Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Exactly how on earth is probably recommending an offer of 5.5p a share unlocking the value for shareholders! They even have the nerve in the RNS to state how it represents a significant premium to the share price since sept 17th!
This while their still stated aim is that they are in active discussions for a strategic partner. The timeline of contact with AA as alluded to in the times article does not seem to tally with the conference call from Fraser and the RNS about the review progress from mid nov.
+ remember all previous significant rns’s always had a little paragraph of commments from fraser, we have heard absolutely nothing from him this time.
Awful, dreadful situation.
I always believed in Fraser, how naive I was. Lost I think I have made the decision to do the same as you and yellow and hold. There could be a final knife or there could be a bidding war, although I sadly think that very unlikely.
The events of the last 3 days have changed my view of him, as this is an absolute shafting. I always thought he was a genuine decent man. I still cannot believe it has come to this, the events since sept 18 are beyond all worst case scenarios.
I could not agree with you more. The more I read and having just read the times article this absolutely stinks.
Despair can easily turn to anger.
Why on earth is a capital raise not at least being attempted? I wasted 40 minutes of my life listening to the last conference call, and from that had a settled view that we could carry on and so in the very very long term long term holders would still be fine. To say the offer provides us certainty is so so callous, yes it provides us certainty of never getting our money back on something that a great many of us research very thoroughly and bought into over an extremely long period.
The article strongly implies a different set of facts from those implied on the call, rusirius has articulated what that means perfectly.
Dreadful. A dream dies but my god what a dreadful way for it to go.
Jonesrichard I really hope you will be ok. See my earlier post we have been dreadfully unfortunate, we have lost money but we are not losers.
I have lost a life changing amount, Sirius was my long term plan to finally get on the property ladder and long term pension. It will be impossible to recover the money now.
But it will be possible to recover mentally from the stress and huge financial disappointment over time. I hope you have family you can talk to, mine know everything and it is a very important help.
After this I think I will be done with share investing. Look after yourself. Your posts brought genuine relief over dark times and there was nothing wrong with being optimistic.
This is a complete and utter disaster. I hope all genuine long term holders are going to be ok.
Yellow’s post sums things up perfectly.
How on earth did it come to this? Most of us invested in this originally for all the right reasons. For me it was the fact that it was an ethical mine, with a product to do good. I had a target price to sell the bulk at which I so nearly got, and then the rest was in the pension for the future dividends and to see the project which I knew would be so good for both the area and the UK come to fruition.
To now see this snapped up by a mining conglomerate at an absolute snip stinks. To see it stated that they will use it to help with their green credentials just makes it hurt a bit more.
We were not naive most were very well researched. We all knew there could problems with construction but to see Sirius fail when construction has all gone well is just so sad.
I have lost an absolute packet which will now be crystallised by this takeover. I will not sell until the end now. We have fallen to a truly dreadful set of circumstances. The financing advice that Fraser had from JP Morgan and others must be open to so many questions. To see it snapped up for little more than was raised at st1 is just so bad.
Long term holders don’t fall out we are all hurting, we have been incredibly unfortunate.
It is obviously not 100% removed until we get the RNS! Just as the risk of not getting planning wasn’t removed until we got it by 1 vote!
I personally felt reassured by the RNS and conference call, but as you are not invested you don’t have to be.
30 to 40p in the very very long term - if everything else goes according to plan, but never not just on this news?
The best case is a royalty similar to the Han**** deal but at worst terms , in that event there would be a very major re-rate and fast.
However much I would love that, it is I am afraid very very unlikely.
We can only hope that for once we are pleasantly surprised.
You are obviously very keen to invest if you can then.
With my knowledge of the project accumulated over 6 years I would absolutely love to be able to make my initial investment now. After the last RNS I have zero worry about insolvency, but I and thousands of other long term shareholders are just absolutely gutted that our early investments at what were originally considered low prices have not paid off.
You are correct we do not know what will happen with the deal to get the 600m dollars but you have an incredible opportunity to invest now. With the knowledge you have built up part of you must be tempted to take it, given the amount of time you are spending on here accumulating knowledge!
Long term holders need people like you to get on board now, it is critical sentiment improves quickly as a sadly accept it is very highly likely that a there will be a capital raise. As previously stated if a royalty deal could be done that would be the best outcome, but it is all completely unknown as we no nothing apart from there are various interested parties carrying out due diligence. Go on get on board!
Cf got very unlucky, with certain headwinds and circumstances, as did all long term shareholders.
All long term holders are incredibly disappointed already.
You are studiously watching this board to gain knowledge, before reacting accordingly after a deal is announced then?
If the terms are ok then you may then invest for the mid-term then?
There are probably lots of potential investors doing that. There is certainly no fast money being put in at this stage, with sentiment on the floor.
Hope that things improve from here.
Doubling or tripling the investment now over a very very long time time is what keeps I like many other long term investors invested.
That and wanting to see the project successfully delivered by Sirius, that I have spent years researching and invested in the first place due to its high calibre with regards to the environment, ethical product and job creation in a deprived area.
Jonesrichard I totally admire your positivity, what do you see as the most likely outcome over the next few months for Sirius and the share price.
We desperately need sentiment to improve prior to a deal if there is significant dilution. When you think of all the times in the past that Sirius could have got away a capital raise at a much higher price, this current situation is dire.
Blimey if memory serves me right we got capital raises away at a higher price when we did not have planning.
I am forever hopeful and have to be but loads of parties very keen to get in and prepared to offer a royalty deal seems the only way that our shares could possibly regain most of their lost value in the short term.
Long term 30 to 50p could still be possible with the dilution likely at this dire price but this could only be in the very very long term.
Would love to be pleasantly surprised but it has been such a dire year.
Won’t sell a single share, but like most long term holders, apart from being certain there will be a deal I simply do not know the level of interest and ability of Sirius to negotiate an acceptable deal.
Jonesrichard been trying to buy a few more recently, but like you won’t be selling a single share.
It would be lovely if we found a fantastic solution that took everyone by surprise, after what has been an absolutely dire 15 months.
My view is that there is a market misconception of the chances that they will fail to find a viable solution based on the absolutely dire chain of events and finance failure that has occurred over the last 6 months.
I am not concerned about the company not finding a solution. I am concerned on what impact it will have on the the very long term now value of my investment.
Like all long term holders I hope that the outcome can be as reasonable as possible, accepting very sadly that the failure of st2 has totally changed the landscape for the short, medium and long term value of the company.
However I still do see long term value, which is why I will not sell a single share.
I appreciate your comments and input to the debate.
Absolutely yellow. I have been invested here since 2013. There will be a solution. The huge problem is that sentiment is completely on the floor, nothing material has gone wrong on the project risk side. Everything was infact going really well, until the financing problem have obviously completely destroyed sentiment.
Long term shareholders have been hit really hard, many are now unable and for good reason unwilling to invest more. New investors are very thin on the ground as clearly the press coverage over the last 6 months has been correctly dire and the share price chart shows a diabolical slump from 38p in August 18 to 3.48p today.
Many of us have been completely burnt, and there are no new buyers = extremely low sentiment!
In reality project risk was much much higher back in late 2016 when st1 was completed - that should tell you there will be a solution but I beta buck is correct with sentiment on the floor there is no telling what the short term impact of a solution being found will have on the share price.
If shareholder sentiment was not on the absolute floor and was trading around where it was a year ago, the terms of the likely deal would not be as dilutive for long term shareholders.
That is the reality of the situation.
I am not sure I see anything that can improve sentiment now prior to a deal, which means it will be a long long time in the future when I will see a return on my long term investment.
An awful set of circumstances, but as I have said previously I like many long term holders have taken the decision not to sell and I won’t be. With a solution to fund the initial scope there can still be significant value for long term holders even with heavy dilution, but that is now going to be a long way into the future, providing the project is then eventually fully funded through debt and comes to fruition.
£2 a share is clearly never now going to ever happen (however I greatly admire jonesrichard as a genuine long term holder with a positive outlook). 30 to 40p though with some dividend I still think could happen one day which is why I am not selling a single share)
Exactly sentiment is everything.
Project risk was much higher back in November 16 when st 1 was successfully raised. The big big difference was that sentiment was much much higher.
Project risk is now reduced from then but sentiment is on the absolute floor.
The problem at the moment is sentiment. It remains on the floor. Nothing has changed with the project risk.
Rusirius point about timing is entirely valid. They would easily have got a equity raise away at a much higher price in the summer of 2018, which would have resulted in much less dilution.
I always expected if further equity raises were required it would happen at a higher price as project risk reduced, how wrong was I.
We just have to hope that sentiment picks up dramatically before we resolve the funding issue for the initial works.
It will get resolved but the terms are going to be crucial for future long term value ahead.
If there was a 30% royalty deal done it would still be better than raising through equity at the current levels. Either sentiment changes quickly and an equity raise becomes slightly more palatable or a royalty deal must be the best option for protecting long term share value.
That is the stated aim of Fraser from the conference call.
How knows what will happen but sentiment can change, in the feb prior to planning this share was 7p and went to 25p quickly just on speculation.
Holding now for the very long term and felt reassured that there can be a way forward following the conference call.
Thank you for your positive posts. In a similar position to yourself and agree with your sentiments.
Aubrey I agree with your assessment, I hope very much things can improve for long term holders soon.
It is more than possible that GK has been hit hard like very many long term holders.