Member Info for Tornadotony

No I did not attend the AGM.

I expected a large vote in favour of the resolutions and I said they had to occur.

Everything said at the GM will also be opinion with all the caveats as anything substantive would appear as an RNS.

Previous RNS in March clearly stated the company was reviewing all its costs by this month. The purpose is to identify the resources they need. Hence why they need the capacity to undertake a share dilution.

Everything LSE members write on these Boards is just opinion. To declare what someone else wrote as advice is wrong. To speculate on individual expertise is another dead cat chucked on the table and completely irrelevant. What is noticeable is how some people are desperate to shut other people up. In the past LSE members did write IMOP nearly all the time. However, most readers are aware of the obvious and so the practice has largely disappeared. What anybody does with their investment choice is for them to own. Giving an opinion on one particular pathway is the same for opinions given by others on a different pathway route.

I presume on the basis of continued enterprise value consumption without generating any actual income is Theo analysis. The only way to generate value without financing sources for the main project is continued LJ drilling adding more to the reserves and hope the value is higher than drilling expenditure. Otherwise the share price continues to fall over time. Without real construction finance the company becomes valued as a junior explorer. Hence, Theo is right although the timing may depend on cash savings the company undertakes.

The alternative is to sell the company to an organisation that can deliver both projects and the best price is around 20p-22p. It would be a similar outcome to what happened on a previous Paul Atherley project. The purchase may be in the form of a share swap, but it could de-risk positions for the existing Pensana holders and may have a better result than waiting for a high cost finance deal. AWF and M&G may probably support such a move if Pensana does not deliver over the summer months.

Just added now 25% in and Centamin overtaking my rare earth holdings. At 33% in, will only have Shanta gold in front of CEY. As it drops I intend to keep buying. Can not predict a bottom but Centamin now pricing gold below $1880 an ounce.

Centamin anticipated the drop in gold and is still 1.5% below any retreat in the GDX ETF that happened today. Expecting a reasonable probability of 98p holding tomorrow unless gold does much bigger drop overnight.

Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/storm-that-s-delaying-india-monsoon-will-become-severe-cyclone-1.1929796

The suspense is also the monsoon for India and it now delayed until Friday.

Added into position. About 1/6th in. Not sure of how it plays out, but now have more Centamin than HOC.

Near not neat.

A lot of sells have been buys and some of you may have tested with dummy trades or actually bought at 11.33 etcetera. Not sure how low they can drive Shanta with an average sales probably neat $1930 per ounce for the year. The company will be announcing increased production figures that exceed when the stock was last priced at 16p. They appear to be ignoring the new mine output thus far perhaps waiting for confirmatory news. The under valuation of Shanta is getting into significant premiums on offer.

Chinasyndrome

The key issue was pointed out by the Rockefella Institute on Bloomberg, I think it was last weekend, as to why companies like Pensana are not getting funded. At the present time central bankers are applying global demand destruction. Thus far it has been resolving all the previous supply chain issues in most sectors that arose from Covid-19 shut downs. The model of demand destruction is also reducing energy consumption through higher pricing and higher general inflation is forcing societies to restrain on consumption and hence why China exports are now dropping fast. It also is the reason why Saudi Arabia took 1 million barrels a day off OPEC production. Overall it is an alternative means of reducing carbon sourced energy by using a very blunt instrument. A major recession is on the cards and OECD reduced GDP to 2.7% when inflation in many countries is well above that figure. The knock on effect is having higher bond prices on sovereign debt and company bonds having liquidity risks attached to them especially for projects like those of Pensana (company without on-going revenue to finance own Capex). Equity investors are then being squeezed on any returns they might hope for. The company data is also highly sensitive to a company's published ore reserves and how they were calculated and lenders are influenced by current commodity prices and the limitations on their recovery on models they may use.

A final point is that it has not been clever throwing a headlight on South Africa when a lot of key Pensana staff are based there and banking as well as strategic investor interest was based. This has probably contributed to a collapse in share trading volume of late.

As for the future, new PIs will probably listen to the 7th October Crux interview and the one in March 2022 and await what is said in June at the GM tomorrow.

Tony

Oops should have said allowing for the net increase in 1.5M ounce resources....

On my metrics the lowest value is at least 12.8p allowing for the debt, allowing for the net 1.5M ounces in resources at the $1960 per ounce gold price. Once the debt has been cleared the baseline price is 14.2p (Dec 2023?). Once resources in WK are declared as reserves and lets assume it is just 500,000 ounces, the baseline converts to 16.9p. At 1m ounce reserves in WK that becomes 19.6p. On top of this the company is owed tax rebates on VAT. It will also have a lower AISC in 2024 and can produce 16% plus more gold. If someone wanted to buy Shanta now having de-risked the new mine production, the price starts at 20p. Tony

Astro no manipulation as Centamin has followed the GDX ETF just about perfectly all month and that contains a lot of other miners. It will be test to see if 98p continues to hold and Centamin edges higher or whether it gives way. We should know in the next 48 hours. I remain flat with a very small position to see where it goes.

The support line area is quite strong and the descending resistance channel has nearly run out of room. Like a triangle with less space between support and the resistance.

98p support line doing okay this morning and a possibility for a bounce to top of the down channel around 100.5p area if gold holds or edges a bit higher. Overnight Asia markets favouring a FED pause however that view can change back quickly. AT least FED members are in black out with media. Gold in USD appears to like pause message as USD edges back.

A USA stock listing on the horizon. This investment is just a few months away from being a significant winner. It will not be on the 8p handle for long.

Astro

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/05/-India-s-rainfall-delayed-by-another-2-3-days-weather-officials

They will have a good idea how much rain is arriving by late June. A good rain, is a good harvest which leads to heavier physical gold buying later on as jewellery makers get busy for weddings later in the year. We tend to get dips in June spot prices as the jewellery makers want a lower price to cover their margins.

https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/charts?s=US2YT

In addition two year Treasury yields have moved up as well.

1. It allocates shares to AWF as part of the previous financing.

2. It allows the company to raise 27 million new shares to give a total of around 300M shares if the resolution is passed.

They do not go bust if the resolution gets supported. The guess is how much they get from the market on the future dilution. Trying to get a higher VWAP is part of the game played of late. However ,the best they may get is 27p area again as trying to push a VWAP higher on no volume does not fool anybody. Pensana book value is currently only 19p and that is from published sources anybody can find on the internet. If they got 27.5p on the dilution they would have done well to get it at this time.

ChinaS and SP

Please stop trading garbage messages on the LSE Boards. It is utterly pointless. RBW will have all the evidence to prove itself in the coming 2 months. Pensana will almost certainly do a share dilution as it is what they are voting on later in the week so it won't go bust in 2 months. Boredom seems to promote stupidity for idle hands.