Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Mr Ticktock,

Dont do it !! Take a look at this:

https://ceo.ca/@Drjimjones/10-bagger-in-oil-youve-never-heard-of-i3-energy

When I say I have no idea on oil - I mean I dont know and you dont know ! However, even at WTI $40 and Gas $2.5 - they are producing meaningful cash flows and can afford to pay out a small dividend - so there is a lot of cushion on the downside. At $50 WTI - I3E is quite healthy and at $60 and more - happy days. Add in an additional 1000 bopd and 1000 boepd of Gas which is very doable from what were hearing then the SP could more than double from where we are now without breaking a sweat.

Fastfood,

No idea on Oil - my stance has not really changed. I was on Oilprice.com to see the latest opinions and again another article on the increasing pace of EV's.

I'm more inclined to be forecasting a potential target price for I3E which I will do after we get the next Company update. Potentially the news could be quite material in terms of impact on the SP. My only caveat is that from our seat - things seem to be unfolding more slowly that we would like.

Aside from Serenity which will happen when it happens - we are almost certain to get some transformative news on drilling programs / reserves in the not to distant future if not a material aquisition.

Well they have a 10 year lease on their new offices to fund along with Sam Moodeys wages and bonuses.

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/south-west/new-office-for-oil-and-gas-exploration-firm

I was in this about two and a half years ago until I came to the conclusion that my money would be better elsewhere. RHK don't seem to be any closer to 1st oil than they were two years ago. I was not overly optimistic about the arbitration outcome either - RKH were aware of the Italians stance on offshore drilling before they bought the assets. I hope small share holders see a return here both with Sealion and the Court Case.

GLA

Fastfood,

So your doubling down now - I'm still waiting for you $64 call to come right. Brent $63.65 as we speak.

Well i'm sure most here would appreciate if you went and pump RECAF on a RECAF board and go attend to your hedges elswhere.

on an earlier post you said you wont post anymore about Recaf here?

thanks Doc. Not trying to catch you out - but the comment below ref WCS did not seem to tally with what i'm seeing especially of late. Obviously with Clearwater becoming a topic of conversation - some people including myself are starting to pay bit more attention to WCS. I went back from today and looked at prices every two months all the way back to May last year (prices from oilprice.com):

-------------WTI--------WCS------Delta
May 25---$33.25----$26.75----$6.50
Jul 24---$33.25----$26.75----$7.99
Sep 25---$40.25----$31.75----$8.50
Nov 24---$44.91----$34.01----$10.90
Jan 25---$52.77----$39.22----$13.55
Mar 25---$58.58----$47.41----$11.47
Apr 03 ---$61.45----$48.86----$12.59

Just looking at the Data Set above - you would say that the differential with the exception Jan 25 is the largest in a year . Maybe ill go back a further year. I dont think there is any additional pipeline capacity in the next 6-12 months. Where do you see the differential over the next 6-12 months and whats going to drive it.

regards

Doc,

What's the reason for WCS moving in the opposite direction to WTI at the moment.

You also recently mentioned an LNG project in Canada as a catalyst for improved gas prices - as far as I can see, this project is 2-3 years away from producing. Is this correct and if so what are the catalysts for gas prices now?

regards

If you go back to Docs post just after the his call with I3E - I seem to recall him saying that I3E may pursue a US listing once the market cap exceeds $100m. As far as Reddit goes - It would be good to see some new money and a bit more liquidity - i'm not sure about the volatility that Reddit brings though - that wouldn't do much for I3E.

Nice to see WTI rising though interestingly WCS seems to be moving in the opposite direction at the moment- I think this is the applicable benchmarks for a lot of the oil out of clearwater. Anyway - lets see what next week brings.

well I have to say, I agree with Stevo.

The only clear winners here are the the Lawyers and the CEO - but im sure the CEO is grateful.

I see Barnyards active again on the Rockhopper BB actually contributing. I can only guess that he has a much more significant holding there than here.

I was a holder there a few years ago as well as here - I recall one poster saying that RKH was the best risk reward play on the AIM. I said then that this was crap and that I3E was much better - the poster dismissed this like a sh_t on a shoe. All things considered, he cannot be laughing now.

Despite Barnyards apparent contempt for us "uniformed", I think he monitors the board for the same reason some of us do - to dig up the occasional gold nugget from the piles of "B_ll ****". Well I think he is in debt to this board and owes it one or two insights.

Come on Barnyards - pay up !!

GGG,

I agree - we appear to be valued at around 3.2 x estimated FCF ($60.5 WTI & $2.6 Gas).

Assuming everything stays the same (valuation multiple & POO) except adding 500 boepd for Noel and 1000 bopd for Clearwater - which seems very doable:

That would put us on about 14p. Increase the valuation multiple very modestly to x4 and that would put i3e on 17p.

Not much new in the update from WHI. The numbers though for estimated CF "from the field" seem completely out of whack with the numbers we've been talking about. I'm going to assume they have screwded up the calculation.

Forrest,

I'm not sure what was going on with your Utility shares - it does not sound like your normal share buy back. I had some BP shares a while back and at the time they were buying back shares every month. Had no impact on the number of shares I held. I would not be surprised to see I3E buying back some shortly (at least a small amount).
Would not expect it to be too significant since they have high impact options to spend the cash on such as aquisitions / drilling new wells.

JAdam,

ok well that's clear. I dont suppose you got any clarity on whether the dividend was 20% of FCF or "at least 20%" which could mean anywhere between 20-30%.

regards

Forrest,

Doc is referring to "share buy backs" whereby I3E can purchase its own shares on the open market and then cancel them. This reduces the total number of shares in issue and thus increases the % holding of the remaining shareholders i.e. instead of the pizza being split into 700m pieces, its say cut into 690m pieces with each piece being slightly bigger (assuming the Company buy back 10m shares and cancel them). I think I3E already have SH approval to buy upto 10% of its own shares.

The process is no different from PI's buying shares on the open market and the Company is buying from whoever is selling whether it be PI's or institutional investors - nothing compulsory about it.

Jolly - thank you.

well if you had as many shares as GGG - you'd be pretty stoked about the dividend.

In fact the dividends will pay for a couple of beers for me also. In addition, the 6% dividend is going to attract some serious investors and help underpin the SP.

Jolly,

Good news if its true - do you have a source for this?

Doc,

There are few assumptions in your analysis - including you dont know exactly what period the FCF relates to. This is quite important since as you mention - Oil prices have moved significantly over the last couple of months. Based on the numbers i'm going to say that its based on this quarter ending (31st March) during which period WTI has averaged approximately $58.5.