Member Info for Tornadotony

https://www.greencoat-capital.com/funds/uk-wind

This lot have made £550M profit from the hike in electricity prices in the past year. Why can't they just fund the Saltend bond or do they expect to get everything from China and make nothing here in the UK. They are making a fortune.

At least the pound is going back up.

Wooden pole gets appointed. Pound starts falling against USD and euro.

Jeff it is all about the gold price and GDXJ and other junior miner indexes. Nothing to do with Shanta itself. We await future re-rate probably early next year.

Mick it declined post period by around $400,000 net.

The channel declines during the day. If Centamin fails to break resistance it is likely to drop back to 87p area during a quiet trading day. So far resistance holding.

Now hitting resistance.

Should be near the middle of production guidance as they passed or near 42,000 end of August. 7,000 ounce run rate gives 70,000. Possible to hit 71,000-72,000. AISC forecast to be $25 over target as a maxima. Tax rebates have helped cash flow.

Not sure how the UK market will react when wooden pole (Liz Truss) gets appointed as PM tomorrow. (around 1400 hrs)

Mike
The honest answer is that could go either way. I have a lot on if it goes higher and I have a lot of cash to buy if it gets cheaper. I suspect gold has a higher probability of continuing what it has done before every FED hike and that is go lower. Centamin does not have the divi as a hook to hold investors. However, it may have its own news flow as we approach end of Q3. I am in the camp that Centamin will have a higher price in January 2023 and I remain positioned for volatility in the shorter term. The problem some may have if gold dropped to $1500 and it was £1400 in UK currency is to actually obtain gold in physical form. It would probably be just a paper trading play. Tony

Most junior gold miners are getting hammered. Some juniors are sitting on a lot of cash and have a lot of ore in the ground but can not guide like Shanta on what they could deliver over several years in front. Some are like Shanta building a mine and have debt with an existing older mine as a main producer, some are just run badly and are failing cost controls, some are located in a country far less stable than Tanzania and some are caught up in arrangements with larger companies or have financing issues. The market lumps them together and when gold sells off most of them are taking behind the wood shed with hard hitting price drops. Later on bargain hunters start appearing and looking for treasure chucked out with the bath water. Shanta may well be the last one that slips in a sell off on gold and it may be the first one to bounce up again when gold recovers. It has nothing to do with how Shanta may perform in 6 months time as it still has 30% of a mine to build and avoiding any mishaps. Tony

Cowichan,

Asking who failed the tender is unlikely to get an answer. Those applying would not likely their ability in not getting a tender being advertised as dozens of experts in writing tenders could bother them.

What is appropriate is to have the published specification of the tender document. This would not be an in commercial confidence. The professionalism of that document and any supporting papers they gave to the bidders is important. The second question is who was on the commissioning panel and did it include those with relevant expertise who supported the tender process advising the panel. The final question was the marking and decision making criteria. Hopefully at least 3 or 4 people gave their advice and views on each tender and graded them. The final question is knowing the difference in grades between a first place and second place tender. Sometimes the winning tender is genuinely 99% ,but the one in second place could be 65% as they failed on something major like on significant safety concerns and others following them may have misread parts of the tender and scored far lower by leaving gaps or were trying to add in costs by changing the specification. Hope that helps. Tony

Was unable to get above 30min, 1hr and 5 hr down channels, but came close to the top and pushed back into the close. All depends what happens over the weekend and Monday on gold. USA market is closed on Monday.

On Gold eagle there is an article suggesting the low for precious metal miners is 14-21 September (FED hikes 21st) with past evidence to show its a likely event. AAZ has put in a 52 week low and we await to see hard they kick the commodities in general.

The permit extension advice is still sometime in H2 is the expectation.

Sotolo,

We could see a low in gold over the next six to eight weeks. After that, my outlook remains positive. I am holding core positions in Centamin. I am pleased the solar farm is now coming on line. I look forward to the link up on the Egyptian grid at some point.

The valuation given below is referencing Pensana at the close price tonight.

Taking the true reserve as 1/3 of indicated resource and 1/2 of measured resource at LJ that is 85,000 tonnes of NdPr, the company is now valued at $2,000 per tonne of NdPr using likely conversion metrics to reserves. This equates to a gold miner being valued at $40 an ounce in their reserves or a resource calibrated equivalent in a fairly stable African state. It values COOLA at nothing, REOs as zero, Saltend development as it stands at zero, all inferred resources at zero and only includes material above the 0.2% cut off and no material beyond the LJ weathered zone and equates no cash in the bank despite a recent $10M placing. A significant proportion of shares, some at 120p have been purchased above the current Pensana share price by AWF so the largest shareholder is heading towards a negative valued holding.

Pensana, Peak, Rainbow, MKA and Lynas have all moved in a similar pattern since 1 January 2022. Lynas only deviated upwards on 26 July. Peak data stopped on the Hargreaves and Lansdowne comparison chart a few weeks ago and was a considerable under performer to that time. RBWR has fared slightly better than MKA and Pensana, but its more a chemical processor and so more comparable to a Saltend only facility than a full mining enterprise. For that matter NEO was also 50% down until the recent news last week.

China market sources have indicated today that exports of NdPr oxides and REOs have declined by 60% thus far in 2022 and I suppose are inferring this to be the real reason for the price drop in the markets. The automobile sector has reduced ordering significant supplies. This appears to fit in with other commodities that have also declined in price as the manufacturing industry has the double challenge of higher energy prices and consumers for their products facing inflationary stress from a range of sources.

The single positive point I will make is that although increasing interest rates may be lowering commodity prices at the present time, it is setting up a much higher price rise later on as company stocks and warehouses are heading to record lows thus recreating the inflationary spike in commodities that arose after prolonged lockdowns from Covid19 with supply disruptions. The only thing that would stop such a second inflationary surge in my opinion is moving a recession into a much prolonged depression with long term demand destruction that included widespread sovereign debt defaults which I hope does not happen.

All the best Tony

My add on was again poor timing after thinking 11p would hold. It all goes into an investor draw in any case. Just hope the Sprott report is at least 50% right and at some future time we revisit 20p.

Reply to Theo,

First of all, this country, the UK, is in a mess as well and I was not implying the superiority of what you suggest. Secondly I do not make a habit of such commentary on the politics, but it is relevant in this sector that Pensana are trying to work in. Thirdly it was not intended as sneering and so you have read an email and put a slant that is not there either. China is not the same as it was say 3 years ago. Xi gets re-elected in November and he will probably continue in power. I thinks its 40% of the Chinese people earn the equivalent of $140 a month and there is concerns within the central party itself on the crackdown of labour movements in the country who want to see things better for those that have not enjoyed what you describe as economic growth. My comments are in no way anti- Chinese. I just feel some aspects of what is going on remind me of the leadership in Venezuela and it can happen in any society when one person has total control. Tony