Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Tro,

Yep, re coal...

I’m clocking BEN. I have mentioned them here before.

North American met coal, own railway, raised 6m from mem. I dug into them a few months ago and would buy on a bounce and hold. They are a real Co. Assets, BoD, finance. I also remember reading some incredible responses from them during NA storms. Was more good behaviours than PR; tick! It will all come together there v soon imo and 100p Is defo on cards so take 50% at 50p and let the rest ride!

No I don’t own. But I would buy if not for moving to income and reducing risk with a more ‘focused’pf!

BEN is defo one of those stocks I’d rec now esp after all the pain holders have tolerated! Buyers now are robbers!!!

Tro, I guess like you I look for the TA breakout to dust off the research!

15% pop today at BEN off the bottom of a flag on low vol imo is a buy sign! 23.5p today. 50p target in a year, massive understatement! Let’s see!

Hi Evi,

“ Liability-Driven Investment played a big part of 2022 !”

Lack of truss and kamakwazi! For sure! It was like a mini covid opportunity. Thank you! But as for politics. They are all a bunch of lying narcissistic wnkers!

I have my own political views.

I believe politicians are in an honoured position to serve the people and that that position should be exclusive and well rewarded to the exclusion of all other roles. ….And that’s just a starter! I’d turn the system its head for transparency and fairness! Especially taxation!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Eviking,

This year has been flat excluding dividends which I don’t count. I just spend them!

Got off to a sht start with SNG. I had intended to sell 75% but the Friday before that RNS following a storm we had no power, no cell and no internet all day and I had (wanted) to help in the village! So consequently had a year of catch up thereafter!

Then I was able to trade the Ukraine invasion reasonable well by selling, buying back cheaper and repeating gaining more shares for the bounce!

Then biggy was LDI. I made some amazing calls there after working out balance sheet exposures for different insurers. I recouped a heck of a lot! On the ftse of all places! That’s how it goes!

But as for ten bagging hot stocks? Zero this year having had several the years before!

Still. Rule one protect your capital. Rule 2. See rule 1! Lol!

Investing has been transformational for my family and I and I don’t take it for granted!

Preserving capital, getting some income and of course backing few well researched hot stocks will be the order for 23.

The plan is to tip trading profits into divi payers to generate income and to hope that my gift away stock does well.

So not as exciting as some of my previous exploits!

But the plan that I follow which changes daily is getting there! Lol!

Good luck with your investments!

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Trek

A 20% return on shares bought just a couple of weeks ago! Barmy!

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Trek

Thanks guys helpful feedback. I didn’t see liberum note, only Angel on website.

My main objective was to see how likely the 100p was that I saw muted here.

I can see now that the August ROC number would likely be a top out payment. I can recalibrate from there.

I still wouldn’t be anywhere near 100p but even 20-30p would be a good shout. 30p giving 6% which should grown very quickly as new business comes through.

With a scalable platform the costs shouldn’t shift so much.

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Trek

US market commentary….

‘ “The market appears to be exhausted, understandably, no longer expecting a large technical rally and just hoping to get to Friday afternoon without any further meaningful losses,” Navellier added. “Most of the year’s major uncertainties; China Covid, the war in Ukraine, tight energy supplies, and hawkish central banks, will be waiting for us on the other side.”

As the final week of trading winds down, the stock market is on track for its worst year since 2008. The Nasdaq has performed the worst of the three indexes, losing 33.8% this year as investors rotated out of growth stocks amid rising recession fears. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track to lose 8.5% and 19.7%, respectively.….’

Wow my pf was pretty good by comparison!

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Trek

Not bothered. Picked up three more lots in the 50’s now.

Story is well in tact, actually more so now than the previous 10 months!

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Trek

Looking at todays sp action, also likely driven by weather events and appointment but it is what it is and if we close above 120 in 22 I think that’s one big chart lol!

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Trek

Well that’s me back in the blue here on the bid at long last! Flipping heck it’s been hard work 22!

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Trek

Thanks pinocchio,

Nice to call the pullback and be in profit within an hour! Lol!

They don’t all go like that!

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Trek

Meant to say if a divi pay out wasn’t included in the articles of association and there was a vote then it’s obviously pointless.

That’s one of the downsides here. The BoD holdings are too high so it potentially disempowers other shareholders.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the CEO sell some stock as that is likely holding the SP back contrary to other views. However, it would likely be a premium institutional off book block sale.

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Trek

Yu…. I posted about these earlier.

Had some time to read the AR, the RNS’s and a data sheet the weekend. Have posted some of my calcs over there.

Managed to get in below 500p. See it as a good meduim term hold and future divi payer.

Will add more later. Don’t let the recent rise put you off. As you know it doesn’t work like that!

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Trek

So I picked up a few on the expected retrace below 500. Will get more later as I like to average in and out of a position then hopefully leave some in if it’s going as planned.

Pretty confident that the January numbers will more likely take us over 6 than under 5. That’s good enough odds to start with until the next set of numbers.

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Trek

So a potential special divi pot of….

16.4m (Angel) - 3.6m (ROC) - 4m (eoy draw) = 8.8m

As they started the year with 7m then that could be a similar cushion to start next year 8.8m - 7m =1.1m special divi or 6.47% based on 17m shares.

As for a regular divi. I would use the fully diluted EPS of 26p and take 50% of that (2x cover) so 13p/share = 2.2m or 13%. So 1.1m h1 and 1.1m h2.

So 12.5p per share in H1 and 6.5p per share in H2 with room for further special divi’s/growth and I’d say that was a pretty pessimistic view!

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Trek

Obviously growth is down to how many customers they can add. Retentions are amazing at near 100%. Bad debts flat and within guided bandwidth. Cost should come down on a unit basis with the smart platform.

The opportunity from a £50bn TAM is huge!

Given their customer QoS, water offering (albeit v small part) plus the customer hedging platform as a USP no reason why the growth shouldn’t continue as it empowers customers to manage their energy market costs.

Last time I saw a disconnect between the Sp and growth with numbers like this was at TGA. I rode it from around 160 and sold too early! Here is not too dissimilar.

The Jan update will be key as they must keep grabbing the new business as margins are tight and cost savings opportunities will reduce with the IT.

Angel forecasting 635p based on the 260m FY revs so there is still plenty of upside.

https://www.yugroupplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/YUG__28112022.pdf

Revenues at the interims for the first 6 months were 129m so if they achieve that as guided then whilst it’s an outstanding performance based on the previous year it’s essentially a repeat of H1. Hence giving the bullishness of the November TU I would expect 260m FY to be beaten. Also second half tends to be better than first.

Something nearer 280m could mean a SP closer to 630p is more likely than one below 500p.

So one can buy with reasonable surety of value.

As for a divi. We can expect an announcement of intent at the finals. I have read the AR but haven’t read the AoA’s to know if a vote would be needed.

In terms of cash though Angel expect 16.4m net of investments.

From the interims….

“The Group has a strong balance sheet, with £15.7m cash available on 30 June 2022, up from £11.5m at June 2021. The Group continues to have no debt.

On 31 August 2022 the Group settled its full annual ROC bill on time, and closed August with £5.1m of cash, being ahead of management expectations. Group cash by 31 December 2022 is targeted to significantly exceed the £7.0m cash held on 31 December 2021.

If a special divi came out of cash.

Need to calc the ROC cost…

They started with 7m in the current account.
At June they had 15.7m cash so

15.7-7 (starting balance) = 8.7m new cash to June

8.7m - 5.1 aug cash balance = 3.6m ROC cost pa.

Also 4m from working capital and smart meter investments to deduct….

“A c£1.3m working capital requirement (financed from Group cash reserves) and investment of c£2.7m into meter assets from Q4 2022 and into FY 2023 could generate (post tax, pre indexation) levered returns of over 30% and a recurring, profitable annuity income.’

Cntd..

This could be a tipping point. No pay and no axs to cash. We know that banks don’t have enough cash on account to pay their depositors in stable conditions let alone with contagion!

https://twitter.com/hashtag/RunOnRussianBanks?src=hashtag_click

Looks like Ukraine are pushing back in Bakmut…footage 2 & 6 mins in, propaganda vid.

https://youtu.be/nqkartX1Fvo

Also lots of YouTube vids on orcs surrendering, some with snow on ground.

Once news that atm’s have no money reach the frontline I wouldn’t be surprised if there is all out mutiny!

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Trek

What a great appt to the BoD. Katy will bring experience, diversity, transparency and confidence. A very capable and pioneering lady!

You can look at her linked in and YouTube vid.

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Trek

Great vid from vice in Bakmut. Horrendous conditions!

https://youtu.be/1lpe1OgCbCY

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Trek

It’s the China effect MT, all commos & PM’s up today and ironically US ten years albeit market expecting fed to recalibrate now.

Bodes well for a Cu boom and if Pukin can wind down we could see a huge Cu super cycle kicked off from all the copper needed to rebuild Ukraine! Wishful thinking…perhaps but sounds are emerging!

Every one imo should have some cu exposure in their pf’s.

PXC gives one polymetallic exposure from the safety of the US with a huge finance SP inflexion IF it lands!

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Trek

I wouldn’t bank on getting an RNS to say money has been drawn nor would I necessarily expect 2p next week.

There is no change in the shares in issue. News has already been released to the market. The loans are also bau for our new partners.

For sure we will get an update soon including on the finance but to expect an RNS because funds have been drawn is not mandated.

It will be shown in half year/full year accounts as funds drawn from established credit facilities but to expect one on Tuesday 2nd of January would be open to interpretation.

Furthermore, to buy or sell based on the arrival or not of that RNS would be ‘amusing’. We’ve had the key news. The agreement has been reached. Why wouldn’t GCAT now honour their side after months of DD. I would expect an RNS if the monies DIDN’T arrive else we assume all is has been told.

All said I wouldn’t be surprised if a comment is included with the next drill results given how fickle most AIM/micro-cap investors understandably are!

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Trek

This narrative from the cnbc app is the almost same narrative for Au being down one week as being up the next! So you have to dig deep!

“ Gold is performing in line with risk assets, said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity. “Further signs that king dollar is loosening its grip on the safe-haven throne are also encouraging bullion bulls to restore spot prices back above the psychological $1,800 mark,” he said.

The dollar index pared losses and was steady as risk sentiment improved on news of China relaxing quarantine rules, while benchmark 10-year yields rose to their highest in nearly a month.

Higher interest rates and bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal.

Top gold consumer China said on Monday that inbound travellers would no longer have to go into quarantine from Jan. 8, in a major step towards easing curbs on its borders, which have been largely shut since 2020.

Gold has gained nearly $200 after falling to a more than two-year low in late September, as expectations about slower interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve dimmed the dollar’s allure.

“Gold was weaker for most of 2022 amid aggressive tightening of monetary policies, rising real yields and dollar strength. But the tide has turned as Fed shifts into policy calibration mode,” said OCBC FX strategist Christopher Wong.

“Sustained recovery in gold prices is possible if Fed pivots.”

Higher rates diminish gold’s anti-inflationary appeal and increase the opportunity cost of holding the asset as it pays no interest.”

Higher 10 year treasuries = lower Au
Fed pivoting/re calibrating = slowing rates rises = lower rates = higher Au. But they haven’t said that yet!
China opening = possibly a relief rally for gold but renminbi is now bouncing! So weaker USD = higher Au also = higher commos.

It looks like Au could be linking to China’s ‘recovery’. If so could that be going against being a safe haven? No it seems strengthening renminbi as playing a weaker dollar until it will reach a point when the fed rises to shore up the USD as weaker dollar imports inflation and so treasuries will go up and Au back down. Unless of course Chinese (and india) demand takes more physical off the table so then we get a strengthening demand supply algo.

But for now the yellow metal could just be going on a run following the delicate fortunes of the chines recovery. Mmm

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Trek