Member Info for Tornadotony

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I have Polymetal as one of my lowest volume investments just above HOC in my own portfolio. I have held as always expected and wanted a split in the Russian and Kaz mines if a war with Ukraine broke out. Holding a smallish amount is probably easy to do with a hold strategy. The war also has to end at some point as its so damaging to all sides. Tony

In the last interim report, the CEO mentions that beyond the Mara Rosa initial mine site, the licence area includes 3 other sites nearby that are likely to add to the mine plan and they were clearly interested in the evidence for that. Amarillo is believed to have a lot more gold outside of the reserve categories. Longer term SNIP of course which is probably consuming $15M over 3 years is likely to add 700,000 resource ounces of gold for HOC which has a pay back value of at least $28M. Once a mine is constructed it would add 50,000 a year output for HOC if they retain 60% ownership of that project. If Immaculata gets approved for further development it retains 70% of HOC output for several years and ensures that continued production levels would arise up to a decision on SNIP that could offset lower outputs on older mines. Volcan PEA arrives end of year and that could be an interesting read. Tony

Green box applied on my screen.

Freedom

The value depends on ounces in reserves and ounces as resources. Broadly speaking 800,000 in proven and probable ounces at the current gold price has a value of $160 per ounce in a stable country like Brazil or Canada. This gives a takeover price of $128M. The figure also assumes that the mining plan has been worked out which it has been done with a full design. It is likely that all the preparatory work amarillo had done would have been worth some $25M over the past few years. If this was in Africa like Mali or Burkina Faso the price paid would be drastically reduced to around $50M. Tony

https://s27.q4cdn.com/811900961/files/doc_downloads/AGC_Posse_NI43101_3Aug2020-2.pdf

The history of what was done. I gather the purchase is essentially for 800,000 ounces of reserves at proven and probable after 89% recovery on the totals. Amarillo accepted the take over at 66% premium to its share price. Its like someone buying HOC for 116p. A lot of folks may accept a takeover at that price. If HOC offered a low ball figure Amarillo could have just sat on the asset.

SmartP

What I really like Rainbow Rare this morning is that the Board has a USA Ambassador on it. GB is a genius to have him there to brief him on everything that is going on in the market at this time. Regards Tony PS I like the new name handle.

The change 12th August to 23rd is covered in my comments below and show the move of 320,000 shares between the top 20 and overall increase in the holding has grown. At one point Interactive brokers gained 2M shares and it only disappeared in the 12th August from Vidacos. The grand total is incorrect on 28 July by 2M, but its corrected again by 12 August.

Theo has MI5, MI6 and GCHQ got taps on all your devices or has the Chinese security services managed to remove them all. They have all been listening in on me for years and I have kept them well entertained. Yes there is foul play by the Chinese government going on. All they are doing of course is delivering really cheap share prices that are getting bought like its Christmas and creating the mother of all supply issues for NdPr in the not so distant future. The West has one huge advantage over China and that is collective creative innovative original thinking which is not in abundance within an authoritarian state, operating with just a single brain, in which the consequences bear witness on a daily basis. It is confirmed by many Chinese people who have escaped from China where they have been able to subsequently exercise their natural intelligence unimpeded by the excessive theta ratio of stupidity (which unfortunately is not as low as we would like it to be in the UK). As night follows day this commentary will probably be deleted by the morning, but hopefully after Chinasyndrome has had a chance to read it. Tony

Stanley hardly anybody gets a top or bottom all the time when buying shares. When you do get one its like a hat trick of strikes in ten pin bowling or a hole in one at golf. Sometimes a spare or an eagle will do.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-08-24/gold-and-silver-are-disappearing-vaults-worldwide

I noticed Royal mint had no 100g gold bars and no high weight silver bars and await stock (bet that costs a lot of energy to turn into a bar or fancy coin). I give HOC two months and we will be travelling towards the higher uplands again.

Really happy with GBs presentation and for him to talk some chemistry. Rainbow is now 7% of my portfolio as I added 75%. I hope Rainbow will use their EU contacts and encourage them to buy African sourced material rather than the price manipulated antics going on over in China which incidentally can not work out in the longer term and only delay innovative technologies from meeting global demand targets. Now leaving this one in the draw for it to deliver in a few years time.

oops blood in second line

Tommy

Everything you say is true on what Synairgen achieved. It only leaves two issues they missed out on. The first was not linking with a biomarker on retained bolld samples in trial participants via biobanking. The second is having the means to have a single production batch annually for orphan drug prescription use at a lower price than say £2,000 a dose. If it was half that cost it would be utilised for a wider healthcare market and would get a good take up despite having to pay for the biomarker test or screening for it amongst a larger group of patients. Both skill sets are embedded at Southampton a former home of managing the Health Technology Assessment programme. The best skills sat on Synairgen's doorstep and some of us thought they may have used the talent that was around them. Instead it was over confidence and failing to guard attention to detail that scored against them and that includes that have dedicated years to that medication. Synairgen has staff and its leaders scarred by what happened.

I still have a few shares Tommy, but 7,000 I did have and sold as losses are now fully recovered with gains elsewhere. I am still recovering more but I feel better capturing gains and partially moving on. Everyone who invested in Synairgen backed good science and they backed a great centre to deliver it. Nobody should blame themselves for what happened as we were not part of the inside story and they really believed they had the bases covered. Anyone forecasting they knew it would fail have no facts to back it up. For those holding on, I hope you have more resources and are winning elsewhere as you wait for results here. It is important to think what you write on these boards as to whether it helps readers or not and if it doesn't do not write it. I hope what I have said here helps some of you. Stay well and kind regards Tony

OOps HL not HK in previous

Top holdings up on 12 August. Number 20 may be closing down their business as a new entity with just 9,000 less shares replace them as HSBC Client holdings nominees based in canary wharf. Int brokers in 11th up 234,000 shares may have taken the 167K Pershing drop and JIMs 160k down offset by HK up 80k and IT by 85K. 6 no changes with 4 under 10k moves.

JP Morgan calls for renewables and associated metals to deliver it as an investor focus in Europe, this morning on Bloomberg. The quicker they got on with it, the more sustainable the energy future will be. Hopefully we get JPM pulling resources into this sector.

Once again a lot of info was made available for us to read and feel part of the investment story. I dare say the company will come back and say we have just updated the market and I have to say I am really happy they touched base with us. Lets await end of September and early October. In the background we have commodity price fall in the market which will make NdPr scarcity a huge problem later on.

Siko

I concur with others here in having your inputs on the board as and when you want to contribute. I certainly appreciate NHS staff and for everyone trying to do the impossible. If anything I just want to encourage people to persist if they suspect they have a serious problem and not to delay and get the help they need. All the best Tony

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PRE/notice-of-gm/15596168

If it can keep it up it will be just a divi that will slip it back to 90p or so. I have noticed Shanta and Polymetal have behaved similar. HOC has taken a hit along with a few others.