RE: POG... Rising...15 Oct 2021 09:10
I get that even though this warrants stuff it doesn’t usually get a response. Probably because it’s finance and that is not as sexy as drilling! Well even Mrs Trek agrees!!
Anyways IMO we are approaching a SP inflection point based on our capital structure. Yawn!
Just look back at how many warrants were outstanding and how much cash we have raised and what we have achieved with it!
I get that this is a sht narrative for those that bought at 4p! But this SP can and imo will rerate rapidly soon enough.
We are very well capitalised, money is imo being well spent and we have had decent grades which are an indication of more to come from the assays. The evidence points towards commercial!
All the remaining ‘in the money warrants’ expire by 30/7/22 including the 1.725 ones. Imo it’s the 1.725 warrants that have been holding the SP down. That is the marker I have used to get my average down in the absence of news. Buy close to 1.6 sell close to 1.7. There were 27.6m left in back in Feb. I expect many have now been flipped.
Of the 1p wars there were only 32m left. Given the time that these have been available holders are probably now waiting for the conversion notice before deciding.
Thats now likely less than 43m in the money wars outstanding.
To put that into perspective we got through the 55m Shenyang warrants in 3 weeks! Granted that was on a rising SP.
After the 22/7/22 which isn’t far off. Especially when posters boast about a 3 year hold strategy when the SP rises and then 5 mins when it falls! Lol!
Well after that date we would have even burnt the Shen 5p wars, although I would rather have the cash. All we are then left with are the 3.75p wars. These run to 9/4/23 and will provide some useful cash. CB missed a trick with no accelerator imo though.
Now the next view is to look at the cash burn in parallel with the conversions to see how long we will run before the next placing. With £3.8m cash that is some way off yet but I will run the numbers at our next results.
You can also add in the remaining unissued warrants to the number of shares in issue, work out the % dilution and take that % off the SP. That will give you a fully diluted SP but now I know I am getting really boring!
Show me another junior miner as well capitalised with their own wherewithal (other than PXC) to move towards COMMERCIALISATION and I will be interested.
FOMO Friday anyone!
Usual caveats,
Trek
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