Member Info for Tracylied

Late reported 350k is a buy but showing as a sell. All efforts to encourage selling. Today has been a very good day for mid term holders with real opportunity to add at a great price. Many have been mugged for their shares over the last few days. Very little has really changed except the cash generated in the last quarter was less than hoped. The company are making real efforts to deal with technical failures but unfortunately they are a feature of mining and of Africa.

16 million traded today and whilst some trades are difficult to tell I suspect the balance is on the buy side by 60/40 or so. I suspect the SP will stabilise at this level or above.

Just under $19000 a ton right now. 17% of the 29% of the increase in all in costs was due to technical issues at the mine; clearly they need to get operations normalised at Trojan and achieve that steady state at 2200 tons minimum per quarter. The other 11-12% was due to the offtake agreement that will be largely mitigated with the smelter restarting. Jam tomorrow yes indeed but tomorrow is now quite well pinned down with the restart of the smelter commenced. FR. The tons mined was really high and they now have 100k tons at surface stockpiled so reducing much of the technical risk this quarter. The pilot tailing plant is also now under test cycles with the transformer and agitator problems resolved. The devil is very much in the detail. At FR they had a power issue that lasted a month due to faulty cable at two absorption tanks. What can anyone say... that is the reality of Africa

I think they bailed the last couple of days when their gamble went down the toilet. Many are not playing with their money and will be feeling the burn right now. Todays RNS is a real grounding for the market and shows the complexity of the operations and the technical risks. Trojan is still settling down and it will be one thing after another until a more even keel is established. FR is the main challenge I feel as there is a good plan for Trojan.

In addition to the value added to BNC by the smelter re-starting and a plan to re-start the refinery or that re-start underway this time next year I suspect we will get some movement in DRC with the 3m ozs gold. I suspect it will be a JV with a plan to move to production in quick time funded by the third party partner. Although this is the DRC that project must be worth 2-3p a share if the production is 150k ozs+ and the timeline is 12 months. I also suspect that in a years time the tailings at FR may well have produced something tangible. I am hoping for a resource guestimate of a 500k ozs+ from tailing stacked at surface. The pilot plant is just that a scaled down version to test the process and the ground. Considering this will be bonus production it could well tip FR into substantial profit and proven again could easily add 2-3p a share. Wuffle the rest I see from increasing gold values and Nickel steady at current levels. This will bring about improved sentiment and interest I believe. 20p may be a good ask but right now you are viewing it from these lowly levels so it looks a long way away. Clearly the challenges are technical; results today show FR in it's current form is quite pointless at these gold prices and Trojan is still very much in ramp up.

The last couple of days has been caused by the lack of volume yesterday; a few small sells triggered a drop and punters sitting on substantial profits sold to preserve their paper profits. Add to that some stop-loses triggered and some leveraged trades closed in panic and we have a few million balance in the wrong direction. Meanwhile BNC are well into a 8 month refurb and restart of the Bindura smelter that will have the. The Q1 results are well overdue and the release will help settle the market. There is plenty of other news potential, the next year or so will be transformational. The Journey however will not be smooth; re-rates are rarely straight forwards and fear is as much of a player as greed. In this circumstance the fear is the fear of losing paper profits. I have no fear for MWA, BIND.ZW, Zimbabwe, Nickel or indeed Gold. I strongly believe this share will be in the 20somethings this time next year. I now have 2.1m MWA shares and will buy more tomorrow if the SP stays in the 3-3.5p range.

It is not all about the fundamentals on a minute by minute basis but the trend is all about the fundamentals. The fact is that MWA through BNC is shipping thousands of tons of Nickel concentrate that is delivering a very large profit. MM's will have to work hard to get any supply of shares to trade; they have done very well over the last few days and now they have some shares to fuel a rise. Any investment requires luck but the risks are mitigated when the company is hugely cash generative. It reduces the risk of dilution and increases the chances of a dividend. Right now the re-start of BNC's smelter is underway and that will cost $26m over the next 6 months; however the rewards from such work will be huge over the mid-term. Lots of people have lots of ideas and it largely depends upon your view; is it short, med or long term. I am mid to long and looking to a point in 6-18 months when this share price is in the 20's. This will happen with the smelter producing alloy pellets and the refinery under a re-start programme. There is progress required at FR to make the project cash generative but the progress is a simple process of scale and should be achievable

Seems to me this is dropping because investors are protecting their profit. Dr Fear rules the roost right now and Dr Greed is nowhere to be seen. Looking for any reason for this is just stupid; sells have come because people are protecting profits and guarding against loss. However the fundamentals of the whole drive have not changed at all. MWA are still shipping thousands of tons of concentrate for huge profit. The Q1 results are historically well overdue and that has got some nervous no doubt but I suspect there is much going on elsewhere. The repair work on the smelter will be well underway now and I suggest investors look to a time early next year when BNC restart that smelter. At that point profit for each ton of Nickel will be $6-7000. MWA are massively undervalued, the value is supported with cash profit.

Good luck elsewhere. Be sure to look in again just to see what you could have won; in true bulls eye style . MWA is just starting to get moving, there is a very long way to go before any value has been recognised in the market.

I have in light of the article decided to put my strategy on hold and I will review at a higher level; probably 8p.

Wuffle agreed however they have laid their plans out on the table. To do that without negotiations being at an advanced stage would leave Zimplats at a real disadvantage when it came to discussing fees and finance. The article would not disclose that a deal had been signed, clearly an RNS would be required for that but it does flag a very clear path forwards that appears to fulfil what Zimplats needs and MWA wants. The bottom-line is that the deal must add value beyond what they could do with Nickel alone given the capacity BNC have for Nickel production. The smelter and refinery are key assets and worth many multiple of the current cap. I suspect the deal was common knowledge in Zimbabwe hence the drive up in the BIND.ZW share price.

Did everybody see the article posted on ADVFN. It appears Zimplats have gone public with their intention to process their platinum ore through the BNC facility. This will be a real game changer. The Nickel production is a very nice cake and the deal with Zimplats will be some very tasty icing.

The only sensible answer is to looks at the plans and try to work out how that will be valued. Then add in £30m likely profit, no dilution and a dividend. 20p maybe.

Matt we are waiting on the Q1 figures now. March to June 14 is Q1.

MWA is not a news driven share. The progress to date has been on the recovery of BNC of which MWA owns 76.3%. BNC is listed in Zimbabwe as BIND.ZW which is up 350%. The MWA share of BNC is worth £50m which is just less than the current cap of MWA. MWA is also driven by the huge cash profit the Nickel produces. The Q1 figures are overdue based on last year. An announcement is pending regarding the re-start of the smelter which is likely to be funded from Nickel profits. MWA have expressed a desire in the press to pay a dividend to shareholders at the end of the current year. There is also news pending of a dealo with Platinum producers for smelter and eventually refinery capacity. MWA owns two Nickel mines through BNC and one Nickel resource. All can be brought to production with the lower costs of their own smelter which like the refinery have been on care and maintance.

I would not be surprised to see this share price at 5p within the next week or so. The buys and sells are trading against eachother nicely and the trend is firmly up on tangible progress. The current price is underwritten by real cash profit and a £50m interest in BIND.ZW. The sums make no sense and a £100m market cap would look far less ridiculous right now. Of course this is the AIM which is a very poor measure but even in this warped environment 5p a share must be achieveable in the short term.

is a very smart guy he uses the environment in Zimbabwe to fit his agenda. In this article he is establishing barriers to others who may need to build a smelter knowing that BIND.ZW and/or MWA/BNC could re-start the smelter from internal profits from the Nickel. There was the plan to 50/50 fund then the disclosure in an article that they may/could just fund 100% in-house. The pay-back is 18 months at $16k a ton so at $18k they can raise the funds in 9 months which is about the time it takes to build and commision so they could pay-as-they-go and retain the cash pile. With PGM's the story and the challenge is not the smelter it is the refinery but one does not come without the other and Mpinga needs to know now if there is a deal before the smelter is re-started for Nickel. I suspect a deal to smelter and refine PGM's is not far away. It will take the spare capacity at the smelter processing platinum concentrate that is currently trucked to South Africa. A deal to smelter the feed could well pay to re-start the refinery which is the expensive part of the operation.

BBC now at 6.55 with a market cap of 81m USD. 76.3% is attributable to MWA as BNC is a subsidiary.

The squeeze in low volumes has bought out some sells with 800k passing through in a couple of minutes. We should expect an ebb and flow especially after the rise we have seen recently. The up trend will continue after some consolidation. The driver is real and tangible cash so a rising share price remains inevitable.

The whole point of the smelter and refinery restart is to bring much more of the resource into a economic zone. The total resource and reserve is small on a global scale but we are talking about a tiny company here and there is much more potential to exploit both nearby and in third party hands. Certainly enough to keep the smelter and refinery in business well beyond all of our lifetimes. Nickel is not rare but as a commodity it is in demand proportionate to global growth. The situation in Indonesia was merely the first of many reasons why Nickel prices will stay elevated for the long term. Other Countries will want more local return on their resources and will do similar; very likely Zimbabwe will rather than the current penalty for shipping concentrate. I believe Mpinga has not put a foot wrong restarting this business and now MWA is viable and massively undervalued on a cash measure. However Investors have not a realised this yet. Somebody posted on another forum that MWA is a basketcase and always has been. With the projects on c&m indeed they were but now they are in control of two excellent assets and they have more to bring to value. The Zimbabwe discount is very real and may be as much as 50% just on those who cannot see the difference now to where this deal was a couple of years ago. I turn the Zimbabwe discount around and view it as the singular fact that keeps MWA near exclusive and competion free. The can stretch and fill a large void. Imagine trying to restart a mine and refinery in Europe or Turkey. Permits would take years. Money talks in Zimbabwe. I think we can look forward to a continuation of the rising chart driven by fear and greed which is so far producing a very healthy balance.