consistently missed there is no getting away from that but I still feel the fundamentals are there and the ESIA will be forthcoming otherwise I would have sold up.

I agree Westie and haven't sold any for the same reasons, but I will openly admit we need the ESIA soon.
Testpack was absolutely spot on when he told me 6 weeks ago that this would drift.
If there are no known further issues with ESIA approval since the previous update then it surely must come soon now.

Good post Westie. I bought a few more today, but I agree with the points that have been made that it has certainly been a frustrating 12 months. The EISA must surely arrive soon now.

Could not agree more. There has been little of value to read for a while. I tried to sum up my current views a few weeks ago, but it soon got hidden away by a load of arguments and personal insults.
Testpack was correct in their view that this would drift, hopefully the drifting drops very soon and we see some sustained progress with the share price.
Is anybody buying more at the moment or are most long term holders now waiting for further news?

Looks like you could be right! Hopefully the positive news flow does start to come.

I am wondering if this share price is now going to really start moving in a positive direction now.

I think on balance it was a positive update. I think it is clear the ESIA will eventually come, there have been very detailed discussions and the company have made very robust plans to accommodate what is required. What we don't know is what extras costs this will bring.

I would not expect extra costs to be substantive to the overall extremely sound business case of the mine, so once the ESIA does come then I would anticipate that financing discussions are now very well progressed and hopefully a string of very positive financing RNS's could reasonably quickly follow this. Graeme has suggested positive news flow in Q1 which I would like to think he would not have mentioned if he was not confident of the ESIA coming in this quarter.

I may be wrong but I think from the update and the non binding memorandums of understanding (take or pays) it's now pretty clear that the current plan is for the product to be exported and OCP are not deemed likely to be involved to keep the product in Morocco. I could be wrong and I guess it may change. The economics of exporting are still extremely good with very low costs to the port at Casablanca which is one of the things which got me interested in investing in Emmerson in the first place.

Worth noting that the potash price is still very high compared to where it was when the original feasibility study assumptions were made - so the financing case should be more compelling that it was back 2/3 years ago - when in my view it was already compelling. Just need the ESIA!

As we reach the end of the year, I like many feel disappointed with the current share price and the lack of the ESIA.

I still though remain very confident that it will come. I still remain fully invested and have added in small increments of late.

Very little return on my capital from when I first invested in June 2020 but hopefully this soon progresses at speed in the coming months. I have nothing to suggest that the ESIA will not arrive and when it does the fundamentals that attracted us in the first place are still very much there in abundance.

Another 14155 just bought. It won't move the market!

I am going to buy a few more tomorrow.

I am thinking of buying a few more tomorrow.

It is a guessing game. I have bought because I see no reason why the approval will not be granted soon.

The approval could now drop at any time. Let's hope so.

Just bought a few more, hopefully a good decision.

Clearly the new warrants have an impact on terms of further dilution in the future but I haven't really worked out to how great an extent. I do not see them as overly significant when the EISA is forthcoming. The business case for this mine is more compelling now than it was 3 years ago (and it was compelling then) due to the increased potash price. Despite market turmoil it should still be more than feasible to execute a finance package to build the mine that results in a substantial increase in the share price as the company grows over time.

The sound financials for this project are still very much there, but the now extreme delay in terms of expectations as to when the EISA will be forthcoming is now of concern. Many have been very patient. I actually thought getting the mining licence was the key fundamental step to progress this and that was I think granted getting on for 2 years ago, how wrong was I.

Still fully invested here but obviously now my capital would have been better used elsewhere over the last few years, as I am now almost back at break even with this share. If only GC could provide some more clarity on what is going on, saying they have met all the extra requirements but then indicating they have no idea when the EISA may be granted after saying in the summer of 2021 that was imminent does inevitably lead people to speculate and increases uncertainty.

I am hopeful it all gets resolved soon as patience is rewarded.

Basically we just need the environmental, I think we all hope it comes soon. When it comes the share will re-rate. Like everyone I expected it a lot earlier. I haven't seen anything to indicate it won't come. so it is a case of being patient.

Just reading some of the document. Thank you for posting. Hopefully we see some positive developments soon.

It must logically be coming soon. I hope to buy a few more next week.

Still fully invested and waiting patiently for developments.

Very informative presentation. It answered my questions on further equity and the way forward now.

There is no doubt going to be a slight delay to the planned start of construction and it's obvious that the Environmental permit needs to land before debt talks can conclude. As Graeme said he was overly optimistic earlier in the year on this but it seems clear this shouldn't be too much longer and then I would really expect Hayden to be more than capable of concluding a decent debt financing package in the new year.

Not much was mentioned on the potential SOP but I expect work on this possibility is still going on in the background, this and the increased salt by product also has the potential to increase the NPV of the project. I don't expect the potash to be sold at $800 a ton but there is no doubt having the off take still available could well turn out to be a trump card.

I also note their confidence now in delivering a full financing package. Will continue to add when I can. A very positive presentation. Great that Graeme has finally got to Morocco, he really was a superb appointment 18 months ago as his skill set will be crucial as the company approaches production.

I agree yesterdays news was good. I did however expect an investment to come at the same time as finalising the debt financing and this has now been pushed back by 6 months I think. It is also a little unclear if we will require further investment or if the rest of the financing package can be just debt. I presume we will need a further investment/equity partner, but this is not clear. This financing can be used to advance pre-construction activities but I presume the construction start before the end of the year is also pushed back. (although what counts as construction or pre construction is a moot point)
That said I fully welcome it and will top up tomorrow. I agree we are substantially under valued.