The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
M - hope your Son has a speedy recovery - sure with plenty of TLC from you and he'll be fine.
O - yep - anything that can help the share price rise will make me smile.
Can't believe they are saying supply chain problems will go on into 2023 now - if it puts that much on a sofa, you can see why the online retailers are struggling especially as they have said they won't pass increased costs onto their customers - their profit margins are so finite - lets hope they are exaggerating things a bit and it may only be mid 2022 before all this is sorted.
Hope everyone's had a good day.
O - you were right - FTSE futures 1.86% down at the minute - so much for my hopes yesterday that common sense would prevail - I've just been watching Kay Burley interview Dominic Raab just now - hospitalisations now increased to 114 but what she did say was apparently South Africa have said that the UK have reacted in an alarmist and unnecessary way - can't remember the other word that was used but I do agree with them.
More data from South Africa - from the 12 November when the first case was identified, to the 16 December, case number increases peaked at 26% per day - we were at 24% yesterday so I'm really hoping that by Xmas our numbers start coming down.
Stay safe everyone - I'm off doing Xmas things today.
I've just had a look at the comments I mentioned about earlier - they came from Professor Graham Medley who is the Chair of the Sage modelling committee - what he has said is that they exclusively model bad outcomes that require restrictions and omit just as likely outcomes that would not require restrictions - unbelievable.
Ran out of space - haven't done that in a long time with my waffling!
Anyway, futures markets not too bad at the moment - FTSE 0.20% down - not sure if that will accelerate overnight, but it being Xmas week it could be quite boring anyway - by the time the traders come back to their desks in the New Year a lot more should be known about Omicron and I'm really hoping that it does prove to be the end of the pandemic.
Hope everyone's having a good weekend and staying safe :-)
Good morning all.
S - Can't believe you haven't had a drink for 3 weeks - have you been ill?
C - Looks like you chose the right time to sell out of the market - I would say its been dire since March/April time and in some respects I wish I had taken a back seat - hindsight is a wonderful thing though. Glad that you're forward thinking and sorting an ISA out for the next tax year - the lower the dealing costs for you, the higher the profits will be so even a small amount on a daily basis will have a snowball effect.
O - I kind of agree with some of what you're saying, but I'm hoping Omicron is priced in now and any bit of good news that comes out - if it does indeed prove to be the strain of the virus that ends the pandemic, then I think the market will really start to pick up - commentators on Bloomberg are already saying the UK market is underpriced and the US overvalued, but as you say, its really the likes of the FAANGS that are holding their markets up - apparently 80% of the S&P share prices are between 50-80% down this year.
In respect of Omicron/lockdowns - there's an interesting article published by the Spectator this morning which includes a twitter exchange between one of their reporters and someone on the SAGE committee discussing the projections - as we have come to learn during the last two years, the frightening figures that are forecast haven't come to fruition thankfully, but what the SAGE guy says about the latest projections/forecasts are purely based on "worst case scenarios" and I think it was put to him about looking at less pessimistic scenarios and its surprising what he says - I can't remember it exactly but you should read it because its a bit of an eye opener and explains why no further measures are being implemented at the moment - the Government are obviously waiting to see how it all evolves.
As I mentioned last week, there's a University researcher or something called Pieterstreicher that has accurately tracked the breakout in South Africa and called it ahead of time when he saw the peak over there ending. I appreciate we have different demographics here, but what we lose on the swings - more aged population for one thing, against the roundabouts - in comparison a higher level of vaccinated individuals, I am hoping his projections are far more accurate than our SAGE "experts" - he envisages no more than 350 deaths per day from Omicron but I don't think he has indicated when he sees our surge end - I suppose we will be able to tell for ourselves with declining numbers. Also, there was a HOC hearing earlier on in the week when one of the health professionals stated that once there are 250 hospitalised with the variant, they will be able to ascertain more accurately how the virus affects our population in severity - we have 85 in hospital at the moment so hopefully it won't be too long before they can say definitively.
Good morning all - Friday already and only two weeks of the year left - in trading terms I can honestly say I'll be glad to see the back of this year.
S - well done and your trades - little and often seems to be the only way at the minute - welcome back.
On a positive note (hopefully) South Africa reckon they've hit the peak of their cases/hospitalisations - if we mirror them, then I've calculated we will be in the same position by the end of the month/year and if that is the case, and it is indeed the end of the pandemic then next year will be good for everyone.
Hope everyone has a good day today.
O - Personally I think its about 3 months away before the supply chains really start to get sorted - that's what I have in mind in respect of getting back into ASC - I may be wrong about that but I can see them and BOO going lower still purely because of the fine margins that they work to - I did say last year I wasn't sure whether either of them had made the right decisions to buy up market share so I wonder if the chickens are coming home to roost so to speak.
N - the FCA have a website which updates shorts on companies on a daily basis - the only thing is that as the level that has to be declared in respect of shorting is so low now I'm sure the shorters find their way around the system somehow - have no idea where someone would get the other data from.
V - Hope you enjoyed Spiderman - the reviews I have read have said its quite good.
O - I was spitting feathers over the weekend on how the spread of the new virus has been handled by the Government/media - its totally destroyed confidence and I know I'm being a bit cynical here, but I really do believe its all to do with getting Boris' parties off the front page - look at yesterday, there was a new photo published from another party so Boris decides he's going to do another press conference and frighten the living daylights out of people - its almost as if he's playing a game that you carry on finding photos, I'll carry on deflecting with things about covid.
I did read, and I'm not sure if the authenticity has been checked out by LBC, but apparently the step son of the person that died on Monday was a guy that was a bit of a recluse that hadn't had his jabs - its on the Mail online.
For those of you in CINE I'm really pleased to see it rebound today - shorts closing maybe - spikes and shakes is all I'm going to say there after a 15% odd rise - don't know if its spiked because I haven't looked that closely at it.
Market does seem a bit brighter today - I think its because there's no lockdown, and more data is starting to come out to balance the scare mongering and apparently Reuters are reporting about the moronic variant not being as severe because the disease doesn't enter the lungs - I think I mentioned that on here yesterday.
O - you sound fed up with Boo today - don't blame you but what I would say is I have a feeling (and its only a feeling) that if the reports are right about the moronic variant being the thing that kills off covid, then next year might be a bit of a boom on the markets like last year - I know inflation/interest rate rises etc will have a part to play, but when a share is on an upward trend its far easier/more profitable to trade then when its downwards - and everything has been down this year (or nearly everything!).
Good morning all - bit dull and dark here so far.
Well, what a start to the morning for ASC and BOO - glad I sold the majority of my ASC holding at £24 - at least there's the opportunity in the future to trade them at a lower price.
Did anyone watch the press conference last night? Hopefully only a few more days and there will be more data out that they can truly say what the impact of the moronic variant is likely to be - if it turns out to be mild like it is in South Africa, and that it really is the beginning of the end of the virus then that's good news. I just despair at the scaremongering tactics used over the last week or so - businesses/livelihoods are being ruined because of the tone of the news and I don't even dare go near the effect its had on peoples mental health. Unfortunately the "scare" tactics are rubbing off on other countries now - well apart from the US who seem pretty well relaxed about it.
I hope people are keeping safe/well.
N - I was reading Mark Minniverni's tweets the other day - he said something like in the 38 years he's been trading he's never known such a split (or posh word to that effect that I had to google) market. Bloomberg were saying earlier that there's only 5 companies in the S&P that have gone up this year - no guessing what those are - and that the majority of the companies share prices are down quite significantly - again going back to Mark Minniverni he listed quite a few companies that have been hammered by somewhere between 50%-80% - and not just meme stocks.
Good afternoon all.
Hope everyone is having a reasonable day - I think I may give up for this year - just downward pressure on everything at the moment and I can't see it getting any better until covid is under control - retail seems to be down because of supply chain issues/inflation concerns, travel/leisure is down because of lack of confidence, oil down because demand is down - it's just so doom and gloom at the minute.
On a brighter note - I've been keeping an eye out on what's happening in South Africa and they seem confident to have passed their peak - if that is the case, we should peak here next week but fingers crossed if hospital cases stay quite low people will start becoming a bit less stressed about it all. I've also read something about a study that has shown that because omicron doesn't enter the lungs for some reason, its less severe - if that is the case, there's a lot of comment being made that this could be the variant that sees the end of covid for once and for all - I really do hope that this turns out to be true.
TD - the value of my portfolio is down quite significantly since March - I only have three holdings - MCRO, CCL and ASC - the latter I have only just started accumulating but have put a halt to that because I think the share price could carry on going down for a while yet. To have come out on top in your first year in which has been a very difficult one is good going.
Anyone watching the Science and Technology Committee hearing on Sky at the moment? They've just interviewed Dr Kate Bingham the previous Chair of the vaccine taskforce and they're now interviewing that Dr Coetzee who identified Omicron - all interesting stuff me thinks!
Good morning all - still dark here.
O - South Africa have been shouting from the roof tops since Sunday that we are over reacting in this country and that it is only a mild illness - the lady that revealed the strain to the world was giving various interviews Sunday/Monday on things like LBC and GB News stating that we are over reacting and there's an article in the Mail Online that she's written as well. In addition, I mentioned on the weekend about a guy that I found on twitter - pieterstreicher who has now been quoted in the Daily Telegraph saying that he thinks the Omicron variant will now see the end of the pandemic.
Admittedly our demographic is quite different to South Africa's, and they are in the Summer season now, however our country has more people vaccinated, but what I find so infuriating (and I'm not a business owner) is how the Government are hyping things so much and putting the fear of god in people just to get their parties off the front page of the papers and the "spin" on someone having died "with" Omicron and refusing to answer relevant questions. All of this has just had such a devastating impact on business - you read about bars/restaurants that have had massive cancellations because of the fear that's been put into people when they've been having such a difficult time over the last few years.
Someone is being interviewed on Sky News at the moment (a Scientist I think) saying that Omicron could be the end of the pandemic.
As you may be able to tell, I'm spitting feathers on how this has been handled by the Government - they just have no idea the impact their (in my opinion) actions have had on people/businesses all to distract from their misdeeds.