Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The analysts consensus figures can be found using the link below.
https://www.mandg.com/~/media/Files/M/MandG-Plc/documents/investors/2023/mgplc-consensus-february-2023.pdf
Perhaps people are starting to understand what is behind the results, rather than just the headlines.
Provisions and impairments have to be taken up front but the increase in revenue from higher interest rates takes time to come through. HSBC took a non-recurring $2.4bn impairment on the sale of the French retail banking business and there was an additional $2.9bn of costs in the “Cost To Achive” program which finished in 2022 with savings of $1bn still to come in 2023.
The dividend of 32c per share was a payout ratio of 44% but they have stated that the ratio for 2023 and 2024 will be 50%. Applying the 50% ratio to the 2022 figures would have meant a div of over 36c per share.
It is unlikely that Barclays are paying JPMS for managing the buybacks. It is more likely that they will make their money by trading Barclays shares on their own behalf with the benefit of the knowledge of the trades they are about to make on behalf of Barclays. This is the arrangement that Lloyds had with Morgan Stanley for their buybacks which completed last year.
A takeover by Exxon is exceedingly unlikely.
They own Esso, Mobile Oil and have significant investments in the North Sea. The prospect of the Competition and Markets Authority allowing such a deal is almost non-existent and, even if they did, the political backlash would probably make them change their minds.
NG supplies the infrastructure to carry gas and electricity and the prices are set by Ofgen, the regulator. The price is also accompanied by performance targets. The wholesale prices for energy are irrelevant and the only way for them to make large profits is to exceed their targets.
machiismo
My comment was in not a political statement, just a reflection on the state of the UK planning system.
I suspect that few people familiar with the planning proceess would be surprised at the figures. Most of the delays are in council palnning departments, not to mention NIMBY's who can delay major developments by years. Just look at what happened at the proposed additional runway at Heathrow!
nomlungu
10 out of 40 have received planning permission seems to be a good result!
The planning process in the UK is notoriously, and in many cases unduly lengthy. As a Taylor Wimpy shareholder, I can’t remember a full or half year results presentation which didn’t refer in some way to the problems they face with planners.
From my own experience a friend opened a restaurant in a commercial property that had been empty for years. It took over three months for the planning department to accept the fact that a gas powered grill which had the phrase “charcoal like” in its description, didn’t actually use charcoal, despite the fact that they were supplied the manufacturers manual!
Once that issue had been resolved they objected to the “illuminated sign” which, again, took months to resolve despite the fact that, if they had actually read the submission, it was clearly not illuminated.
The planning department seemed unable to focus on more than one issue at a time!
To bring this into a wider perspective, on 25th January 2023, John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid gave a presentation to the GLIO seminar. He stated “the other key challenge in the UK... is around planning. The process in the UK is a very elongated process… If I take our transmission projects in the South West of the UK which is connecting the Hinkley C power station ... our project, end to end, is a ten year project. The first seven years of it are planning and actually we’ll build it in three”
SlickMongoose
Thank you, I miss-read the post.
BP has a mcap of about £87bn and Shell about £168 bn so hardly a quarter of the size.
How much faith can you have in someone who is out by a factor of two on a companies mcap?
retirment
Given that Aviva have forecast a f/y dividend for 2022 of c31p and the interim div was 10.3p it is reasonable to expect a final div of c20.7p.
The Q3 IMS stated that they expect to initiate another buyback so realistically 20.7p is the minimum to expect.
It would be very strange for them to reduce the div while instituting a buyback.
The latest analysts forecast for year end 2022 can be found on the TW website using the link below.
https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/-/twdxmedia/files/head-office/corporate/consensus-estimates/2023/taylor-wimpey-forecast-analysis-120123.pdf
The analysts consensus figures. Including those for 2023, 2024 and 2025 can be found on Lloyds website using the link below.
https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2022/full-year/2022-lbg-fy-consensus.pdf
Krustymegma
Why do you think that the dividend is unsustainable unless things pick up?
During the IMS Q&A on 9th November, Jenny Daly confirmed that the dividend had been stress tested to a fall in selling prices of 20% combined with a fall in sales volume of 30%.
We are nowhere near that at the moment.
lti
During the first 9 months of the year Lloyds took a provision of just over £1bn making the total they have just over £5bn against expected credit losses.
I’ve just thought that I’ve been a member of LSE for almost 14 years and have only 428 posts to my name. I feel severely under posted so this is my attempt to remedy the situation.
It was difficult to decide which board to post on until I realized that this post has nothing to do with Lloyds, banking, the economy, or anything else useful and will probably be of no interest to anyone. Coupled with the fact that the poster must be a raving loony for talking to himself on a BB made the choice of the LLOY board a no-brainer!
Now when I post this I’ll have raced to 429 posts and at that rate I’ll get to the 500 mark in about three years time!
BlindLeadBlind
“It has go to be the most disappointing boring unrewarding share OF ALL TIME”
I suspect that the former shareholders of Carillion, Interserve, Intu, Woolworth, Game, BHS… would disagree with that statement.