Member Info for Tracylied

The company is still making good profit on the Gold and the Nickel. The c3 costs will be coming down on the Nickel by 35% within the Glencore mechanism. They are in a transformational period with the smelter restart under construction set to reduce costs further and improve margin. I think for the business we must remain optimistic as MWA is extremely viable and as values shrink the winners become fewer in number. MWA will still be very profitable.

Yes lots around but none can be bought at any current market value. Where can you get a smelter, refinery, one producing mine, one dormant mine and one resource for $100m. A refinery will cost that. The SP again retreating on dripping small scale selling. I do wonder how far they will walk it down before we see what I feel sure is the inevitable spurt upwards in re-rating. We do need the commodity values to recover some. The value is there but the recent dips have taken the sparkle off.

I suspect they could get BIND.ZW for $3-400m if they really want it

Good business case poor finance market in Zimbabwe. There is a $1000 a ton saving on the transport; $2000 a ton saving on the production against the 35% glencore royalty. Assuming the royalty is reduced to 15% and some third party feed drives the smelting costs down. At lower Nickel values they will get all in costs below $10000; at $18000 they will be at $11000 or so. That is worth looking forward to and must impact this market cap.

I did ask the question and BIND.ZW do intend to debt finance 50% of the smelter. I suspect MWA will be responsible for 76.3% of the funding requirement. They could afford to fund in-house but it would be tight and if the smelter encountered technical difficulties and other scenarios like played out at the same time there would be a chance of running on the rocks which they cannot allow to happen. I would like them to add a couple of months onto the schedule and finance themselves but they are going down the finance route. The upside is the earlier the smelter gets fired up the quicker the costs per ton close in on $10k. They also need to close a deal for third party feed into the smelter to force the costs down. I suspect we will hear about both in the next few weeks.

I suspect the next news will be debt finance for the smelter.

We have already had last years results. The quarterly update will be the 20'something of October and the H1 results will be December.

The LME stock levels certainly cannot be relied upon. They are supposed to disclose the actual stock within their control but there is nothing to say that stock is available for sale. With the pressure on supply and strong demand much of that stock is thought to be already sold or reserved and much of the amount can be considered in transit. There is also the issue of the number of LME recognised warehouse increasing which naturally increases the volume.The Industry states that supply will be in negative territory early next year; I tend to believe that as a scenario and the rise from $14000 a ton supports the view that supply/demand is well balanced.

I would suggest the pull back in Gold and Nickel values has taken the shine off of the cash profit MWA are making. It is unfortunate that just when MWA are forcing down costs the values are also dropping. However the returns are still substantial and this market cap is just crazy.

He only needs to hold one share to be at the Agm. I would have no issue with buying back shares sub 5p then raising at 10p. However they are not in a position to consider dividends or buybacks until the spring. Could all look very different by then.

That is fine if there is a strong business case but these investments can take years to return and buybacks offer almost instant gratification which seems to be the order of the day for the AIM. It would not take much to mop up the free floating shares and add some stability to the share price. Fact is right now the millions profit each quarter and the cash held is funding the restart of the smelter at BNC and paying down some debts so there will be a while before the cash profit becomes loose. The Nickel and Gold values remain under pressure and really need to recover some to attract interest. We already know technical performance has been good this quarter and the figures when released in a months time will attract some attention showing a substantial paper profit. The company are looking forward to a further increase in performance in Gold and Nickel in H2 which starts at the end of this month. The new equipment will make a substantial difference to the projects which have largely fixed costs. The current pressure and squeeze on the share price cannot last much longer

The problem with representing a body of people and their feelings is that there is no consensus of opinion. I have no issue with the performance of the board. I bought my main holding at 1.57p and have added significantly well below the current share price. There is nothing I want this board to do other than carry on exactly as they are doing. The remuneration is now reasonable for a company making profit. I am not bothered about a dividend and want capital appreciation. Share buy-backs may well be an option to dispose of the cash next year or they may well decide to advance ZK. I would support either option.

I got the feeling that you thought you were speaking for shareholders but you were certainly not speaking for me. The auditors have been changed this year and a non exec meddling in the boardroom is rarely productive. As a shareholder I did not appreciate your intervention and I do not think I was alone in that view. I did not misunderstand the view put forward I just do not agree with it.

I see Edison have written a few more words. I still think their figures are way down on where they will ultimately end up. There is little in there for a significant uplift in performance H2 which is expected after the efficiency work. Still the Sp would have to triple to achieve their conservative estimations.

Your trade was not held back, it went through on the secondary platform and was reported at 11:46.

Matt. I think we are in something of a limbo at the moment with no real force acting on the share. The chart is poised on the mid term rising trend, next scheduled news is a month away. We already know the results from the current quarter that ends in two weeks will be strong and will demonstrate that MWA remains extremely profitable. Much is going on in the background which needs to come to the fore in the form of news. Klipspringer diamond mine has been transformed from a liability in care and maintenance to a project that funds the care and maintenance of the underground mine but we need that underground mine to restart to call it an asset. I suspect we will see that happen in the very near term. In DRC we have 3m ozs of good grade gold in the ground; this asset is currently under feasibility after the recent definition drilling was completed. We can expect news from DRC soon from the study and hopefully from a new partner who will take the project to production. Meanwhile the improvements at Freda Rebecca will drive the costs down with the prospect of a 3rd mill or a tailings production to add to the recovery and drive costs down further. At BNC the smelter restart is well underway with completion scheduled for February/March next year. Lots to come to break the current malaise; meanwhile MWA is making a huge amount of profit which the AIM is failing to recognise.

I suspect the MM's are trying to find some sellers. Fact is the situation is heavily stacked and only the desperate would be selling now. They really need a line of stock to allow this to rise or it will just spike up on an increasing spread. It would be the right thing to do for Mr Ning to assist the market as he is so shamed by the performance.

Indeed the government have cut the royalty to attract more investment. Posted below is some noise around challenging Indigenisation............ http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-17822-End%20indigenisation%20confusion,%20Chinamasa/business.aspx#news

I guess it depends who's shares get bought back. The desire for dividends depend upon your tax position largely. They are either good news or they are not. Personally I really do not want them until the refinery is reopen. The thought of giving £5m to shareholders then borrowing £20m to restart the refinery is crazy. Ning was trying to appeal to shareholders in the room by talking of his shame about the fact that after 9 years there had never been a dividend. I do not expect a dividend on the AIM and I look for capital growth as a tax free return. I suspect the refinery restart will be the last major capital requirement probably late 2015. The 3m ozs in DRC may require an investment in phase one for 50k ozs a year production but I suspect a third party will be found to take the project on for a MWA free carry through phase one and two for 200k ozs a year (80k to MWA) The paying of a dividend normally engages a broader investor base but in this case I do not think that would happen. The Dividend hunter would not want to invest in sub Saharan Africa.

I think they wanted to start a shareholder revolt as did Mr Deering the disruptor. They both claimed several times not to know each other but I suspect that was a set up. The fact is that nobody expected a dividend last year. I would not be happy to receive a dividend the see the company take on debt finance to restart the smelter that would be crazy.Ning does not understand the AIM otherwise he wouldn't be panicking right now.