Member Info for Tracylied

I fully expect the annual production to be equivalent to 24000 oz gold. I suspect all in costs to be in the region of $550oz equivalent. All said a healthy return and a rapid loan repayment. Asset value will increase as the loan is paid down. Adding life and high grade reserves to the project must be the priority. I suspect Tavsan will be funded internally by the JV reducing the need for time consuming and expensive desktop studies.In reality they could start the work in 2 years.

The DFS produced a strong but very small project however since it has exceeded expectations and still does. That will result in better than projected margins. Indeed this tiny mine will make more profit than some 5 times the size. The benefit of a technically simple and low volume operation will be consistency over the long term. We need to see more exploration near to the current operations to identify high grade opportunities. I believe Ariana are very well placed to very soon achieve fully internally funded exploration outside of red rabbit and a overall sustainable business. Tavsan will be a partial production facility and will bring 100's square kms of exploration potential within trucking distance of a production plant. Salinbas will progress in the background. Currently exploration development of the existing discovery continues and will for another couple of months. Transformation events pending are clear for all to see but the market rarely values correctly. When an asset delivers but is not recognised that is an opportunity.

I don't think anybody who knows how the mandatory reporting process works was expecting any cost analysis pre commercial production. I think I posted that several times before. It's clearly covered in the meaning of commercial production what the ongoing reporting requirements are. Ramp up is always costly and can be seen as an expense. If some is offset all well and good. Post period they will report the cost per oz and the volumes. However we have the projected costs and the information that grade, recovery and volume are exceeding expectation. We can project from this that we will achieve lower than expected costs per oz than those reported in the study. How that affects the share price I don't know and really don't care too much as I have all my shares now and I am not seeking short term triggers. Value will come as the loan is repaid, exploration produces results or an asset is sold.

As you don't know what the mining costs will be or how much of the resource would fall within the pit you don't know how much it is worth. Certainly what I know of it there is no business case for a $40m investment in a processing facility. Unless they discover to reserve level multiples of the current low confidence resource it is not viable. Unfortunately that involves exploration and funding. I am sure you are for the exploration but against a couple of million to fund it. So what is Kerim to do. I think focusing on a moderate exploration plan and a concentration type of project with production at Kiziltepe in existing JV owned facilities fits well. I think you know very little and have a big mouth. Turkey is beautiful right now and exploration at Salinbas pushes on but with just 5 people and limited kit onsite you can see the cash you bleat about does not go far.

Tavsan only makes sense as a partial production venture. The point of red rabbit is that the current winning and finishing capacity can manage the product from Tavsan. This will halve the investment in Tavsan; the JV owns that required plant not Ariana. I must say I thought Tavsan was already in the project. The cost of a turnkey contractor built plant will be maybe double the cost of one built in house by the JV. Finance and funding is required to keep the wheels turning within Ariana and to fund exploration. Ariana are an exploration company so they will always do that. New reserves will be vested into the JV at 3x cost. That's a great return as Ariana in the JV also benefit from the increased value of the project. Currently red rabbit represents the commercial value minus the debt attached. Once the debt is paid down the value can be attributed to the share price. Your suggested value on the Salinbas material is nonsense. There is no processing or mining facility. No permit to develop and no studies completed. $5 oz in the ground at altitude and difficult terrain is much more realistic. The project will need to be much bigger before it can standalone and they can sell it. Maybe 3-4 million ozs before anyone is interested.

The gold price looks set to extend it's modest recovery over the mid term. That should bode well for the first quarterly production report which the market will receive after the end of September. Assuming profit of $600 oz are achieved a 5000 or so ozs this tiny gold will be punching well above it's weight. There will be clear scope for improvement beyond tag without much further investment. There will be visibility over the debts and timeframes for realistic repayment. We need to know the pecking order for repayments to the partners as Ariana have funds owed to them for exploration ozs into the JV. Assuming all goes well further exploration will be funded and vending into the JV will be an important future income stream for Ariana. The market cap looks very small for the opportunities available.

The 1.25 looks like the sell side of the deal. It was simply a off market transaction much like a bed and Isa. The higher value shows first which is unusual. The company is doing well on all fronts in my opinion. Production margin will make this tiny project on par with many much larger given the predicted low costs and declaration of beyond expectation performance. Only a couple of months until the market knows the profitability then asset value can be rerated as the loan payments accelerate. The exploration is in top gear now and the weather is perfect at altitude. With today's share price we must be optimistic, just need something positive with the gold price.

The term commercial has nothing to do with costs or viability. It can be commercial and lose money if the gold price were below production. Commercial means that the plant is declared operating within the design parameters. Importantly it also denotes the time at which the listed company must report the complete performance of the operation. This mine was likely commercially viable for the last 3 months or so whilst they were dialing in the process. However now they are bound by rules to tell the market. They would have been crazy to report voluntarily the up's and downs of ramp up.

The costs with be released post end September. They say the facility is performing beyond expectation. That has to be good enough for now. We will get an idea in 3 months what the margins and volumes are. We can then workout how long it will take to clear the loan. As it is paid down the asset value will increase and so will the share price. Ariana are due payment for the resource added to red rabbit which can only be released when funds are positive in the JV. Short term it's all about the gold price.

Yes they need to step up the exploration. At RR it will be a good cash earner and at Salinbas it will add value to the asset sale which will no doubt come about in the next few years if they can push it on. Ariana are an exploration company. When RR produces income expect every cent to be spent on exploration and administration of the company. It makes sense to accelerate the spend now in the summer. Clocks ticking and the snow is only 4 months away in the high ground.

The process always takes months and it results in those applying selling their shares down prior to pay for the new shares. It mires the share price for 6 months or more. Unfortunately the AIM is a playground full of children. So some selected investors had a chance to buy larger quantities at a price fractionally below what you could buy on the market and you shout foul. They were constrained by MAR you are not. I see the share price now as good value. I didn't take part in this fund raising but I have in the past with this company. We were given no additional information just the well trodden sales pitch. This world is not equal; the reason being that not all people are equal.

We have seen many times with others how destructive open offers are. The strike price is disclosed and the share price heads straight down leaving no incentive to complete. This way the funds are secure prior to the event. The purpose being to raise funds. On could have taken part if one had enquired and had funds to place. Common knowledge in the investment community hence the share price action. Clearly the share price is well below value and the placing was expensive for some but those who can see beyond the event can see value here. Kerim did what Kerim needed to do to secure funds.

Despite the MAR no doubt that the share price was walked down pre RNS. Whenever they talk to a 3rd party even without mentioning the price the cat is out of the bag. This has been common knowledge for quite some time although the size would not have been known. Now we have to see what the cash produces.

Yes that is the small placing. Unfortunately out there for a while so no surprise. Also no surprise that the share price ws walked down. Small enough not to need a EGM. I think AAU have obligations to the JV and despite paying off a couple of million on the loan the partners have been supporting the project through ramp up which is always expensive. We will know in 3 or 4 months what the cost per oz is. At that point we will know how viable self sufficiency is. Right now the company need to advance exploration and that costs money. Or they delay another year as when cash starts to flow back they will be in to winter. A judgment call but investors can't be frustrated by the speed of work and the cash raising as the two are linked.

Cookie why does it add to any suggested overhang. I doubt these are for retail purposes at this late stage. Overhangs are not real at any price but potential sellers will trigger on the way up; me included.

Well flagged and almost common knowledge. Tells us that as per the mining maven interview that income from the mine hasn't yet been achieved. It will soon enough. The SP has been walked down as shares are swapped ahead of the news. Inside dealing maybe some but the rest is others reacting to the erosion of the share price.

I suspect that there is either a small placing or an expectation of a small placing. If it's real it tells us that the return from production will be a while and Kerim has been doing the rounds with the begging bowl. If it's expectation then rumour drives to the same short term movement. I was inside for a placing in 2009 with this company after Kerim emailed me asking me to participate at 1p. Share price was 1.2p but the day before the placing it was 1p. Loose lips sink shares; oh and those selling to pay for their placing shares. Unfortunately inside trading is a fact.

I certainly would expect selling given the window until news. I guess we wait and see.

Buys and sells have been at the same price most of the morning.

Building 4 new mills will not increase the gold production it would just result in a huge pile f crushed and ground material. The project is very economical because it is small; make it bigger and the cost per oz will likely go up. Personally I see no hurry the purpose is to fund exploration and this tiny plant and winning cycle will produce more than enough to achieve that. There is scale in the later parts of the process and they will expand into that but the most important factor is grade. That is why searching every inch of the ground is vital. Ariana get paid 3 x the cost of discovery so it's a win win for shareholders.