Member Info for Tracylied

Tavsan really doesn't require much drilling. The beauty of the plan is that a crushing/grinding mill and early stage processing plant will be small and quite cheap against what was spent in the south. It brings in discoveries in the north which would not be viable to truck 70kms as was the original plan. The new plant is globally tiny but costs should be low in about 6 months time and the project will be profitable. With Tavsan we see potential to double output at modest investment and the chance to explore more in areas previously only supporting very high grade returns. Very exciting but 5 years is really the best case in my experience.

I can't see the hurry. It doesn't matter how many shares Kerim has as he won't sell any whilst he is involved with the company. Nothing needs to be done urgently. The company can continue to work as they are as far as I am concerned. The share price will ebb and flow and ultimately rise only when there is some buying volume. The timing of the update is irrelevant the content is the only important factor.

I think it was January 2009 when I bought £10000 worth as part of a placing after an approach from Kerim. Tough times in the market for that to happen. They were at 1p and the lose lips about the placing (from others) forced the price down briefly touching 1p. Never mind the story had a happy ending as I sold them at 2.5p shortly after. Been in and out probably 30 times since. Currently in for a couple of million shares happy to hold now for a year or two. I see stockwire are telling us Kerim is presenting on the 26th April. Largely a waste of funds and time in my opinion as the room will be filled with interested parties with closed minds.

Recovery rates are determined by the actual product per ton measured over 1000's of tons. These are compared to the many lab samples taken from the run of the mill. 80%+ will be the near term target. Currently they will be happy with 50% I imagine. Because the mills and processing plant are very small honing the process should be rapid possibly as short a 2 or 3 months. The cost per ton processed determines the profit. With low recovery more tons are required. The make up of the dore bar is irrelevant as over the life of mine it will achieve an average built into the equivalent. Once the project is profitable the market will value it.

The bars produced will be more like 10% gold. However the point is not about the bar but the amount of ore required to produce it and the recovery from the ore not the dore bar. If the ore grades at say 1g/t and 50% recovery which is typical for the first few months then it performs the same as .5g/t ore and production also costs the same as .5g/t ore. That is below economical production. I fully expect that they will not provide cost info until they reach commercial production.

Which part. I have listened to it all. I have also seen the stockpile of low grade ore for the ramp up. You can't switch on a plant and expect performance from day one. Simply if recoveries are poor and grades are poor 3or 4 times the ore is required to produce every gram. Processing costs per ton of material will be 3-4 design. Yes the block at the end will be the same ratio but that means nothing.

Every ramp up uses low grade material as the results are often recoveries in the 50% range. It will take several months to improve the process. That is super fast but this mine and production facility is tiny so it's achievable. Despite the size once dialed in the production should be very cheap making for a healthy return. The project makes real sense once Tavsan is included. Now Kerim needs to push the exploration side of the business and sell resource/reserves into the Joint venture.

Well then you are easily flummoxed then. Looks like a simple post event selloff to me. How can Kerim set out the economics when they are in ramp up. First meaningful economics information is 9 months away. Clearly they have stated the expected economic and performance objectives. They will be running low grade stock for the first 3 months whilst they perfect the performance of the plant. It would be good to think that will break even. Most projects lose money in ramp up but there is plenty of wiggle room here. We will get quarterly reports once production has stabalised at design levels. Ariana are doing very nicely but this is a 3-5 play to see anything from the JV that really matters. In the meantime Ariana can turn their attention to exploration.

The first of 36 payments was due July 2016 I believe. However it is not Ariana paying that but the JV company. The JV had all the loan money and funds from the partners buy-in. I don't see any likelihood of Ariana raising any funds for RR. The summer drilling season will have a cash demand but that is a matter of scale and Kerim has never spent much on drilling.

The work in the sheds only stops for maintenance and breakdown. Stopping and starting is expensive as batches become unpredictable and unstable. They will shut sections down for maintenance but will stockpile after each process with redundant capacity. I doubt any mining will take place in the dark as it's dangerous enough in daylight. The further through the process the material goes the smaller the volume the easier it is to stop and start. The gold room may will have huge redundant capacity hence the idea of partial production at Tavsan. Ariana has a very exciting future.

The news of the pour was an anticipated event. Some will have bought on the expectation of a spike to sell into; others will have put off selling expecting a better price. It takes a few days to clear that nonsense. Now we will be waiting on the normalisation of production and the first cost/oz figures. They will be high as production settles and the low grade ramp up material will be borderline economic. There are other drivers which are significant at this moderate market cap. We will see the share price rise over the next 12 months.

I do not think you are missing anything here. The interest payment on the GMTN made the bottom-line look rather sad; however that will be more than offset by increased revenue and profits very soon. I think taking $100m then still apparently having $85m after 6/7 months was rather a miscalculation and looks expensive at present with little income to offset the payments. The business model is robust, demand is high and the company have access to aircraft; the growing pains of the first six months made the figures look messy and the share price dropped a bit to largely bounce back. I took more at 130 and 131p which makes me feel better about some I have at 147p. The second half figures should look stronger but the real game changer comes next year assuming the Vietjet 4/5 jets comes off.

We seem to have a very motivated 10000 share seller who is dragging the share price down.

Dhlindy I am watching and accumulating steadily.

yes it was in the announcement on the 11th. However most of them are not available to trade as they are held by our major investors

Agreed China is still growing at a substantial rate and that is compound. It is way outstripping the new Copper available and the balance can only be addressed by scrap at much higher prices. The detail behind the figures will show the reduction in growth is largely in services not manufacture. The future for the copper price will be turbulent but it is only going to trend up.

I don't think much of the PR will be visible or aimed at us. 4C have many contacts in the city and I suspect that is why they are in post. Us micro holders do not need much to be satisfied, a decent and updated website, regular dividends and quarterly production updates. That should see the SP at several multiples of the current; times 30 of course

I think the PR has quite rightly been low key for now. The AIM does not value in advance and they can only release news once. Atalaya are about to do something really will not cut it in the current climate. They are not shouting about anything right now and I think that is the right approach. Production is at 5 mtpa throughput now but until it normalises the market will not be told. I think that is the best way to go. The expansion will be rapid and is well ahead of schedule. By Christmas the production will be normalised and the commissioning will be underway for the expansion to 7.5 mtpa. Phase 2 construction started a couple of months ago and will complete early next year. In less than 12 months PRT will be at full capacity. The PR has plenty of time and the powder should be kept dry until the best moment. After all what is the hurry.

LME monitored warehouse stocks continue to decline now at 293650 tons. Dropping about 3000 tons a day at the moment. Of course this is not the full story of supply and demand, prices remain stable at $2.42 lb. Ideally we would like them at least 10% higher but the profit from each ton is very worthwhile at this level. Next real news will be the normalised production and at that point Atalaya will be firmly in profit.

Stockpiles down to 297150 tons. In steep decline down 60000 tons in a couple of months.