Results out the way RBL done. All cashed up pretty much ‘forever’!
The old saying is go short on finance and long on ops.
Well they got a load of ops news between now and end of year. Two drills spinning atm and the market has priced it as expo wells when in reality they are prod wells targeting proven fairway.
Sp is pretty much on its knees atm. the ceo gave a good interview yesterday for a change!
100k shares say I’m right with this one. But I am not expecting it to double for a while just that it’s upside v downside risks are very attractive.
Ps been doing more research on ROAD and added a few there. Small numbers though. But looks v promising. Wouldn’t tip it outright. I paid 10p average but will add if it goes lower. Sub 10p with a chance of 20p on the chart if you can afford a risk imo. Don’t read the BB though it’s mostly fos!
Usual caveats
Trek
PHNX, CAML, DEC, PAF, what a day!
PHNX will get bought out before the GE imo. Outstanding numbers, sht sp! Digital lift and shift is easy peasy! Lots of synergy savings potential and money sloshing around in sector.
ECOR Sp to move up next then SEPL divestment news would be icing on cake!
Most importantly me divi income looks ‘safe’ across the whole pf now.
When rates come down which the will london will go on a proper run imo.
Just shows you don’t need minnows to win in this game!
Now is the time to load up on housebuilders! Imo!
Usual caveats
Trek
My last significant income position that was unloved and traded on similar metrics to PHNX was GLO. I always said it would be taken over and it was. Went cheap though for just 30% premium.
While eyes are looking at MNG as a candidate imo it’s PHNX.
These businesses now are so easy to rebrand and bolt on as it’s all digital and the cost savings can be huge!
London is a sitting duck price wise. Phnx is so cheap on a peer basis and the bod have failed to unlock value in terms of sp. That’s the fact.
Plus anyone would be cognisant of buying before any general election.
A bid from a big European or US insurance house is around the corner imo at well north of 600p as that would still have them plenty of upside.
Usual caveats
Trek
It was just 70m….
“ £3.9bn2 Solvency II ('SII') Surplus remains resilient (FY22: £4.4bn) and is inclusive of a prudent £70m Consumer Duty provision, following a comprehensive review of our back book products ahead of the July 2024 compliance deadline.’
So all in the SP.
Leaky leaky Phnx though, or did they do it deliberately… mmmmm
Usual caveats
Trek
I read that Zarro, ‘discretion’ is hardly progressive dividend policy. The 2.5% increase is also disappointing. I was kind of hoping for a special.
I haven’t read the full report yet to see what they put aside for the 70m charging cap which now is peanuts in the scheme of growth and the debt payment trajectory.
I think it’s the cash flow glidepath transparency and debt pay down that the market will like. Let’s face it it’s been just headlining data beforehand but now the detail is visible.
All that aside I think it’s a great set of numbers. This is my top holding now by a long long way and I will just ride out the peaks and troughs as there is now a long term definitive growing income story here that has delivered ahead of time and focusing on growth and returns.
One can’t have it both ways, complain that it’s cheap and get a bargain!
Best to all.
Usual caveats
Trek
Getting fed up with this BB now. Been poisoned by a few!
885 average, after following my own intuition as shared on here. Now with a few more shares as well. This is looking like a solid long term income play albeit 11% divi now but capital growth to follow.
Feel for long term holders but at least now with all this cash headroom and improving US macro there could be a path back for the SP.
Good luck to genuine investors that hold or look to hold stock here
Usual caveats
Trek
I think he refers to increase in impairments. Which we knew anyway.
This has been short on finance and long on ops. The finance is now sorted and we at last have an ops story.
Whilst production will be end of q3 there’s a heck of a lot of ops news due with testing two wells and imo the market has priced them as exploration and not production wells which are much lower risk.
Could see a steady climb from here now and a big jump ahead of Christmas.
Usual caveats
Trek
Here’s a good infographic.
Bank sizes by assets. I guessed wrong. I thought USA!
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-top-50-largest-banks-by-consolidated-assets/
Imagine if Chinese banks have to mark assets to market! Yikes!
I see in the UK the bank of Putin that refuses to condemn the war, the same bank that supports China in Hong Kong and turns the biggest blind eye to human rights abuse is…..yep number 1. Guess that explains it. Go get em Farage!
Usual caveats
Trek
Https://www.ft.com/content/aa383026-ac12-4d39-b6ee-075c2a248fc9
So do ya think Trump will ask his mate Pukin for a loan or perhaps rocket man? What wouldn’t ya put past the narcissist!
God, Trump and Guns!
Make America Great Again!
The diatribe is pulpable. A population like that and a choice of those 2!
Just as bad here!
My auntie lived in the US for 22 years. A few weeks ago she moved to Spain.
She lived in a nice place near Augusta GC but left because of the gun culture.
Apparently it’s completely out of hand now. Nice homes are regularly targeted and neighbours being shot only makes the local news! So they up and left, very fortunate!
Trek
Only sold a small % of pf and ‘want to’ offload rest.
The math looks ridiculous if correct. See the late RNS today.
Anyways I have taken a small trading position there. If it doubles again which actually looks likely one can quickly sell half and see how it goes. I think 20p is a real possibility.
Usual caveats
Trek
What favours buyers now is the 10;13 am RNS. Missed the 0700 read so many folk won’t see this unless they catch the risers board or tomorrow’s news.
Usual caveats
Trek
Having read the RNS and the previous RNS’s I just bought in. Just a punt mind you.
Multiples seem outstanding and by buying a smaller position one can just watch and sleep easy!
Trek
Hi mick,
I have many much better than YU but not recently as I have been focusing on income. I built a pot using high risk plays had several 10 baggers then flipped it into income so we are self sufficient if there is such a thing!
Funny thing is where I made money they are all now down substantially!
Now bar the odd dabble I stick with boring income and trawl the accounts to make sure next months divi pension will land!
Not everyone’s cup of tea but it’s all in an ISA so at least when we go the kids get it and not the state or some life insurance outfit that are legally allowed to steel all you invested on behalf of an employer!
I never understood that one!
Trek
From one mad house to another.
BoE to be acccountable for literal heating not as in Keynes overheating! lol!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/19/labour-to-make-fighting-global-heating-a-priority-for-bank-of-england?utm_term=65fa91ba28e12770316c00970fce5b79&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email
Trek
I gave up smoking and the odd puff of weed after 16 years way back. Just stopped.
Gave up alcohol for 365 days. Just so I could. Went a whole year!
Now I enjoy occasional drink. Don’t smoke though.
Could have stopped drinking all together but manage just once a week now or more if a special occasion but zero in between.
Trek
O gosh nom, you found Pi.
It has its uses like occupying Mrs Trek while I go down the pub and talk to some real robots! lol!
Trek
It’s a good summary and the headline numbers were outstanding. Like I have said in the past its the volume of sales that are key with hedged production and they delivered 821 another record and in a warmer El Niño year!
The divi cut takes away that milestone Rusty referred to on the investor call.
Now, yet to be seen, or for that matter believed, let’s see some structured buy backs!
It doesn’t have to be every day. It can be by price or Mondays only for all I care!. But it needs some methodology and frequency to give confidence to the market.
I will defo be adding more as I can now. The surety of the quarterly yield with that +50% ebit margin is compelling.
I see the balance sheet growing asset wise as debt gets paid down and bargains come up.
Many of the longer life wells will soon just printing cash debt free.
I also think that the yield will increase ahead of 3 years, probably in 2 years as those ABS notes get paid off meaning buyers now could be in for another bumper divi in two years time when hopefully the sp is higher for a similar yield as now assuming a higher divi.
And I never in my wildest thought 885 today would end up blue. Hope it sticks around this level so I can re-invest the divi. But I think other than adage and Connor who’s shorts are well in it won’t take much to spook one short seller meaning others may follow.
Fed rate decision soon. Just some dovishness and a reduction in SOFR will all help! Still at least it shouldn’t go up higher!
Usual caveats
Trek
“ The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.90% between 2024 and 2032.”
https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/cobalt-market
Trek
I’m hanging in there mick. Sold some and bought some now at 885. Was amazed to see it now at 890 as was 850 when I popped out!
Stateside may like line of sight to growth and a 10% yield. Personally I quite liked the 30% yield but I guess it was never gonna last!
May get some shorts closing soon. Who knows!
Usual caveats
Trek