Member Info for Tornadotony

Late October 2022, gold $1680 per ounce with Centamin on lower production and earning far less per ounce sold, priced at 87.5p.

Http://harmful.cat-v.org/people/basic-laws-of-human-stupidity/?fbclid=IwAR0Zo2XiHPwhw4T9GBSyM6aZj5dxUOscMApsG2KmrO1Ifqa-LqPKOpq9fl0

Stupidity is everywhere and that is why more intelligent people sometimes suffer with depression.

A case of everyone managing the risk they feel comfortable with. Any stock pre-funding without a steady cash flow stream is high risk. It is important to consider the wipe-out result and to ask can my portfolio recover from it within a few months. Equally, some will see the contraction in capital gains tax allowances (here in the UK) and use losses as not to pay more tax on other positive result investments elsewhere.

The waste clearance may have been covered in a Q1 results presentation. I recall something like it will be resolved by the end of this year. Will need to revisit CEO presentations but that would be the one to check out first.

Look at the volume. It is a Friday night tease.

Gold just broke through the average price of the year. The ETFs are now finally moving up. I am mystified why this is stuck at such a low SP and do not believe it has anything to do with a subcontractor.

Centamin average price for this year is 104.4p and the average futures price so far in 2023 was $1937 per ounce.

Currently $6 below the mean, but CEY only valued at 85.2% of the average mean value. So earnings 1% less in gold futures today they are -14.8% in the share price. The same issue exists with gold miner ETFs.

Doing my gold dance come on Shanta time to go up.

As numbers were lower than expected.

Time for Centamin to rally. Come on baby.

One additional statistic that offers a divergence with the ADP numbers and probably Non Farm Pay roles later today. was the grand total of people in work shrank by 315,000. So how can monthly numbers go up when the national employment numbers are shrinking. Hence the theory of part-time second jobs being counted in the numbers.

More details;

USA ADP

Job numbers in manufacturing, information and finance are falling.

ISM reports recession and ISM services is rising, but showing late cycle growth.

Jobs increasing are in Leisure and hospitality (after all it is summer), trade and transport, education and health services.

71M USA citizens are on Medicare and this fuels health service spending supported and paid by the Government.

California is in recession and certainly going out to restaurants is in decline. The Carolinas are booming on the southwest coast of USA which are apparently having a construction boom. The midwestern States are now experiencing a big slow down and are clearly heading into a recession. The eastern seaboard States are braced for hurricane season and it is normal for USA workers to migrate there in anticipation of future work. A lot of the job activities are geared to repairing the damage afterwards. This of course is measured as positive GDP growth.

The FED has a problem as regional variations in the states clearly exist to people who live in those areas. Anything to do with making products outside of the military is probably in recession. Anything associated and attached to services where the government pays is rising (increased fiscal spend). Raising rates is not the answer unless they want a magnified deeper recession. Not surprised some hedge funds are preparing for a very hard landing.

Inverted yield curves suggesting major recession risk that is greater than 2008.

Tony

They would need to give the workforce some kind of notice if Inmaculada were to close. Some kind of legal cover must have been given for operations to continue. The mine was within the requirements before and has not broken any regs that we know of. If the government lose the income they need to think how it gets replaced in the economy overall. Otherwise they are following the bad examples set in the UK.

Mr Tibbs they are cheap. The only negative stat is 5% appreciation in the pound, but they also have an additional 1.8M reserve ounces added (without a mine = $80 an ounce). They report on the Sukari expansion results in December and will identify how much of the depleted reserves are being replaced. In December last year 800,000 reserves were replaced and 1.3M resource ounces were added 13 Dec RNS 2022. So the -5% on the pound is off set by likely equal to the the reserve after recovering all 2023 mining. The Doropo reserves declared equal 6p on the share price. 5% of Centamin at peak price of 125p is 6.25p CEY share price and so they equal out.

Only took two days to have RSIs oversold and stochastics on zero. I have two bonds maturing next month and another later this month. Enough to double my Centamin position. Considering production is way higher than in H1 and 88p represented 1750 gold last year and at 1911 area it was 103p. The AISC is about the same and production this year is higher. Centamin is clobbered 17% lower with earnings far higher. Average gold price sold last year was 1789 and probably over 1925 so far this year. Massively undervalued.

Inflation not deflation in previous.

They include huge numbers of part time jobs for example weekend working jobs that people take on on top of a normal 5 day week job. What some people are doing to cope with inflation is to work more shifts or two jobs. This of course is not sustainable for more than say 6 months. The job numbers are simply measuring stress of main street in dealing with deflation as their savings are getting wiped out. The real growth or inflationary effect of the numbers is zero. It may however dampen recessionary impacts in some areas. The housing sector is clearly in recession and getting ignored.

This needs to be called out as the numbers are portrayed as a means to justify more rate hikes and deepen main street recession further.

ChinaSyndrome

Please explain to me how $80M has been guaranteed. Only $15M was given. The rest is on due diligence. The total mining cost is $305M if they want it all done in two years without waiting a third year. It is helpful knowing a discount exists if the banks hold off a year when production goes on line if they want infrastructure investment support. What they have done is shown the value of commitment.

$120M is sought from banks. They either get it or not. The remainder is there for a strategic if they want in at $105M and everything gets built a year earlier. In fact the strategic is probably $75M with $30 equity raise at vastly higher share price then today.

Following that, something then needs to happen with Saltend. Tony

Well the total value of my holding is now just £4,000. Not worth selling and to be used as an additional CGT loss asset.

From Sundrum and the Greek lizard.

What was the purpose of FSDEA and M&G throwing more money in it if it was just going to sink like the Titanic.

Tariq may have a source of sponsorship that may cover some of the cost. Furthermore, if so many people were unhappy with Nanoco and really wanted change then quite a few may well attend. If nobody was interested in attending at all it would suggest to Tariq that it would be pointless pursuing change. Events that I describe actually generate a huge amount of ideas, contacts and creativity. There is a huge skill in capturing it and it can lay the foundations of something quite meaningful and everyone who attended would be a part of it.

A second mechanism is gathering evidence from Regional meetings at smaller venues where people wanted to meet and it was easier to get to and because the group is small the meeting would be shorter. Tariq could have asked for written evidence from some experts and others to stimulate an agenda for change. Evidence can be collected from many means other than a workshop. However, none of this has happened. It is a view of the future predominantly of one person that does not engage the strengths and vison of many.