Member Info for tophat

A takeover by Exxon is exceedingly unlikely.

They own Esso, Mobile Oil and have significant investments in the North Sea. The prospect of the Competition and Markets Authority allowing such a deal is almost non-existent and, even if they did, the political backlash would probably make them change their minds.

It is today. They started giving evidence at 9:45 this morning and have just resumed after a short intermission.

NG supplies the infrastructure to carry gas and electricity and the prices are set by Ofgen, the regulator. The price is also accompanied by performance targets. The wholesale prices for energy are irrelevant and the only way for them to make large profits is to exceed their targets.

machiismo

My comment was in not a political statement, just a reflection on the state of the UK planning system.

I suspect that few people familiar with the planning proceess would be surprised at the figures. Most of the delays are in council palnning departments, not to mention NIMBY's who can delay major developments by years. Just look at what happened at the proposed additional runway at Heathrow!

nomlungu

10 out of 40 have received planning permission seems to be a good result!

The planning process in the UK is notoriously, and in many cases unduly lengthy. As a Taylor Wimpy shareholder, I can’t remember a full or half year results presentation which didn’t refer in some way to the problems they face with planners.

From my own experience a friend opened a restaurant in a commercial property that had been empty for years. It took over three months for the planning department to accept the fact that a gas powered grill which had the phrase “charcoal like” in its description, didn’t actually use charcoal, despite the fact that they were supplied the manufacturers manual!

Once that issue had been resolved they objected to the “illuminated sign” which, again, took months to resolve despite the fact that, if they had actually read the submission, it was clearly not illuminated.

The planning department seemed unable to focus on more than one issue at a time!

To bring this into a wider perspective, on 25th January 2023, John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid gave a presentation to the GLIO seminar. He stated “the other key challenge in the UK... is around planning. The process in the UK is a very elongated process… If I take our transmission projects in the South West of the UK which is connecting the Hinkley C power station ... our project, end to end, is a ten year project. The first seven years of it are planning and actually we’ll build it in three”

SlickMongoose

Thank you, I miss-read the post.

BP has a mcap of about £87bn and Shell about £168 bn so hardly a quarter of the size.

How much faith can you have in someone who is out by a factor of two on a companies mcap?

denby69

Why should the price of electricity affect the NG share price?

retirment

Given that Aviva have forecast a f/y dividend for 2022 of c31p and the interim div was 10.3p it is reasonable to expect a final div of c20.7p.

The Q3 IMS stated that they expect to initiate another buyback so realistically 20.7p is the minimum to expect.

It would be very strange for them to reduce the div while instituting a buyback.

The latest analysts forecast for year end 2022 can be found on the TW website using the link below.

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/-/twdxmedia/files/head-office/corporate/consensus-estimates/2023/taylor-wimpey-forecast-analysis-120123.pdf

The analysts consensus figures. Including those for 2023, 2024 and 2025 can be found on Lloyds website using the link below.

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2022/full-year/2022-lbg-fy-consensus.pdf

Tambo210

“Why would MNG be any different?”

Because it’s not an investment bank!

Krustymegma

Why do you think that the dividend is unsustainable unless things pick up?

During the IMS Q&A on 9th November, Jenny Daly confirmed that the dividend had been stress tested to a fall in selling prices of 20% combined with a fall in sales volume of 30%.

We are nowhere near that at the moment.

lti

During the first 9 months of the year Lloyds took a provision of just over £1bn making the total they have just over £5bn against expected credit losses.

I’ve just thought that I’ve been a member of LSE for almost 14 years and have only 428 posts to my name. I feel severely under posted so this is my attempt to remedy the situation.

It was difficult to decide which board to post on until I realized that this post has nothing to do with Lloyds, banking, the economy, or anything else useful and will probably be of no interest to anyone. Coupled with the fact that the poster must be a raving loony for talking to himself on a BB made the choice of the LLOY board a no-brainer!

Now when I post this I’ll have raced to 429 posts and at that rate I’ll get to the 500 mark in about three years time!

BlindLeadBlind

“It has go to be the most disappointing boring unrewarding share OF ALL TIME”

I suspect that the former shareholders of Carillion, Interserve, Intu, Woolworth, Game, BHS… would disagree with that statement.

driftking27

“Would it not be better to consider raising dividend” No! Raising the ordinary dividend makes it harder to judge operational performance between years. It’s far better to return surplus capital by way of a special dividend making it easy to compare the ordinary dividend progression.

“..Critics say that companies that issue special dividends may be signalling that they have nothing better to do with their money..” Indeed HSBC probably don’t have anything better to do with the money. That is they will probably have difficulty finding new business within both their profitability and risk appetites. Remember that the other banks are also chasing this kind of business!

“Reinvestment even in EM would be better idea during these times”. While this may seem to be a good idea for ordinary companies it is definitely not the case for banks and insurance companies which have to hold regulatory capital against the business they write. The financial crisis showed that large amounts of formerly profitable business could turn into massive liabilities and incur huge losses if the regulators change their risk weightings.

If they can’t find the business with acceptable profit and risk margins then it is far better to return the surplus cash to shareholders by way of special dividend or buyback than build up a potential time bomb.

Carltt

“Where do lloyds think all of the rent is going to magic up from? More housing benefits and Uk taxes?”

It may surprise you that not all households are impoverished. During the Q3 2021 IMS Q&A on 27th October 2022, in a reply to a question from Raul Sinah from JP Morgan, William Chalmers pointed out that the average household income of their mortgage borrowers is £75,000. Lloyds have more than a few mortgages!

I didn't take part in the competition but have made a donation to this worthy cause.

jeanferapea

“btw - Ron De Santis is going ahead with a judicial review by jury on everything related to the covid vaccines - you don't do that if you are not sure something is corrupt”

That’s not how things work in the US!

From memory Trump supporters brought 61 court cases to overturn election results and lost all of them, even though some of the presiding judges had been appointed by trump himself.

In a number of cases the lawyers who brought the law suits have been referred to their respective bar associations because the standard of “evidence” they presented was far below that required to bring a case. If they didn’t know that then they shouldn’t be practicing law and if they did know that they were deliberately wasting the courts time and shouldn’t be practicing law!