RE: ODX17 Nov 2020 21:40
Article from Sharebuyers.......8th Oct.
When house broker finnCap issued an updated broker note that Omega Diagnostics will receive paltry revenues of £5.7m until the end of the financial year from the UK RTC, it understandably sent alarm bells ringing.
Why would a house broker issue such a downbeat update on its own client many asked – excluding other revenue streams and proposed ramp ups in capacity.
We were also questioning as to why a leading AIM broker appears to be struggling to make a forecast with any degree of accuracy on its own client – Omega Diagnostics is not a complex business in terms of its structure or potential immediate opportunities.
Therefore, we decided to do a little quick number crunching of our own which should give finnCap a helping hand in understanding the general areas to hone in on when it comes to making a new forecast and giving investors the information they need. Our model below assumes the following:
There are 19 weeks remaining until Omega consolidates its financials
finnCap’s COVID-19 excluding revenue estimate of £12.6m is accurate. We assume it will make £1.6m net profit on this from historical margins.
A constant production of 200,000 tests for the UK RTC for the next 19 weeks – receiving £1.50 per test with a net profit of 40%.
From week 10, Omega’s overall capacity increases to 500,000
From week 10, it produces 300,000 tests per week for Mologic or Avacta – receiving £4 per test with a net profit of 40%.
From week 14, Omega’s overall capacity increases to 1,000,000 tests per week
From week 14, Omega produces 800,000 tests per week for Mologic or Avacta – receiving £4 per test with a net profit of 40%.
General assumptions; the UK RTC held back how much it could charge, it will be charging Mologic / Avacta more for production. Demand will be there from Mologic or Avacta to fill capacity on a week-by-week basis.
So where does all of the above leave the revenue and profit from ODX by the end of the financial year potentially?
Revenue = £43.1m and Profit = £13.8m