Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi OaW,

My post from July when we were 34p (I’m now in profit)....

“Just looking back through the RNS’s

Placing for £30m 8th Dec at £7.90 no placings before that are listed here but obviously there would have been or an IPO since founding in 2014. 4D took over some other companies in the early years so would need cash.

Since then they listed 82349 shares as part of Biomar acquisition 8th April 2016

Then from the 8th Oct 2019 RNS, worth reading again. How close are we to....

“Under the terms of the agreement 4D's proprietary MicroRx® platform will be paired with MSD's expertise in the development and commercialisation of novel vaccines, to discover and develop LBPs as vaccines in up to three undisclosed indications. 4D has the right, subject to certain conditions, to cause MSD to purchase $5 million in ordinary shares in 4D during the first 12 months of the collaboration. In addition to an upfront cash payment, for each indication, 4D will be eligible to receive up to $347.5 million in option exercise and development and regulatory milestone payments, plus tiered royalties on annual net sales of any licensed products derived from the collaboration. MSD will be responsible for development, manufacturing and commercialisation following the exercise of any of its exclusive options.”

Then 18th Feb 2020 placing 4D met conditions to cause MSD to contribute $5m, a total of £22m raised.

Then £7.7m raised on 13th July 2020.

Hardly a habitual diluter on investors. But that said the mcap now is £40m. When you look at what has been raised and what has been achieved and yet aim has attributed hardly any value. Even if you look at the directors buys, significant sums around 90p!

This surely has to be bargain basement territory. It just seems that AIM lets a share price rise, pump and then it just pulls the rug from under it. Catching investors out, taking more money with false dawns as they average down. It’s a cruel market as the SP is not a reflection of our research or our view of value and that’s how us PI’s get done over.

The thing is though it does reach a bottom at some point and then if a couple of price inflections kick in, boom! You then can’t get back on the ladder or you sit an watch and think it will pull back, it doesn’t and then you can run the risk of being spiked.

I do think though stripping it back. If 4D does hit those triggers you can’t hide $347.5m. And there’s more than that. That is when true value will out.

Question is do you buy now or wait for 23p or 5p. Who knows. It could be that 35p is the last of it and it takes off from here. All I will say is we are close now and the directors who are underwater also put more in.

Even though I didn’t buy until after the Feb placing so am now underwater I’m pretty confident to hold here and trust this BoD to do their work. They’ve done pretty well so far but of course we are not at the end yet so jury is still out.”

So yes if we hit the milestones I thi

Better life on proactive. Worth a listen. Sorry if been posted earlier.

https://youtu.be/BjKqwAUiWY4

Trek

Hi No Lupus,

No orders here from me i’m afraid. Just holding what I got for now. Got a long on Bitcoin which if it comes off I will flip some into here if it’s still sub £2 and a couple others.

Been my best week on the markets ever this week.

Looking to cash out soon and put it in GSK and a few others and forget about it but having such fun! Lol!

Here’s a free tip for the BB. GRL, waiting for the final environmental permit, due in 2-3 weeks then it will be producing high grade gold by end of this year. Fully funded, amazing BoD, and quality investors. Emma even answers her phone to PI’s. She’s got a tidy track record as well and Bill Trew who is a legend in mining. So under the radar and relatively low risk. don’t buy on my advice. DYOR as always.

Good luck you and all us little people with our investments

Trek

What a pleasant surprise. As I posted earlier I sold some into the director buy spike and bought most back sub 4p. Got my average down a tad.

This has bounced of the 3.6 support and heading for 5.18 now. Just watch the 20dma cross back up through the 50 and 100dma’s. It’s bottomed.

No idea why, volume not unusual, BTC is 9.5k so what. We have lagged other crypto miners, we always do. Too early to speculate on results, we know difficulty is harsh and cost will be low as the buggers have been grounded. So it just leave the chart. At least something makes sense! Lol!

Trek

£1

I am bullish here and am holding but I would not be surprised to see a 50% fib retrace to circa 110.

The MM makes a market and gets paid from the spread so needs volume. Loads of skittish PI’s would have bought at £2 and then sell when £150 goes. Why? It’s the same company and prospects, same trading. If you can’t manage a 50% retrace on an aim investment it’s perhaps not for you.

Always keep some powder dry to average down or if the trend breaks sell some and average back in again. What doesn’t all too often work is buying all in selling all out and then sitting on the sidelines afraid to pay more to get back in again if it rises and suffering from the ‘if only’s!’.

Alternatively you can just place your bet and hold, just follow the RNS’s.

AIM is a nightmare and you have to have clarity about what you are doing. Follow your own research and have a basic understanding of charts and what news is expected and when.

All imo.

Trek

The trial is started, they are recruiting. So will now dose as a pt becomes available. From memory I think DP explained in last proactive interview.

Re the news flow look at summary on latest ppt on website. noix posted link below.

Trek

Like I said she’ll get the shakes!

I would not be surprised to see a campaign of fake news follow next. Trial inaccuracies, suspect data points, allergic responses, raising money at 90p, another GDR, RM is an alien!

It’ll come. This stock is not for PI’s all the little people need to move on now please!

Trek

Hi Rtest,

Yes they have started, 1st July updated. The form is confusing. I was worried that it was just the Plymouth hospitals at first as it’s would be very unlikely they’d get 90pts from the 13 cases in the county! But it is uk wide. See 2 July RNS.

Trek

Thanks guys,

I have added a few gold miners now. Spread the risk. Only bought the ones that tick the finance box. I have always had a bit of gold in the pf. Did well from AAZ and bought GGP a while back.

Added to GRL and SHG recently and bought here and SGZ today. Have a few KAT as a trade but the delay means it’s down atm I will likely sell into next news there as BoD week, still it was always a trade that one not a ‘buy and forget’ like here.

A nice quote from George Soros

“When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational."

Good luck with your investments.

Trek

OaW,

My son who works in NHS blood sciences, concurs. Not much to get excited about in terms of potential revenues.

It’s the hidden LFT pointer that is the gem.

Trek

Bought in here and at PUR today. Paid 90p probably top of chart but it’s been on the watchlist for ages and only just managed to free up some funds, will add a few later so will average out up or down.

Have been looking at financed miners with proven resource that are about to hit the production price inflection point. Can’t see many better bets in that category than PUR, SGZ and GRL so have spread the risk. Just the Scottish weather to worry about here I think!

Macro is taking care of itself EU loans agreed, US fiscal stimulus and QE on top of QE has gotta at some point send gold on another run.

+30% premium not to be sniffed at. On the downside I see less domestic/jewellery demand because of recessionary pressures but that should be more than covered by currency hedging. Atb.

Trek

Yes Milcait,

That is correct.

Having read the last few posts I was about to say the BB here and at SNG have served its purposed and are now pretty much a waste of time! The yanks are coming what a load of tosh!

Trek

HZD, a biotech that I have traded successfully although it’s only on my watchlist now has just announced a US IPO to raise cash via ADR’s. Given that DDDD are considering the same route it may be worth adding HZD RNS’s to your newsflow just to see how it goes.

Trek

Yep, what if they owned both.

Trek

Junior2020,

With respect, this is AIM, I expect to get caught the wrong side occasionally and be 50-60% down. But if my research is correct it will come good so I wherever possible I try and keep some powder dry to top up on a 50% drop if I have not sold before and bought back lower.

The directors here bought heavily circa 90p, and have consistently added at every placing. The chart is good and the last RNS was brill. Why do ‘you’ worry about being in at 56p?

See my post 14th July. There is an upside chance here of 10x plus!

I sold some as was over exposed here but following some other trades and the chart break I am now looking to add again here. Yes at a higher price than I sold at earlier.

Most PI’s don’t understand selling and buying back the same and paying more. Don’t worry it took me years to come to terms with it! Pride!

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Acacia we’re not shafted their MO was to buy a distressed asset and offload them on the market to convert to cash having already made the bulk of their profit. Insti’s and PI’s have completely different agenda’s, risk attitudes and timelines.

Another example, I hold TXP from low teens. North have been a persistent seller and the SP keeps achieving major inflections but they are agnostic and have a different agenda so sell.

As a PI use the knowledge from DYOR to your advantage, buy the seller if there is no underlying reason. like DDDD and ORPH. I have loaded up against the seller and top sliced profit. Thanks Acacia.

Trek

Not always true, some may be offbook or OTC type trades. Granted it’s the aggressors trade that is presented but prices can be agreed between MM’s or MM-Client. From memory it’s in section 8 of the LSE rules.

I tend to look at volume, if volume is high and the overall SP is up over a period of time then that’s good. If there is lots of volume and the SP is down not good. Obviously not tha5 simple but you get the gist.

We may get a pull back tomorrow, well I hope so as I have cash now to add but even if tomorrow volume is high and sp is down over the period the sp is up so it’s still good.

Like I said before a mcap of £300m is significantly undervalued imo. So even buying at £2 say and mcap goes to £600m which I reckon is still cheap sure you haven’t got a 10 bagger from that but you have still doubled your money with not much downside risk from £2.

That is what I think the inst’s are reading. Buy now double money, free carry. Well I have one near free carry here anyways. Looks like the next one is gonna be much easier and a lot less stressful to achieve!

Usual caveats

Trek

30%,

Acquiring 30% or more of total voting rights

The City Code prevents bidders acquiring an interest in shares which results in the bidder holding 30% or more of the total voting rights in the target. However, there are exceptions to this rule which permit acquisitions in the following situations:

from a single shareholder before an offer is announced when it is the only acquisition within a seven-day period
immediately prior to (and conditional on) the announcement of an offer, provided that the offer is recommended by, or the acquisition is made with the agreement of, the board of the target company
after an offer has been announced and where either:
the acquisition is made with the agreement of the target board
the offer, or any competing offer, has been publically recommended by the target board (even if such recommendation is subsequently withdrawn)
the first closing date of the offer, or any competing offer, has passed
the offer is unconditional in all respects
by way of acceptance of the offer
in certain other limited circumstances.

This is an easy to read link....

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk/#stakebuilding

Trek

Late trades...sections g3013 and g3020 key. Nothing sinister and MiFID compliant...

In relation to rule 3012, where two member firms agree at or prior to the time of the trade, the responsibility for trade reporting may be delegated to the other member firm.

The rule recognises that member firms may wish to delegate the trade reporting responsibility to the other member firm. This may arise where a member firm trades infrequently and hence wishes to always delegate the reporting process or where the non reporting member firm wishes to gain protection under the deferred publication facility but the reporting member firm does not.
(Amended N09/17 – effective 3 January 2018)
Standard trade report deadlines [3020-3021]

Where a trade is executed during the trade reporting period, a trade report shall be submitted to the trading system in accordance with the standard trade report deadline.

Guidance to Rule:
The trading system will immediately publish a trade report unless deferred
publication is requested (and the trade qualifies for a delay). (Amended N09/17 – effective 3 January 2018)

And these are the addressable concerns

A member firm shall not:
aggregate trades in order to qualify for treatment under the deferred publication facility; add subsequent trades to a deferred publication in order to increase its size; or
submit or agree to submit a correction for the sole purpose of re-reporting a trade in order to gain or extend a delay in publication.

Less technical explanation.....from FAQ’s

When can the deferred publication regime be used?

A member firm should only request deferred publication where the member firm is dealing on its own account (as principal) and the transaction is between the member firm and its customer.

How can I request deferred publication of a trade?

A member firm may request deferred publication of a trade by submitting a trade report with either the ‘OK’ (for an ordinary trade) or ‘NK’ (for a negotiated trade) trade type. MillenniumIT will determine whether a delay should be applied based on the relevant publication regime.

References..

Handbook
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/rules-regulations/rules-lse.pdf

FAQ’s
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/membership/faqs/rulebook-faq/rulebook-faqs.htm

Trade flags/types
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/prices-and-markets/prices-help/trade-type.htm

Trek

So many PI’s look at the % increase in sp and think it’s done. That is not how you value a stock!

Look at the MCAP, £300m, probably not even the equivalent to what a major hospital in New York has spent on Covid intensive care!

Multiply that by all those hospitals over the world. How much could be saved on ventilation/ICU costs?

£300m ? Nope... none of us are experts but even if we said £1bn you’d still think nope!

Get the gist...

And if you think a vax is gonna save the day I doubt it...

Oxford trial. Great results but...

Only 56 days immunity
Only phase 1 so far
Only healthy people up to age 56 from memory
No in human challenge study
Older people or people with co-morbidities excluded.
Older people etc do not build up such an immune response so how do they know it works.
Ethical hoops to go through
Not all public will agree
Won’t be ready until end of year earliest
Logistics in vax program

Could go on.....

SNG001, safely tolerated, amazing efficacy ready to mass produce.

The market wants those shares. Expect a big price pull back soon. As far as institutional investors are concerned move over PI’s this is for them.

Imo switch off and just listen to RNS’s and what the company says, this is gonna be smeared, tree shaken, ALGO traded you name it.

Buy, hold forget and wait for the outcome from here.

Usual caveats

Trek