Member Info for Toonman

The possibility of a partial annulment does concern me. It is a way in which the annulment committee could find a compromise - some gesture of justice could be provided whilst not totally trashing the previous ICSID decision. The annulment committee is still provided by ICSID and if they do trash the previous decision it will also destroy the reputation of those that made the decision and, by implication, the reputation of ICSID. Of course the previous decision was manipulated and absurdly one sided so the ICSID reputation is damaged anyway - but I am wary of trusting the process here unfortunately.....Anyhow, there is nothing any of us can do about other than wait and speculate!

Re Maestro's post at 07.37 - "as a goodwill gesture the company has offered to pledge title to some land in Indonesia that the Company had purchased in 2010. Chl purchased 300+ hectares of land on the Kalimantan coast on which they had planned to set up the port facilities for the East Kutai Coal Project." Compared to the total amount CHL invested in this project the purchase of the land is not significant. However this is a nice way of reminding the annulment committee that CHL were totally committed to the project and had invested heavily in it.

An OOC would provide a swift and hopefully satisfactory end to this saga. It would alow all shareholders to forget about CHL and move on. The alternative is another long drawn out legal action. Of course all of this assumes that some sort of justice is delivered by the annulment committee - and that is certainly not a given.

You are right oldbadger. REDDE dividends are paid in March and October.

Ford - When you refer to another panel are you referring to the panel judging the annulment? Or do you mean the panel that might sit if the annulment is granted? If the former then there are (I think) 17 grounds for annulment put forward. All need to be dealt with. If the original decision was politically motivated, as is a reasonable supposition, then the new panel will need to do a far better job of dealing with the issues than the first panel did. And they will need to produce good reasons for supporting the original decision or ICSID credibilty is blown - not that this scenario would help us much! If we get to the latter it is indeed a new ball game although I am led to believe that if the annulment is granted then the forgery argument is killed. Anyone confirm if that is correct? If so then CHL are into a new quantum case, and new evidence can be produced. As I understand it.....

And if the ICSID hierarchy are behind this why should we now expect a different outcome? It is the same hierarchy calling the shots. I hope that the hierarchy are not behind the original award. We really need the annulment committee to disown the previous judgement and declare it "unsafe".

Is the poster known as stephen1946 an insane fantacist or are his theories the real deal? I fear the former but hope for the latter! Shares are suspended so any thoughts of ramping (or deramping) are totally irrelevant. The saga of this share has an intriguing plot that's for sure.

The market always knows results before we ordinary investors do. So the good news gets priced in (hence the recent rise). There is then a sell off as profit taking occurs when the results become public. Sometimes there is then a recovery as investors move back in, hopefully it will happen here. My theory anyway...happy to hear others! This sort of thing does happen quite frequently though.

Check out the effect of the recent £/$ currency movement on the value of Shell dividends to UK shareholders. Plus price of oil hasn't backtracked...

Breaking news - Redde's non executive chairman has other non executive directorships....and...er...that's a problem innit. Non executive directors should only have one directorship coz you know they might get a bit distracted by their other non executive roles. Give me strength...!

If the company is not going to appeal either because it can't or because it won't then it has no business activity so a reverse takeover is probably the only option as others have said. In order to dilute you need a market for the shares plus someone prepared to participate in a placing. If the company has no activity whatsoever (and no market) then who will be interested in a placing? If OXS is allowed to appeal and wishes to do so then at least there is some scope for both a market and an institutional placing, although I would think with the original judgement going against the company it will be viewed as being even more risky than it ws.

I keep reading conflicting reports on this. The official RNS suggests that it is an all share offer with a cash dividend of 3p, Various stuff in the press talks about a cash offer but I can't find anything "official" that supports that.

The annual 80p divs are paid in quarterly chunks of 20p so ex div price on 14th May (Q1 ex div date) should in theory be about 20p lower than the market price immediately before it goes xd. Based on price now that would be 1520p.

It seems to have just hit 69p. No real idea why other than perhaps it is a re-rating due to positive views on the effect of the Columbus acquisition plus of course the brokers recent 87p target....On reflection it could be regarded as a share that is immune from the effects of our election (Central American/Caribbean operator based in Florida) so it is being viewed as a safe haven? Just some thoughts....

Thanks for that, I guess an adverse share move is likely over here when the share comes out of suspension. It sounds as though Ana Botin has resolved to shake things up a bit, maybe some short term(ish) pain but long term gain as you say.

Sorry I have assumed that the share will come out of suspension tomorrow in my earlier post, of course it may not happen that soon.

I think the shares are suspended now both in Span and here. Any movement showing would therefore be what occurred prior to the suspension. The news today is mixed and how the market reacts tomorrow is anybody's guess. There was clearly some leaking as when the results came out recently (which were good) the share price dropped and in fact it has walked down from somewhere near £6 to about £5. The size of the dividend cut is a bit of a shock although it is not an immediate cut. I have read that the bank intend to get to a point in future years where they distribute about 30 or 40% of profits as a cash dividend and move away from the scrip dividends. The strengthening of the capital base will be perceived as being a good thing, albeit with dilution, but as commonstock pointed out earlier there is regular dilution every quarter with the scrip dividends so its not as though the concept is anything new. As I said before I have no idea how the market will react but its not all bad news.

As is usually the case the market is looking short term and seeing debt and dilution. The positives coming from the Columbus deal are as yet unproven and regarded as "jam tomorrow". So the key issue for holders is whether you trust the board to have made a game changing acquisition, if you do then some patience may be required. For those of us who have the patience, as ecovest has pointed out, there is the sweetener that the dividend is maintained at the same level.

I am a long term holder here and like the prospects. But I woudn't get too excited about the two trades you referred to. Bentley bought because it was a condition of his employment (bit unlucky with the timing imo) and the large trade after close of play was an uncrossing trade.

You can't buy Afferro shares at any price as the company has now been taken over and delisted.