Member Info for Tracylied

Matt mine went through on the secondary platform.

that the share price is back to 2p but not so crazy it has dropped today given the pressure on the Nickel value and the drop in share price at BIND.ZW. There is plenty of desperation across the whole market. However we are sitting pretty here with production and profit from two projects with a third to be added this year. The returns may be modest but against the market cap they are huge. Nickel and Gold are still well into positive territory and the company is cash generative. In the next two weeks we will here how they are doing combatting the costs and pushing volume with the upgraded equipment. Q4 the current quarter will be the real test as the upgrades were completing in Q3 but it will give us an indicator of where this is headed for costs and volume. The ebb and flow continues but mid to long term holders are more interested in the direction of the tide which is on the turn from the lows. I have put another £5k here today and happy to continue that when I can and the SP is this low. Get them whilst you can.

Quite possibly. They funded the restart at Bindura but are not required to restart the smelter. Ning whinged and bleated at the AGM like a big baby. Bizarrely he had not turned up at one board meeting prior to the AGM. I suspect there was some dialogue after the AGM which has broken down. Once the date is set the market will forget about it all. There is no challenge on the management but really they need to get rid of Ning one way or another.

are totally irrelevant but the market is a fool. As the hearing is likely to be a year away and no immediate sanctions have been placed on MWA to protect the Chinese I suspect the case is seen as technical and marginal. A matter for case law I suspect. The outcome if the Chinese win is that there will be a vote on Morris and Botha. Botha was always in a temporary role so by then he may not even be in post. There is nothing to say the Chinese would win the vote unless the threshold was 25/75. They will oppose the two new non execs simply because they are not Chinese. They are local with experience, contacts and networks. Reality is that Southern Africa does not like the Chinese; they do not trust them and they are terrible employers. They will not work well with a major in DRC and they will be not accepted in Zimbabwe on the two projects which are of national importance. They will however take their money.

I am surprised we have not seen any. I don't know if the bond floating would cause an issue. The company are free to buy shares now but Kalaa thinks shareholders would be disapproving of a share buyback. Maybe an e mail to Kalaa from many may convince him.

The price dipped most at the end of the quarter so we will see some. I know the electricity prices are a concern as they have a direct feed from Mozambique which is reliable but expensive. I think we need a to see a good technical and financial performance to demonstrate just what these margins can be when they push production. I am looking forward to these results but I expect Q4 to be the real head-turner. However consider this: Q3 results due the 20 something of this month. The result of Bindura's bond due the 20 something of this month. First drill results from Katanga due February. Results of the PEA/FS from ZK due early this year. Progress with the smelter restart reported through the next few months. I think there will be plenty of attention of Mwana. Plenty to lift this share price.

Yes indeed. I do wonder what the court will make of the petition. They will be considering tomorrow. "An initial directions hearing has been scheduled at the Companies Court for 11:30am on 7 January 2015".

seems to be low volume drippy selling dragging us back down. Gold is looking more healthy today. We are now in Q4 of the 2015 FY. All the refurb work on the existing machinery should be complete and the new equipment should be on-site and in use at Trojan and Freda Rebecca. Kalaa is very focused on pushing the machinery to see what they can squeeze out of the upgrades. The key is simply volume. The costs are largely fixed and increasing the volume by 10% reduces the costs per unit by about 8%. That makes a huge difference on all-in costs for gold at $1061 oz coming down to $970. That doubles the profit and all-in below $1000 will grab some attention. Kalaa thinks they can go to $900 oz all-in costs. The third mill is key to that I think.

I would not be surprised to get an RNS next week detailing some Director buying. It is very difficult to buy in volume right now and any buying will squeeze the SP up.

There has been a geographical deficit for some time now I suspect The additions to the LME stocks have been as a result of investment buying and the movement away from Chinese warehouses after the recent scandals with multiple selling or securing on non existent. It makes sense to me that much of the investment buying is in the east, much of the transfers from Chinese warehouses has been in the east and one is likely to have cancelled the other out. I doubt the investment buying will stop any time soon and I doubt any will be sold below $20k a ton. Very soon MWA will be able to market Nickel leach alloy at something like 85% of spot. They may even achieve a premium to spot minus the refining costs. There should be no need to trouble Glencore unless it is commercially advantageous. I really rate MWA for 2015. It may be slow out of the gate with the production update 3rd week in January. Then we should hear from the bond raising in Zimbabwe and then drilling results from the 8 rig campaign for Copper. Those results will keep coming through the spring into early Summer. Early summer will signal the smelter completion on restart. Multiples on profit will follow. The rest in my view is all about commodity values.

day for gold. Sat just below $1200 an oz. I wonder what 2015 has in store for Gold. MWA will continue to drive the costs down to create some decent margin. Many expect nickel through $20k a ton this year. I suspect they are right and the squeeze on supply will come just as the smelter gets going. A perfect scenario that will force this share price up.

Christmas eve often has low volume in the half day trading. The spread was knocked wide a few days ago to stall any trades.

Is very poor at the moment. The spread is out to deter buying in any quantity. I have every confidence that we will see them soon. There are several distractions with the Q3 ending and the legal challenge to force Mr Botha down. Normal service and trading will return in the new year.

Is back on the climb in a small way today so far. I am not concerned by the stocks of nickel in the warehouses as the available nickel at todays price is just 100k tons and there is little prospect of any of the rest being sold below 20000 a ton. There is also the matter of nickel removed from none LME monitored warehouses following the incidents of multiple trading of non existent stocks. That nickel has to go somewhere. Nickel is only going to head upwards over the next 3 years or so into increasing consumption.

Have a new note out as of the 16th

Not a huge amount to say at the moment. The next operational update will be in January. I think MWA need to show their worth through numbers. There is plenty afoot to turn the situation from a solid profit to a spectacular profit. Until those are delivered I think things will be subdued.

looking strong again and Nickel is slightly challenged today. Importantly both are making good money. On these lower figures £1m a month seems to be the real profit. It will be interesting to see how much of the expenditure was on the new equipment and how much was used turning long term liabilities to short term and paid off. There will get a point soon where they clear the ground and Mwa looks very strong

Based upon some things said at Meet the Miners and an overheard conversation. The Directors were not free to buy until after the results. I believe they will buy and suspect it will be this week. Only basis for that is that there are shares available and they are cheap right now. Let's see if I am correct.

has the buys today at 630k shares and the only trade here is a sell. I wonder if that is pure coincidence or if they want to keep a lid on MWA for now. I suspect the Directors will be buying this week.

now at 16850, clawing it's way back. The third quarter is drawing to an end now with just a couple of weeks remaining. Average Nickel values have been down on last quarter so it will be all about the costs per ton. Certainly there will be healthy average profit margins over the period and all in costs will be reduced as the payments to Glencore for smelting and refining will be reduced. Certainly an all in at 13500 is not beyond reach. However the real change in H2 is hidden because half way through H2 the refurb and replacement of old and inefficient mining and transportation equipment is complete. That will not only step up production through increased availability but will reduce costs. The only thing not playing ball is the share price. Just 3 trades so far and all buys but the SP is marked down.