Member Info for Tracylied

Benjie. I don't understand your thought process. If you hold at say 2p how can a move from 1.3-1.6 not be of benefit. It's merely a milestone nothing more. Certainly not an out point for anyone who knows what is going on here. I bought some at 1.3p but certainly won't be selling below 3p. That represents a reasonable value today for me. Of course by then we will know more and my threshold may have increased. The information is clear for the market to see but I am sure we have seen this situation many times before. We are just waiting for the catalyst whatever that may be that triggers interest enough to make the daily climbers list. The outcome is inevitable.

Yes Ariana are but the market value will only increase when we see some buying. The realisation has to be seen as near term for serious money to arrive. I think the window is 2-3 weeks and no doubt the value will squirt past any realistic valuation as Ariana hit the daily climbers list. The wave is coming.

Resistance is certainly being challenged strongly. Beyond 1330 and holding I think we can start to feel positive about the run. Right now Ariana are extending their margins on production with production parameters exceeding expectation at every measure and the gold price on the up. It all adds to the pressure on the share price. 1.60 by mid September.

The price of gold looks like it will break $1300 this week. Obviously there will be resistance against breaking away strongly but $1300+ will bring investment money back for sure. I can tell you that there is no overhang at this price for Ariana. If there ever was one as I said before it is not a huge amount of shares just waiting to be traded. It doesn't much matter because the assumption by some small investors produces the same result by unbalancing the equation. This is done by stemming their buying or selling into the idea. I have remained a steady buyer and last week. Still beautiful in Turkey.

Bottom line is that you don't know who I am but like the "city spivs" you will form deluded thoughts and then project them as fact. I have been in and out of Ariana many times over 10 years or more. Currently I have a substantial holding as I believe that the market does not correctly value the assets. When they do I will sell. What you need to remember is that the market is no one person and the direction is determined by small shareholders largely. People buy and sell based upon what they think others will do. I believe that watchers will buy up to the news following the end of September. They will buy on expectation of a price changing event. The reality is that they are the event. I believe that the share price will be 1.6 by mid September. Simple.

Sorry I don't know who the city spivs are. Do they exist or is this a simple investment strategy. I think that you have a very vivid imagination. Reality is rather different.

It's not as simple as you think. When a retail investor supports a placing they spread the investment amongst many sheets internal and external. They will all have different realisation dates and thresholds. The share price retreats after placing below current value because ordinary shareholders sell on expectation of the share price reducing. At that point there will be no buying and no immediate expectation of buying so the market becomes illiquid. The share drops on very little volume. As the near term thresholds are breached the shares are released. You seem to suggest that the MMs or market has millions of shares to dispose of but that's simply not the case. The reality is that they know who's door to knock on when they are short of stock. This is healthy as stock is needed to fuel as share price recovery. Assumptions fuel the share movement up and down. Rarely do facts play a part. I don't believe that they was ever an actual overhang but the perception or assumption amounts to the same outcome. It matters little as the share price is only going to trend up from here.

I expect this steady rise to continue into the news end of September. The market cap is well below any reasonable value on RedRabbit alone and must increase. I think the overhang if it ever existed is purely price dependent. Liquidity is always a challenge and avoiding runs and spikes will be desirable. I suspect news has now become near term in the eyes of the watchers and they will be here for the next leg. 1.60p mid September and 2.5p+ post news and realisation that the exceeding expectation indicators result in low costs per oz and higher margins. Looking ahead Ariana have an opportunity to grow the market cap substantially and to broaden their portfolio.

Of course they will lapse that's the beauty of options. No commitment.

Of course adding value to the share price is one of several priorities. However the market sets the share price not the directors. The main priorities are keeping the company floating whilst moving the projects forward and adding value. Clearly they have done that The market cap is a better guide than the share price. Exploration is always expensive for a micro like Ariana. However they now have a producing asset so they now have choices. Currently financed and income from production is near term in the form of loan repayments from the JV. I suspect following the summer remote season we will see a real effort to add high grade ozs to RedRabbit. All funded at 3 x cost by the JV. This will be the short to mid term earner until the loan to the banks is paid.

I think it was close to 2p at the start of the year. A very leaky placing at 1p dropping the price to 1.25p. Later 2009 it climbed to 5p ish. A very good year. I took £6000 worth in the placing and dripped them into the rise.

Quite a lot of assumptions there. Part of the debt is owed to Ariana for 3 x the exploration costs on material now vested into the JV. This is an ongoing arrangement. This will certainly be a profit making element moving forward and will drive continued exploration at RedRabbit and at least partially fund elsewhere. Now that there is certainty about returns from the project I doubt we will see any further fund raising for day to day expenses. The companies first objective is to stay in business. In an uncertain financial market that resulted in several punishing placing's. I remember 2009 when it was 1p and shares were trading at 1.5p. The story is very different now as Ariana have access to an income for the first time to offset the expenditure. Paying the loan down quickly allows the JV to aim at other targets sooner. Tavsan is the obvious choice; it could be internally funded within 3 years if gold plays ball. Beyond that Ariana have a share of a serious producer that they will be paid 3 x cost to expand.

Yes indeed that's why Ariana is of interest. If it were fully priced then it would be like all the others. The previous news was all about potential this news is all about fact today. The market cap is crazy and really needs to double to represent anything realistic. I suspect it will do that in the near term. Ariana have some short term hurdles to face but beyond that the business looks very robust.currently valuation is market cap plus 50% of the debt. The asset value will increase rapidly as real profit repays the loans.

Currently $1294. Massive margin at these levels on the over performing RedRabbit Kiziltepe mine. This mine is tiny but makes the profit of many multiples the size. Technically simple and low risk. The share price deserves to be double waiting on the production cost news.

There is no comparison as far as value goes. One is fully priced the other is not. The potential for multiple returns at Ariana are much greater. The game changing information is already known when reading the releases but it will be put together for the consumption of the market in 6 weeks or so. Until then we wait.

The winter is no real challenge at Kiziltepe but at Salinbas it makes exploration impossible. That won't be the case for mechanised mining when whoever is the owner at the time gets around to it. I doubt it will be Ariana or the current JV. This exploration season at Salinbas has another two months of good weather with luck. I am hopeful that it's going to generate some good targets and prove the potential of others previously identified. Beyond this year they will either cash in or ramp up exploration in my opinion. I suspect Kerim wants 3m+ ozs booked before landing the big cash sum but he could tap out earlier. Other scenarios look unlikely to me. Share price / market cap is crazy low and will rise over the next 6 weeks as investors take their positions prior to cost breakdown news that will confirm what some believe.

The third option is to take on more shares whilst you consider them to be undervalued by the market. Looks like some have already; the very cheap buying opportunities may be behind us but still at the current price value is to be had. I think the first leg up will be end September into results.

That's complete nonsense. They have systematically discovered-developed and now produced from the results of many years hard work. In that time they have invested a significant proportion of their remuneration in shares. All of that has been achieved on a shoestring budget through the toughest market conditions. The company is extremely under valued by the market. Not surprising really as many can't see what is under their nose and won't until Ariana are into consistent production and cash is seen to be flowing into the partnership. As for institutions they are risk adverse and will only be interested once production at low cost is established. If Ariana were fairly valued many would be selling now; me included. I see little stopping a run to 4p or so over the next 6-9 months.

I see no problem with any overhang assuming that it is real. Lack of liquidity is an issue for many small shares and assuming that there is a supply then it's unlikely to produce any unsustainable squeeze spikes. As this company move into financial sustainability and profit the share price should lift to a more realistic level. I say assuming it is real because agendas often change with movement in value.

I do fully expect 24000 oz equivalent to be the initial annual production figure. It could very easily increase by a thousand or two. That's no revelation given the information released. Suspect is a much lower confidence term. There is still plenty to go on to suggest better than feasibility performance which should directly relate to below feasibility costs. However costs are a funny thing. As for Tavsan either total or partial internal funding looks a very safe option given the cash generated from the first project. Certainly Ariana can do all the exploration they want for less than half the cash profit each year after the loan is repaid.