Member Info for tophat

Sorry I forgot to say that the AGM was also today so a statement on the resolution ballot will probably be issued tomorrow. However from the SP it seems unlikely that there were any surprises.

The Interim management statement was released today. Highlights • Positive progress in our first quarter • Like for like sales growth* up 5.5% • Increased volumes driving sales growth; volumes up 4.2% in Q1 • Chilled growth of 9.2% driven by value lines • Further progress in Bakery; divisional sales up 6.8% • Frozen division benefiting from change programme • Expectations for sales and profits in the half and full year remain unchanged The full statement can be found here http://www.northern-foods.co.uk/466d5e4c49b8460b8bdba8717571f1e7.htm

Technically if you sell on or after the xd date you retain the dividend (xd stands for "without dividend"). However you have to remember that the SP usually falls on the xd date to compensate the buyer for the lack of the dividend. As a theoretical example if the SP closed at 50p the day prior to the xd date, and the div is 2.95p per share, then all other things being equal, you could expect the opening SP on xd date to be (50-2.95) = 47.05p Of course "all other things" are almost never equal so the xd price could be higher or lower than this pure book value.

If we use our spare cash to buy now they could announce a RI shortly afterwards and we'd either have to find even more cash or risk dilution of our current holdings. I'd love to buy at the current SP but am hesitant to do so. I think they really want a RI but the fall in SP has got in the way.

My view is that it will continue to more or less track the FTSE 100 (even though its not one of them) as it has been for the last month or so (with a few minor deviations along the way). I bought in March as a long term invester looking for some stability and a reasonable income, in what was at the time a very uncertain marketplace. Although the SP has risen quite well since then it has also fallen back somewhat, but there hasn't been any of the more violent swings that other shares have had during the same period. During this time my opinion of NFDS hasn't changed in that it has reasonable security, reasonable income and reasonable potential for capital growth. If you're after short term gains then there are many other shares which offer greater opportunities, but if you want long term growth with reasonable income then I think this is Ok. As always DYOR and good luck!

Seems like a good strategy. I would be comfortable to double my investment in WICH as it is modest at the moment. If there is a reasonable RI then I will take up my entitlement as I feel this could go the same way as SEGRO. On that share the gain from pre RI to post trade was about 50% after taking the dilution etc into account. If the same happens then I'd be happy, if it tanked then I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. If I knew that there wasn't going to be a RI then I'd be happy to top up at the current SP but don't want to do so until the uncertainty is removed.

The most important thing is they have good cashflow which puts them in a much better position than a profit making company with cashflow problems. The only short term issue I can see is the potential breech of LVT covenants on the VBG1 and VBG2 debts which could arise if the lender asks for a revaluation of the asssociated properties. However my my figures give a shortfall of 24M but the company have (had) £32.6M in the bank so this shouldn't be too much of a problem. A RI would strengthen the balance sheet and provide a cushion against further property price falls. The next major event would be the repayment of VBG1 due in January 2010 but this would seem to be a normal refinance task which companies regularly undertake. It would be nice to have a definitive statement about an RI as I would like to top up but don'tt want to comit myself until any terms are known.

I hope you are right - best of luck to one and all.

The company have already said that they intend to maintain this years div at 4.5p. Taking the interim div of 1.55p which has already been paid then we should be looking at 2.95p at the end of August/beginning of September. This is approx 5.1% at the current SP so not bad at all. I took the plunge in March thinking that food companys tend to do better than many others in a recession. The SP has increased nicely since then but has been hovering around the 60p mark for weeks. This doesn't bother me as I'm a long term investor, not a day trader.

The drop was probably a reaction to the "headline" stats of the half yearly report. ie £76.2m loss and NAV of 0.1p per share. However a look behind these figures suggests its a good medium to long term investment Day to day operations are profitable and its tenants are unlikely to default so this shouldn't be an issue in the short to medium term. As you suggest it's the write downs which are causing the losses so when property prices start to rise I think the SP will rise even faster (at least to begin with). Also it has a number of big institutional investors on board which I think is a good sign. In fact the div may be to keep them happy even though there may be a RI. At the current price I personally think that the potential gains are worth the risk so I bought a modest number of shares yesterday. Hopefully they'll be worth a lot more in a couple of years time and in the meantime we'll have a div or two.

Although the company say they intend to pay a div it won't be announced until they have considered a possible capital issue. Seems a bit strange to pay a div if they are going to ask for money from shareholders in the form of a RI. What are your views ion this? Regards