Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Fastfood,

Interesting article on the top 5 uses of Hydrocarbons to help you refine your hypothesis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxjxGY3xS7s&utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notification&utm_campaign=vwo_notification_1614374388&_p_c=1

Fastfood,

Why are you being so conservative. I've taken Mirabauds calculation and plugged in 14,000 boed. Its spits out a valuation of $108m everthing else being equal. This still undervalues I3E in my opinion as the recent rise in the POO has not been fully reflected in the calculation.

That said - I'm not 100% sure of Mirabauds model after have looked at I3E's last RNS.

Not sure what you mean - maintenance capex is required to hold the production steady and replace production declines so I think it should be included in the costs.

thanks - using Mirabauds spread sheet - I calculate break even at about $33 Brent i.e. covering:

1) G&A
2) Interest
3) Maintenance Capex & Abandenment

but excluding
1) Capex
2) Dividend

piohc1,

My friend - I try no to bullsh_it. When I present an opinion - I try to back it up with facts, figures and sources. I may have made some mistakes - but they are honest mistakes.

This does not seem to be the case with the example I have highlighted below. I point it out to make fellow posters aware so thet they can make a more informed judgement on any future posts.

GGG,

I have alluded to my thoughts previously but no one took the bait and challenged me. I dont want to say just yet and lead you to a conclusion - I wanted to hear your thoughts.

First off and I may be showing my ignorance - what is B/E ?

Secondly - I was looking for a much simpler response. Dividends have been the subject of much discussion the last day or so We have been guided by Mirabaud what they are likely to be in based on FCF. We have not been given FCF by I3E but they did provide Forecast Operational Income for 2021. By comparing the two - what do you see?

Piohc1,

How do you explain your post on the 24th - copied below for reference. In another you say way oversold as it drops from CAD 40 to 20

"Canadian investors must know what I3E worth at that production scale. It should continue to rise at TSX"

looks like the SP is taking a little breather. Encouraging that the slight sell off is on relatively low volume with small value trades . Looks like some small PI's booking profit. The bigger SH's standing firm. So far at least !

I trust everyone has taken note of the action on the TSX. I wonder who were the numpties that bought in at CAD 0.40. Good to see that not every one is "in the know"

GGG,

If you have the time - take a look at the November Mirabaud report and check out the numbers for 2021 (Operating Income, Free Cash Flow, price assumptions for Oil & Gas)

Compare against the Operating Income from I3E's last RNS - they didnt report forcast FCF. Let me know what you think.

As moses points out TSX is the exchange, ITE is the I3E Canadian ticker.

Google ITE TSX share price

I had cheese on crumpits this morning.

Opening on the AIM and TSX were entirely predictable - certainly what I was expecting. Good to see I3E heading into a strong close. Also volume encouraging and should have gone someway to rinse out short term holders / traders.

“Kane. At one Point for 20 mins this was trading at 30 cent !! 200% up. This is Serious Stuff. Tony will be coughing up his cornflakes when this opens.”

Fastfood,

You were right about the Oil Price but wrong about ITE - are you willing to eat a bit of humble pie?

Maestrol,

My screen is showing I3E Canada just opened down 42% - surprise, surprise - not !

Maestrol,

I agree - I3E is cheap but the market doesnt yet think it is as cheap as you think it is. Also Barrels in the ground are important but currently are valued quite cheaply and quite rightly not as valuable as flowing barrels. This is why the house brokers currently assign little to no value to them in current forecasts.

Just look at Falkland Oil.

Maestro,

Thank you - I have looked at all of them and compared metrics. For example:

In Play Oil:

Market Cap UKP 14.4M
Production 5100 boepd (Gas 1700 boepd)
Revenue UKP 25M
Net Debt UKP 37M

Maestro,

Which Canadian peers are you talking about and what metric are you using to value them ? Have you accounted for the fact the most of the peers identified recently on the various forums produce a higher percentage of Oil as a proportion of the boe mix ?

Maybe I have to correct the heading to the above. My perspective is as a LTH, sitting on a loss and having seen many of the previous plans and Projections not coming to fruition.

Of course for any of the new shareholders since the placing (which are the vast majority of current shareholders) - the y are sitting on a significant profit and naturally will have a much more positive view on delivery and the BOD.

That said any LTH such as myself who have averaged down - still have reason to be more positive .

Snott - good earlier post on the SP drivers. I agree that I3E should rerate over time with more news and increasing confidence in the BOD. I dont think that the TSX will have an impact on the price here. My bet is that later on today - some of the investors there will see the price here, say oh f_ck and the price will drift down to close the gap here. My bet would be a close less than CAD 0.20

JAdam,

I have edited the heading to reflect how I see things. All sounds good but trust wont be fully returned until they actually deliver.

Agree with 90% of your post with a question mark over whether FCF has actually "exceeded expectation". FCF has clearly increased - but this is all down to the POO. Has it increase as much as it should have based on the POO - I'm not sure - have you compared the EBITDA numbers in the Maribaud report to the earnings number in the RNS.

Some may think that this is unimportant but in my view it is very important. Management must have a handle on the numbers so Investors can have confidence in Projections. Im not saying that they are wrong - im just looking into why the FCF is not quite as high as I had expected.

Snott,

The premise of your post is questionable imo - what do you think is more likely to happen by the end of the day:

1) I3E to rise up and close the gap on I3E Canada

or

2) ITE Canada to fall on opening and close the gap on I3E.

I dont want to tempt fate - but I would bet my house on option 2. Any investor here who have taken the trouble to keep an eye on the TSX will have noted that I3E has moved up rapidly to a premium of 20% plus over the AIM several times only to have fallen back to parity the a day or so later. Is this time any different?