Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Fastfood,

Just finished a Chicken Swarma in Vadodara - it was fab. Anyway - I can remember very well. I also remember when we were in the exclusivity period - we still needed 90M for the development - market cap was about 25-30m if I remember correctly - and some people on this board were saying we going to get the 90M for farming out 25%. I remember Ducati was on the board at that time and i stated that the share count would treble in order to raise the funds - it seemed everyone else thought I was talking rubbish.

Things don't look as rosy as they did back then and the market agrees.

Juxapose,

In your opinion it is not applicable. I agree that there appears to be a disconnect between the market CAP and the Intrinsic worth. But there's a lot of truth in the saying that its only worth what someone is prepared to pay.

Harold - No I didn't say that at all - to clarify the boy wants 43 large slices of PIZZA. If he can buy 8 slices of PIZZA for 8 pounds - why would he pay 43 pounds for the same PIZZA just because you've sliced it into 43 pieces - simples.

Anyway - I think we have flogged this horse to death - we'll have to agree to disagree.

Juxapose,

"Why waste time discussing what is NOT being proposed? Of far more interest would be to discuss possible participants and terms .........."

That's what I thought I was doing but no one seems to understand the calculation - maybe I need to do my Pizza analogy -

Ok - you have a PIZZA with 8 slices and you want to swap it for a bicycle - the boy that owns the bicycle wants 43 slices of PIZZA to make the swap (8 + 35). You don't have the 35 slices so you have to borrow the money off your mum to buy the additional 35 slices of PIZZA ( by farm out, not equity raise - because your a boy and your not allowed to do and equity raise). What percentage of your Bicycle does your mum own ? - simples.

Harold,

I wont bother getting into the calculation to try to work out what 30% of the asset might be worth. That's advanced mathematics.

harold ,

I assume that you cannot read as well as add up.

E_AL,

No one "in the know" is loading up on the cheap or otherwise the SP would be moving sharply up.

Let me write slowly so Harold & Oiler87 can follow - Here goes - "Trying to work out the possible terms of a farm out. Imagine you had to raise the funds by issuing additional shares" - are you with me Harold & Oiler so far - good. "440m shares at 8p each would raise about 35M, this would approximate to existing shareholders holding about 30% of shares or 30% of the asset after a farm out"

sorry 35m

Oiler87,

Join Harel in the corner - no one said that they were going to issue 440m shares to raise 31M pounds.

Harel,

Get your battery charger and charge up the Old Texas Instrument and type in this:

440,000,000 x 0.8p = (let me know the answer)

Then get back to the corner and put your pointy hat on.

Harel - surely if you issue a trillion shares at 1 pound each - the market cap would then be 1 trillion pounds + 8m. Are you stupid or what ?

The SP / Market Cap last time round before the Junior Loan Notes & Funding package was announced turned out to be a good indicator of the Shareholder Dilution required to get the funding.

I believe the current Market Cap / SP is also an indicator of the potential dilution required to get a funding package in place whether by farmout or equity raise to fund this year drilling program.

Assuming they need to Raise GBP 35M at an SP of 8p . This equates to an additional 440M shares.

Lets also assume that warrants get renegotiated and exercised - this would mean that the potential share count of existing share holders would be about 177M. i.e. current shareholders would retain about 30% of the asset whether by farmout or dilution after a new funding package.

Then assume oil in the ground is worth $3, $4 or $5 / barrel and then assume they prove up 50M barrels, 100M barrels or 250M Barrels. This would indicate a potential SP of:

50M Barrels 20-33p per share
100M barrels 40 -66p per share
250M Barrels 100 - 160p per share

Oiler87,

How do you square graham heaths comments on balance sheet in 28th november presentation / interview with Proactive Investor with your statement on remaining cash?

Harel,

From recollection - I3E stated that they had funding until the back-end of this year and not next year. This would be to pay Admin and Finance charges and pretty much nothing else.

Anxdd,

Well I hope you don't burn your toast.

Amxdd,

"Good article, some times people need to look at the big picture and should follow the people with more resources and intelligence."

90% of funds don't beat the market (index). Perhaps you would be kind enough to share more of your wisdom and explain the big picture.

Oiler87 & Austin14,

"I apologise to anyone if that appears to show optimism - that appears to offend some on here." - If you are referring to me then I can confirm that I am not offended - it is your right to be positive or negative. I view your last postsas taking a glass half full approach. I personally don't agree with all your assumptions - yes deferred payments and Bybrooks investments indicate confidence in the Company and would not have been made without due diligence by "Industry Insiders". However, both investments were committed to prior to the full drill results. The latest Bybrook investment was strange i.e taking up the placement at 37p when the SP at the time was considerably less. It is possible however, that they were contractually commited to take up the placing - I don't have the answer to that definitively but you would want to know the answer before reading to much into it

With regards to "£132k buy shows someone knows something and not to forget the 15x 50,000." For every buy there's a sell - the share is bouncing off all time lows relative to the SP over the last year - so your take on this appear to be very optimistic.

I'm not offended by people taking an optimistic view as I've said - do take offence (though not personally offended) to people deliberately trying to mislead others including myself for personal gain.

GGG,

I agree - if you're in I3E at the current levels then things would look a little more positive than those of us that have been holders since before the drilling started. I'm in a similar boat to you only with a higher average. I would still be hopeful that there is a profit to be made at 25p but it all depends on what the Management are able to deliver.

The psychology of this board is interesting - you can post something that is factually correct, balanced but is not bullish and you get criticized and/ or no recommendations. On the other hand you can post something bullish with outdated or incorrect information and the posts gets recommended. Some people only want to hear good news / points of view regardless of the actual situation.

Austin,

I agree with you but would add that whilst Serenity was definitely good news -
was it that much better than was expected /hoped for. The possible extension of Tain was already known and it clearly was not sufficiently good news for the market to offset the failure of Liberator to support a Senior Funding package and a Phase 1 development this year.

so in short - not a lot to shout about at the moment in my opinion.

Austin,

Fair question - when I first invested a year or more ago - I was very positive. If you were to go back you will see that I was pulled up by a couple of posters for sharing my thoughts on the potential share price which I though at the time could be a 10 bagger from where we were at. I still think that the Market Cap has the potential to be a 10 bagger or more from where we are at now - unfortunately the share count is now over a 100m and up to 177m if warrants are exercised. This number is likely to increase or alternatively our share of the equity decrease due to a farm out in order to develop the assets. So whilst I think the overall picture has improved - on a per share basis things are not as rosy as they were 1 year back.

I would also refer you to the recent interview on Proactive Investor, where the analyst basically said he thought there was till significant potential (not without risk) but he also though the news flow has been handled poorly by Management - I would agree with pretty much everything he said.

If you look back at the news flow - pretty much every RNS has been below expectation or in the rare cases per expectation. I think it is the reason why the initial equity raise was at 37p when only weeks earlier we were at 50p or more. Also part of the story which is why the SP was higher was that we were going to have a phase 1 development this year that would unlock the huge potential - this is not going to happen and instead we are left pondering further funding that is obviously going to have a further negative impact on most shareholders on per share basis.