Member Info for Tornadotony

Jim has predicted a major low forming in October on his Elliott Wave formula all year. He claims his measurement has an 85% confidence level. He has the bottom during October with a plus 20% rally in gold afterwards.

Chan has a market formula of moving averages to give his BP Gold indicator. It is currently well below 10%. He points out that falls below 10% are relatively rare. On the last 3 occasions this happened a major change occurred within one month on gold and GDX. GDX went up 40% -150% and gold went up between $200-$500.

What we do not have is the history of his indicator before 2015 unless somebody has joined his subscription club on whether the formulae always work or that data exists.
Its the end of Chans paper you need to look at.
Tony

Sotolo,

At this moment in time the FED will not open swap lines to other central banks. As a result, the money markets globally are grinding to a halt. The yuan depreciated 1% in the last 24 hours and there is evidence of panic building in the Chinese markets. FX restrictions are likely to soon come into force in China We are seeing the beginning of a major global economic crash. The FED have taken the view that is USA first and their battle against inflation and the global role of a reserve currency is not their problem. The USA stock market will soon tell them it is their problem with a runaway USD. We are approaching a major event and I am not sure how it plays out. Around 40% of my portfolio is cash (that I have added). The FED has no idea of the damage unfolding and the problem is that it won't solve their inflation crisis either.
We are approaching a 2008-2010 crisis in my opinion. As an aside I went to a mall at Brent Cross yesterday and the easiest thing to do was find a parking space and find staff members serving if I wanted anything. The economy is going dead in the UK. The best deals for shopping were in Marks and Spencers. Tony

Sotolo,

Briefly the reactions in the market are now the most extreme on gold selling since 2015. In the past 7 years such events have led to an event where panic has set in, and a significant amount of gold buying occurred. Each point on Chan's graph is two weeks and most events took 2 weeks to one month to build up. What we do not know in that paper is the history of earlier events like in 1980 when the value of dollar exploded to 160 on DXY. Chan has reported the clock on entering this zone has started. The fact so many people can no longer get a mortgage and rates are taking off could be a major recessionary signal. The same is now occurring in USA. The speed of rate hikes is having a major impact. Tony

Sotolo, (all other readers out there),

The number one important issue in your life is your health. If everything is working fine and you can still laugh at yourself and remain resilient, your still in business. The second is your family is in good health and if you have a mortgage free house as well it qualifies you as still be wealthy as an awful lot of people do not have that position.

I recall when I was new to investing and thought it was clever putting a huge amount of money into National Grid shares. Six weeks later after they denied they were going to do a rights issue but they did one in May 2010 to please the regulator. NG shares collapsed by 40% on a single RNS. I held firm and did all the right things to please the wife (which is extremely important in such circumstances). A year later the National Grid shares recovered, and I sold out with a £20,000 gain. If I had held them and did nothing, I would have made far more money, but the lesson encouraged me never again to have all the eggs in one basket.

I thought Chan's observation on the gold market was interesting at Gold Eagle last Saturday. It matches up with a major event happening in October. I have a feeling China is starting to sell all those USA Treasuries their holding. Take care whatever happens and all the best. Tony

https://africabusinesscommunities.com/sustainable-energy/news/world-bank-approves-335m-to-scale-up-grid-extension-and-densification-in-tanzania/

Gone in averaged down 2021 pool holding by 11p. Thanks Liquidsilver.

3% up this morning and higher than 30 days ago.

AGM is in a couple of months' time.

It will close the higher gap at some point in the future.

Not sure why this is selling off when the currency share price has tanked.

Theo and all our other readers to this LSE page,
I had my own doubts on Pensana when the plan changed from bfs and just a mining company. I thought it was to be complicated and risky. I ended up buying back a few days later when it was a cheaper price, but also, I had changed my opinion that it was pointless giving rare earth ores to China at knocked down value prices. The MRES sulphate work also convinced me the company was on to something. I ended up doubling my investment. I know Paul Atherley can be frustrating as he owns 5% of the company and strays from being a typical Chairman to a shareholder who has bet the house on his favourite baby. Paul has worked for years in China, and he knows their strategy and how they operate. To his credit he has read their every move with Rocky also pointing out what they are likely to do next. The company has also had to deal with a green washing brigade and managing to avoid those mistakes, but it cost the company time to avoid that elephant trap. The FEED work was a lot more complicated as they got into it and the company persevered and what was annoying was being told unrealistic deadlines as if we were all children. It would have been better to say that FEED found a dozen problems and they were working through them all to give the correct design and it was like Tennyson's poem of flower in a crannied wall and hence it was May before it was all done for Saltend and we learn later they are still finishing mine designs and hopefully they will improve NdPr recoveries.

The fact is that the project itself has got better and it has created a lot more value and it is noticeable that competition has responded to what Pensana has been doing. I am hoping after Friday that Kwasi is ringing up a few UK billionaires and say we gave you a promising budget, now can you demonstrate your intelligence and financial power to grow the UK economy by supporting business and products that propels the UK onto the global stage and point them to what is going on for example at Saltend and other places he visited. The pressure is on those who can make a difference and that we get say a number of projects funded. If a group of billionaires sponsored a programme of 10 projects, it would only take two to succeed in a big way to cover the funding of all 10 and if they got 6 out of 10 winners, they would want to repeat the exercise over and over again. Kwasi needs to set up his committee of the intelligent generous wealthy and then the whole of the UK can see if Truss and company are really onto something. The problem everywhere is that a lot of detail is hidden from us. It is partly to protect the identity of individuals, commercial in confidence material and finally awareness of international competition. For these reasons we do not always get the transparency we want in this sector. Tony

Theo,

The vast majority of hugely successful endeavours have sailed very close to the wind of near failure beforehand. Pensana is doing that and investing has risks. The key is whether the recession breaks down the climate protection agenda. Expect a lot of heated arguments before COP27 on that one. The second biggest issue is what will be the longer-term market price for NDPr oxides. If the world gives up on climate change, then its $90,000 per tonne or less and new entrants fail to enter the market. If the politics pursues sustainability and the consumer recovers after the recession, then its $120,000 to $150,000 a tonne and demand is such is that Pensana and 6 to 8 similar companies enter the market and the price per tonne will edge higher.

The third aspect is the capital markets opening up again. All I can say is they cannot be shut forever as what was the point of removing a cap on bankers' bonuses. A prolonged recession leads to a sovereign debt crisis's everywhere and Pensana will be the last of all are worries. Tony

Theo

I can only go valuations on in the ground and production profiling. If you choose cash flow models with Pensana takeover as two and half years free cash flow you will then have to predict what the average price of NdPrO will be from 2025. If Pensana projections are correct than the takeover price is $500M. If it was $90,000 a tonne as it is today the figure is $200M which matches in the ground price of 80p a share.

I should start by just clarifying my in the ground valuation should have been either 0.02 or 2% not 0.02% as written although the final figure is the same. I hope it did not poleaxe what happened today.

I should also clarify that if 0.27% final recovery data in the report if used after production phases (as identified by piloting or what they call search analysis), then a production valuation has to be used which is typically around 6.5%-7% instead of 2% to keep the valuation on the same basis. Anyone trying to buy the project and partner with AWF on the same terms would still give an 80p plus figure imop.

3bear, the pound has fallen so the UK budget should be a tailwind. It went flat on the initial fall and has now resumed. We now have to wait for a confirmed bottom.

Will Centamin rally back up if gold moves up to 1680 this afternoon? It might, but we know the top end is lower than 89.5p. It may also stay flat, and we see gold retrace to where it has been this morning.

Having a few silver coins could be for an emergency situation to get you through a bad week. Getting fuel and food when FIAT is no use, and the credit card and IT systems are down. It is a scenario to hope that it never happens, but if it did the premium and VAT charges would be paid back in having something useful to trade for what you needed.

I had a feeling that was going to be the play. 90p was too good to be true with gold at 1680.

166,000 x 0.90 (recovery rate) x (0.02% (in ground valuation) x $90,000 (SMM current price)= $269M

248M shares = 92 cents at 1.14 exchange rate = 80.7p