Member Info for TrekMadone

Was also going to be a slow start here following news. So many folk would have got put off by the drop to the 6’s and likely promised themselves they’d sell on the next RNS. I really don’t blame them. It’s not nice seeing red and then having a news hiatus.

I do think this will tick up now, I am hoping for double figures, let’s see. What would really help is if TB could keep this momentum going now with interviews and a steady newsflow. That will defo see us move north out of potential and towards value!

Trek

“major FOMO coming up. could get spud RNS on Monday for arguably the biggest drill of the year. Expect to see 30p + on that announcement”

Must say I am very surprised (not disappointed though) at the lack of posts on this BB. Many other popular shares on LSE have hundreds or even over 1000 in a day. I use it as a gauge towards sentiment. For good news periods stocks get lots of posts in anticipation. It’s also worth noting that on bad news or no news posts do decline and posters move on.

So what I am saying is I don’t think we are anywhere near our optimum level of interest here even with the sunshine.

Buys and sells have been matched pretty much each day so the placing shares are having a nice easy churn. The MM’s are doing a good job with liquidity. One can buy and sell decent amounts atm. It’s boring and for now boring is great!

30p following spud RNS, I don’t know but wouldn’t be surprised. A lot of folk follow highest risers and drill calendars. Let’s face it you only need one big one to come in and if you back 3 in a year that’s a good chance. So I think there is still money to arrive here.

I have been nosing around the DME website. It’s encouraging. I thought drilling for Helium would be difficult. It actually looks straightforward. More so than gas and defo more straightforward than oil especially given the different densities, API’s, water cuts etc.

By comparison Helium drilling is very straightforward. I found that extremely encouraging and I think when the market gets that there could well be a pile in! I bet those MM’s are being cagey and building a book to sell to market. I would, peeps like to buy a rising SP!

https://desertmountainenergy.com/

Usual caveats

Trek

£5

Yolo - you only live once. A term coined by WSB (Wall Street bets) to illustrate an ‘all in’ position...

Here are the greats!

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/XKPmtbCmkE4

Trek

For sure the additional stock is taking a toll here, one is assuming an amount of churn as the SP has stuck a tad over 4p.

All said a point will hopefully come when holders are comfortable with their % here.

Paying off the CLN’s with the significant drain that had on cash with quarterly interest rates of 15 & 5 % was a necessity. The £2.3m cash on accounts at year end and the increase in revenues from tech and use of furlough for services should be plenty to see the company through.

They closed out 2019 (dec31) with 2.1m cash with double digit rev growth. Cash burn was similar in 2020. They have more cash and no CLN’s only very small, negligible, service debt.

They have targeted one more significant deal this year. Whilst I don’t expect that announcement imminently there are plenty of opportunities for short term news. As always it’s news that will drive the churn and as they are so confident in maintaining that revenue trajectory we should be getting ops news soon.

That news will encourage churn and here’s hoping a higher SP. My target here is 6p which I see coming fairly quickly once news changes sentiment here.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s pretty obvious it (IB) is scalable. If it can be networked across LA hospitals, which I would assume there are many, it can be networked on a much larger basis. Healthcare likes standardisation for obvious reasons. It just needs the creme to rise. Hence my comment about what’s next. I hope they are all over this huge opportunity!

“Following the recent installation at the Keck Medical Center of USC, the purchase further extends IB's exclusive quantitative imaging capabilities throughout the entire USC and LA County Hospital network; the hub in the County-run healthcare system which serves over 10 million residents.”

Trek

You seldom get price info with these deals, what’s missing for me is ‘what’s next’. Other deals? I would expect so but no allusion, surely that should have been included.

Trek

Yep also some other trades posted as red here due to the spread and 15min delay look like buys as well.

Remember it’s the aggressors trade that is published I.e in this instance the buyer as opposed to the seller.

Anyways all said it’s just a hint of a change in sentiment. The SP seems to be picking up.

Good interview, sweet tweets, although I refuse to subscribe! The chart is lifting even if one is not a TA junky! Lo!

I have been, like some others, quietly ‘following the money’ and added a few.

Shhh, time to chill before the next RNS arrives.

Trek

Hi OaW,

Yes I have been here a while. Traded out and back in a couple times, more luck than judgement!

Re the SP, it’s probably a bit ‘rose tinted’ but sometimes an accumulation of events changes sentiment and sentiment can drive valuation.

Success with this deal and a seat alongside other majors could mean Save is viewed through a completely different lens.

All said 48p, agree I’d be very happy to start our journey there!

Trek

Without doubt the ESG element is key here. Exxon are vetting SAVE so they can show a responsible disposal.

It seems some majors want to offload African assets, I posted an earlier link about Shell. Majors are decarbonising for obvious reasons and it is likely that Exxon are also keen to rebalance to allow for the huge discoveries offshore Guyana.

In the results presentation AK certainly talked the ESG talk and was sincere explaining ‘lifting people out of poverty’ through ‘energy freedom’ and was clear how HC’s were here to stay. He defended Africa’s right to modernise and ‘catch up’ on more advanced economies with responsible application of HC’s given that others had already had the social-economic gains from HC’s.

Geographically this also makes so much sense and has a networking potential across the 4 Countries. SAVE could develop into a huge energy player in Africa.

This is a multi billion $ asset, we are in the right place at the right time and are attractive given the turnaround experience gained from Seven. As already posted yes AK has been clear any deal must be able to generate a dividend.

To achieve that it means revenues must be able to not only service debt but also cover pay and non pay opex as well as FX insurance and then have a remaining FCF to pay a dividend.

Ok obviously that all won’t be immediate else it will be a total giveaway but there will undoubtedly be a near term horizon of x years when that will come about in its entirety.

Given how advanced these discussions are, I suspect it has happened relatively quickly, I wonder if there were other bids. I just get the feeling AK is going to push a hard deal here and he may be pushing against an door that is very much ajar!

For those with reservations it is reassuring to know AK has kept and recently added to his holdings here, a point he stressed!

No wonder AK is on a talent recruitment initiative. He was also clear to point out his delegation skills on the recent call. I noted at the time that that seemed odd. I thought it was a reassurance given our concerns about this being a one man show, control and lack of apparent succession. However, given the size of this project his comments around leadership and delegation makes so much sense now and he basically let us know he had listened.

All very exciting and if SAVE can land this I expect others will come knocking and it will be a huge vote of market confidence.

Re SP, views range from us already being worth 55p broker target, to Malcy’s 10 bagger, 175p, to Zen’s 200p.

I reckon if we can bundle up some decent finance terms and the deal goes through we should open at least 80p (£800m mcap) probably closer to £1 given we would have well over $5bnin assets!

If AK can deliver the ESG story, receivables keep coming in post the acquisition then we will be a fabulous play for institutions on African growth and who knows what the SP will be then!

Usual caveats

Trek

Well fwiw, my thoughts on TA are that it’s data and when investing all data should be considered as part of a wider basket of research.

For sure TA is useful has its place, insti’s spend a fortune on it and when contemplating buying a stock we all take a peak at the chart some in more detail than others.

But there are other higher weighted factors like BoD, Finance (loads of measures including capital structure), Market (TAM), USP, regulation, shareholders, etc etc like ST has pointed out and there is another, peer analysis which you will find many of us earlier investors spent a long time discussing here. Peer analysis can also give an indication of what may come.

So use all the info to help you decide and especially read the prospectus and company presentations! I pop all this stuff on a spreadsheet and score each sector especially when comparing mining companies/explorers with each other.

Now can we talk about something else please? I will be refreshing myself with the tech of other Helium drills later. Probably more use at this juncture

Usual caveats

Trek

£5

Trek

£5

Yes, and a tweet and probably a livestream! More Carlsberg comms from DM!

And I reckon we will soon see our 5p in a day SP rise.

Just look at the trades today the MM has done a great job in keeping the SP down all day. Any big sells easily absorbed then at the close we get a 21.30p UT trade lol!

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/HE1/trades

This looks like it’s only going one way and may just be starting!

Trek

UT trade dropped in at 18p.

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/SAVE/trades

Be interesting to see tomorrow what can be bought without going NT (i’m fully invested) as the MM may at last be worried about how much stock they have! Now that would be good timing!

Trek

Malcy 10 bagger!...

“Savannah is really going from strength to strength and I see this continuing on an organic and inorganic basis. With market share in Nigeria of 10% but probably nearer 15% new clients are probably waiting to sign up and with such growth impending that positive stance on the dividend remains. Net debt is falling and with rising production could significantly increase the valuation that has been held back by the market.

Looking at the guidance for this year the company are on track to give them margins which at c.78% must be better than anything in the space and can only increase as they eat into the spare capacity. As to Niger the amalgamation of the PSC’s should be signed off before long and whilst there have been some, inevitable delays, the EPS is still expected this year. All in all the management is in the process of putting together a business that has the opportunity to be a huge, clean company in its space that few have seen the like of, I know I say it a lot and it has taken longer than I thought it surely should be a ten-bagger from here…”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/06/oil-price-savannah-sound-chariot-petrotal-longboat-igas/

Doesn’t say when though! Lol!

I have have chance to read through the balance sheet now and it is oh soooo impressive! The insti’s will be drooling over the increase in revs and that they can now justify buying with the ESG in place that clearly shows the carbon benefits of gas.

Also all controllable costs are better managed this time, granted covid probably helped.

The icing though is AK being clear that they will only buy an asset if it can generate a divi. That would allay a lot of concerns.

Even the true up terms with the FX differentiation across currencies are helping the cash position.

Once all this soaks in I think we will start a bull run back to 30’s. We just need to hold a +20p close then we will be off.

Usual caveats

Trek

‘TW follower by any chance Trek?’

Absolutely not! I had to google who he was a while back. I can read a balance sheet thank you and make my own mistakes! Lol!

Trek

Po22,

I only look at the ones in ‘safe’ juro’s.

You have to look at cash, post code, the BoD and whose drilling or about to drill cos that means you can see an inflexion point.

Those that tick all the boxes and have significant upside on gold potential probably WSBN pips it from ECR atm.

For copper and other pm’s Including gold THR and CHF both at a transformational stage. CHF offers more leverage, edges the management although THR have made a good management change recently.

For an outlier, probably LND, I only have a small position but if the next results come back as good they’ll likely sell up.

To sleep at night and look forward to a steady rise now and divi’s or t/o definitely PUR, that just pips SHG who are about to pay a divi.

I don’t want to crowd the board. There are others. It’s just my view having whittled these down but it’s enough to get your teeth into

Usual caveats

Trek

Don’t know if this pastes ok but you get the gist. My pf of gold/copper stocks are all up today bar three. They have all pulled up from lows which where profit driven..

Small cap gold stocks is the ‘easiest’ leveraged play on the POG. I think we are due a MASSIVE run!

CCZ
Castillo Copper Ltd
GBX 2.68
+GBX 0.18
7.20%
CHF
Chesterfield Resources PLC
GBX 11.80
-GBX 0.70
5.60%
COBR
Cobra Resources PLC
GBX 2.20
+GBX 0.050
2.33%
ECR
ECR Minerals PLC
GBX 2.05
+GBX 0.17
9.20%
EEE
Empire Metals Ltd
GBX 2.63
+GBX 0.025
0.96%
FRES
Fresnillo Plc
GBX 919.64
+GBX 22.04
2.46%
GPM
Golden Prospect Precious Metals Ltd.
GBX 62.05
+GBX 1.55
2.56%
GRL
Goldstone Resources Ltd
GBX 13.09
+GBX 0.34
2.65%
GGP
Greatland Gold plc
GBX 21.08
-GBX 0.92
4.19%
LND
Landore Resources Ltd.
GBX 32.98
+GBX 0.73
2.26%
PALM
Panther Metals Plc
GBX 14.48
+GBX 0.23
1.58%
POLY
Polymetal International PLC
GBX 1,705.50
+GBX 9.00
0.53%
PUR
Pure Gold Mining Inc
GBX 92.00
+GBX 1.00
1.10%
RRR
Red Rock Resources Plc
GBX 0.88
-GBX 0.075
7.89%
ROCK
Rockfire Resources PLC
GBX 0.90
+GBX 0.025
2.86%
SGZ
Scotgold Resources Limited
GBX 59.30
+GBX 2.80
4.96%
SHG
Shanta Gold Limited
GBX 16.99
+GBX 0.49
2.95%
THR
Thor Mining Plc
GBX 0.93
+GBX 0.038
4.25%
WSBN
Wishbone Gold PLC
GBX 17.50
-GBX 1.00
5.43%
XTR
Xtract Resources PLC
GBX 4.30
+GBX 0.095
2.26%

Trek

BCB,

I can’t find it either. I have emailed the company but they seldom reply.

Trek

The blanks are www. research- tree. com with no spaces.

Trek

2020 was a pivotal year for Savannah, which significantly exceeded guidance with the first full year of operations at its Nigerian gas business despite COVID. Total Revenues and cash collections increased for the fifth consecutive year, helping reduce net debt sharply. 2021 guidance has been reiterated pointing to a continuation of strong revenue generation and rapid debt reduction. Encouragingly, 2021 has started strongly with production to April up 9%, hitting new highs. Management is seeking to refinance its main Accugas debt facility this year, while first gas from new gas sales contracts should also kick-in, further underpinning the long-term cash flow potential this strategic business offers. Savannah is also laying out a comprehensive sustainability strategy, an area of growing importance for institutional investors and ambitious companies alike.

?Strong 2020 progress confirmed. Savannah’s preliminary FY20 results, the headline figures for which were first announced in February’s trading update, confirm the significant financial progress delivered in its first full year of ownership of its Nigerian assets, with all original guidance exceeded. Gross production increased 14% to 19.5 kboepd, Total Revenues were 23% higher at US$236m, adjusted EBITDA increased 19% to US$184m (78% margin), cash collections rose for the fifth consecutive year, by 11% to US$187m, and net debt fell 16% to US$409m.

?New gas sales contracts offer upside. Progress on gas sales has been highly encouraging too. Last January, Accugas signed its first new gas sales agreement (GSA) in five years with the FIPL Afam power station. First gas sales, which are not currently in our forecasts, are expected this year. In December, Accugas revised its existing GSA with Lafarge Africa, extending the contract tenor and raising the life-of- contract price. A second new GSA was also signed in February 2021 with Mulak Energy targeting first sales in 2022.

?2021 targets reiterated. No change to 2021 guidance for Total Revenues of greater than US$205m, although this only relates to Savannah’s three active GSAs and does not include the expected new gas sales to FIPL or any additional new contracts. Opex & Admin, DD&A and capex (up to US$65m) guidance also remain unchanged.

?Sustainability focused. Savannah has conducted a thorough review of its sustainability strategy and has laid out four key strategic pillars which are aligned with 13 key UN SDGs and six additional sustainability reporting standards. It is rolling out a new sustainability performance and reporting framework, which it will report on from 2022.

https://*********************/Dashboard/DownloadResearchNote/8_28468

Trek