Member Info for Tornadotony

Shanta and Centamin more or less have been tracking together since mid February 2023. Both companies were tipped as very high chances for being bought and taken over in mining news journals and analyst sites.

I am sticking it out. This company is worth far more than the current price. There is no excuse for the behaviour that Mr Odey was accused of. It is unfortunate we all have to suffer the actions that follow. I have kept a cash reserve back but the person was to use when a bottom was in place and the stock was going up. A portion got used when the share rallied from 9p to 9.7p. The market is all bearish on gold and the miners and all on one side of the boat. If investing was easy everyone would do it. The company is of high quality in comparison to its peers in my opinion.

Sotolo,

Centamin production is 22% higher in H2. Pound sterling may also retreat as the currency is heading into a recession. The company earns in USD. Centamin also declared an increase in 1.8M reserve ounces of gold in the ground equivalent to 3 years production. It does not make sense to be as low as this. 87p is sub 1700 gold price.

Great news. Real assets at the moment are punished and bubble muck goes up. It will turn at some point. Still holding my core positions HZM 4th place in my portfolio.

It has retreated again this morning. We are witnessing kitchen sink bear market. I still have cash in the portfolio to support positions. Awaiting to see how crazy this may get. At some point Centamin will turn and it will have a very powerful rally behind it. The company will report significant H2 earnings with average gold sold over six months above $1930 an ounce. My timing as usual was on the early side. Horgan was right when he said Centamin on the 80's handle is very cheap.

Steve

We all invest in ways that we are comfortable with. I am quite happy building my positions and if I have to wait awhile to an exit time so be it. Just under 6% of my portfolio is in rainbow rare earths and I am quite happy to let it sit there for the next 3 to 4 years and do nothing with it. Centamin I titrate in and out of the stock and it has worked well for me over many years. I do recall on one occasion probably December 2015 when the RSI touched 18. It was of course a major bottom. The RSI on the daily is around 23 and that is not that common and very low for Centamin. Tony

9 days in a row of continuous selling on Centamin. There has never been 10 days of retreat since 1 January 2019. The last at 9 days was the 106p to 80p drop December 2021. Still bought another tranche at 89.22 today.

It was only worse then currently when movement was discovered in the Sukari wall 2 October 2020. Gold was at it its lowest in the past 4 years around April 2019, 1270 ish per ounce.

The last two occasions the Centamin technicals on RSI and slow stochastics managed to get lowere then now was around 10th October 2020 and 18th April 2019.

89p Centamin is usually $1810 gold price. At 1915 it should be 103p.

The RNS due this week was to provide revised 2023 production guidance data. The company has probably mined out more, assessing grade tonnage data to give a best shot of what it will be. The minimum is probably 79,000 ounces. If they gave a figure over 88,000, there is no way the share can be in single figures with gold above 1800 per ounce.

The new Directors if it happened would award themselves all the money and nothing for us PI holders. Better the devil you know.

Theo

The feedback on the bond was given by PA in an interview in New York around December 2021/January 2022. The bond was not awarded as the company only had mine resources being declared (now have declared reserves in a report Sept 2022), the FEED needed more work (Completed in April 2022, but had the caveat of a phase 2 fine detail FEED for the mine autumn 2022 (which they may have done). It was also required they obtain a rating for a green (ish) project bond and without it they would not get finance (was completed June 2022 Cicero light green) and to note banks introduced that requirement just before COP26 to stop greenwashing which little Greta complained about.

The Great wall finance plan was assigned in principle for a less ambitious mine then what is envisaged now. It required all the ore probably going to China. An October 2020 RNS opened up the value chain of Saltend and so the Great Wall route got dropped and it was discussed by a lot of us back then. If it had gone ahead the mine would have been in production now but the price on the ore sold this year would have been awful. ABSA may find some interest within Norway and hopefully USA. I will be interested in how the share price responds tomorrow. As for Angola, they have made a real effort to support inward investment and it is more than lipstick to offer 25% of the funds imop. I wish our lot in the UK would do something. It may well be that Pensana is giving up on the UK as an investment prospect and may try to go State side. The investment for growth and climate changed under Sunak/Hunt.

The biggest impact of the RNS was the company holding 1.8M gold ounces as probable reserves. It was not Indicated resources it was reserves. The value of a gold ounce as a reserve without a functional mine is typically $100 per ounce. Perhaps with respect to the grade of ore it may be as low as $80 per ounce. An indicated resource ounce at higher grades may be valued at $40 per ounce, but again let us say it was $30 for being under 2g/t. So the value impact over previous RNS knowledge on Doropo was $50 x 1.8M ounces = $90M in the ground value. This value is worth 6.7p per share. The rise in the share price was completely justified. The sell down retreat may have stopped Centamin falling into the 80's on gold's retreat. The stock is approaching a bottom it is possibly a good buying opportunity. It has a tailwind of Doropo reserves valuation, 22% increase in production over H1 into H2 and we are getting improving news on the India monsoon weather when I last posted it on here yesterday.

The mine of course is open pit and it requires $73M infrastructure spend now all included in the costs. Infrastructure includes roads, power connections to grid and other utilities. The AISC and gold price assumptions reflect the inflation impact since June 2021.

All the best Tony

Lets get away from the fully funded title which is wrong. It is not fully funded at this time.

All the company has is a $15M loan and a route to $65M in additional finance and $35M infrastructure savings on their original costings from Angola Government infrastructure spend in principle.

When one source has pledged a position others decide if they will agree to contribute to an offering and what they want to take for their slice of funds. I believe the strategy needs a second cornerstone funding source other than the banks and whoever that is they have route to market experience and has a lot of know how in overseeing mine construction.

If the company just announced Sovereign Wealth Cornerstone funding arrangement being a $15M loan and a $65M follow on once other tranche funding and due diligence was completed for mine construction, the response tomorrow would be an uplift in the SP. Everyone here would see 25% funding from the main share holder giving 25% funding investment for the mine build. It would mean other funders not having 25% of the reward, but not having 25% of the project risk. It would have created momentum for Pensana.

The second tranche from the banks is being reduced to $120M. I suspect another RNS may follow to try and up that level to $160M in fact the banks will probably uplift it anyway, but have decision points before funding is released as the project goes forward. The final piece is another cornerstone funder. Someone engaged all of this year appears to have pulled out, but it now advertises the vacancy to everyone else on the globe or alternatively if they had not made a decision to do so at God's speed. It would mirror HZM funding if the second cornerstone funder matching Angola Sovereign contribution of $80M. The company may also need to make a call for some more share dilution as a contingency.

Overall the company has one piece of good news tonight. They need to follow it with an execution of further good news as the other pieces drop into place. What most funding sources will want to know is why the strategic investor piece fell through if it has done so and whether a USA source wanting the mining output to a new USA refinery is now on the cards and so they help deliver the mine and its construction finance.

Gap created this morning appears to be closed as 0.05p is within rounding error around 90.85p. Gap remaining is above between 100.5p and 101.1p which is large enough (0.6p) for a back filling target in a future CEY rally.

The company has 5 key positive back drops for funding.

1. AWF and MG past support.

2. Biden initiative in the sector.

3. The need to restock military equipment, climate protection applications, AI and robotic use creates huge future demand.

4. China ability to manipulate current supply.

5. The mine asset in Angola has a higher value that the past drilling and licence payments in the accounts.

Hence why they are in the last saloon for funding as there is no excuse in at least funding the Angola mine in the coming weeks. If they can not get funding with those 5 positives it will never get funded. Some people will choose to add on with those 5 in the background and some will take some off the table as the outcome is binary.

I sense the bottom is in play on Centamin. It is seriously undervalued as we go into H2 as production is planned to be 22% higher than H1 and we still have gold futures in the 1930's. If a July summer rally in gold takes place we could see Centamin testing 125p again.

Good job I was 85% bought in at the close yesterday. The rest can be held in case the bottom is not in. The Doropo study shows the company could earn around $185M if they sold it as an asset.