Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Jukey,

I'm not 100% but I dont think its correct, from memory the potential terms were never announced. There was plenty of rumour and much of it from this BB but nothing concrete. I seem to recall a lot of the speculation here being completely unrealistic i.e. claims that were were going to farm-out 25% for $50m when our market CAP was only $30m say. After years of not getting it done - I think the talk / rumour now is a bit more measured.

It is a decent reference but I think you need to dig into it deeper to make a fairer comparison :

1) The debt is significant - if it had a lower level like i3e it would undoubtedly have a significantly higher market cap.
Look at HUR - so you would need to make an adjustment for this.

2) The difference in production/ production profile is significant also - I bet if you run the numbers, the difference in revenues would be much higher than you think - maybe $70m or more so an adjustment required here

3) Then you need to look at costs - I'm going to guess and say that i3e has higher G&A and opex costs so you would need to adjust for this.

A big plus for i3e which is not currently priced properly in i3e's SP is Serenity. From the Webcast yesterday:

1) Serenity could flow at 35,000 bopd or more - thats huge as its just about all oil.
2) They expect to retain a significant portion and retain operatorship. My previous assumption was we would keep +/- 30%. It sounds like it could be 50% or more!

Plug the Serenity numbers into your spreadsheet and the SP is multiples of where it is now and that doesnt even account for Clearwater and Simonette.

Thanks Cenkman,

This was from i3e's recent update:

"The three wells were brought back on-line in sequence and the initial 14-day production averaged approximately 730 boepd comprised of field estimate sales equalling 1.7 mmscfd, 423 bbl/d of natural gas liquids, 26 bbl/d of oil from South Simonette, meeting i3's prognosis of circa 720 boepd."

I was initially disappointed to see the amount of NGL's because historically i3e's NGL's have sold on aggregate at around 35-40% of WTI - the selling price is dependent on the actual product / chemistry. However, after doing a little more research - the NGL's above are from the Wapiti / Lower Montney formation and are likely to be closer to Condensate in chemistry and so may well attract premium pricing - so quite a material addition to FCF.

It is good comparison and another data point but always worth crunching the numbers to make proper adjustments:

23336/19000 = 23% more production.

But more importantly:

23,336 x 32% = 7467 bopd Oil / Condensate (Pipestone)
19,000 x20% = 3800 bopd light Oil (i3e)

7467/3800 = 96% more oil

Given that Oil is more than twice the price of Gas on a boe basis - then I would expect Pipestone to be generating more revenue and also respond more positively to the increase in the price of oil.

the other thing of note is the words Montney and Condensate - Condensate I think sells at a slight premium to Oil I think so it would be interesting to know how much of the 32% is Condensate.

Cenkman,

Is there a question or comment to me or are you just pointing out a potential investment.

Doorstop,

How did the webinar go - did they present well or did they get a bit of a hammering with the questions.

1) Did they talk about the recent drill results at Pembrina or Wapiti ?

2) Did they say anymore about the capital program they are working on for the 2022 drilling or anything about what they plan for the remainder of this year ?

hopefully they will post the link to the recorded event shortly

was not able to log in to the audio - had some issues with the connection - how did it go.

looked like there was someone on the line (Barry Kauffer) giving Graham stick with the questions

Comparing value to peers and why I have just looked at the last 6 months

1) If I’d compared to Tamarack Valley or any other highly leveraged Canadian play and looked at the last 12 months or longer - the comparison is likely to be not that favourable - why - because Companies like Tamarack had massive debt, oil at $20 and were priced for bankruptcy.

Naturally these Companies have repriced disproportionately once oil prices improved and bankruptcy was now off the table.

This was never the case with I3E - they bought bottom of the cycle and were financed to get them through the blip of $20 oil.

2) Taking account of the above and also the raise - 6 months looked like a decent period to evaluate performance - a longer period and I don’t think it would have been apples with apples with Tamarack.

Why look at returns last over last 6 months and not 12 months and longer - good question.

1) I wanted to compare apples with apples which I will explain further in part two with respect to other Canadian Companies.

2) I wanted to look at the performance post raise which has been questioned here.

3) why not 5 years - I3E has a short history so if you go back 5 years your comparing an exploration company with a production company.

4) I don’t know whether anyone here recalls a podcast about 18 months ago where Graham quite candidly discussed the poor share price performance and the equity raise at 5p - I’m paraphrasing his comments in inverted comments and it went something like this:

“ you wake up one morning and look at your investments and have to evaluate the investment propersition in front of you as it stands today - I.e with the SP as it is today with the potential I3E has going forward - you cannot look backwards”

He also commented that prior i3e’s fortunes were reliant on a success at Liberator which as we all know was a failure.

These are my comments now - anyone investing back then should have known that investing in a Junior exploration company is a risky proposition and depends upon success at the drill bit.

5) it’s not completely accurate that PI’s have done badly:

A) anyone who invested back then and did not average down for sure suffered devastating losses but that’s not everyone. it’s unfortunate but it’s the chance you take betting on a Junior Oil explorer.

B) there are a few fortunate PI’s that have bought in millions of shares at 5p such as yourself and are sitting with a very healthy profits even accounting for your earlier losses no to dissimilar to some institutions.

3) there are other PI’s such as myself who have averaged down and are sitting with moderate profits and I’m sure all combinations of the 3 above.

PI’s investing in I3E in the last year to 18 months have done pretty well and the investment proposition looking forward looks pretty good.

Apologies for typo’s - I’m on my iPhone.

Cenkmen,

Graham’s maths is fine - 750m shares prior to Cenovus (approx from memory - don’t shoot me if I’m 20-30m out). 1.1B after. ie existing shareholdes own approximately 750/1100 i.e. about 2/3 of the new company (1/3 dilution for existing holders)

With regards to quarterly reporting - in the past people refered to a quarterly report as per Canadian a listed Company which is a full 30-40 page report with detail financials ver similar to our interim report. What we have is a brief 1 page update - which if you look back we have got almost every month - some months two updates.

Perhaps a misunderstanding between updates v report.

fairdealer - fair point

Jim Slater wrote several books with his investment philosophies and Mark Slater edited them so he is fully familiar with the methods:

Mark Slater co-founded Slater Investments in 1994 with Ralph Baber. ... In 1992, Mark helped research and edit a best-selling investment book “The Zulu Principle” for his father, Jim Slater, which focuses on identifying small to medium-sized growth companies...............

Fairdealer -

I suspect he's done it because he gets a round of applause there but pelted with rotten tomatoes here. I'm not too interested to be honest the why but more the content and whether it holds any merit.

Anyway someone here has highlighted that "The Abbot" is actually Ronbruce/Jdams - so the question could be asked here.

Just to clarify my thoughts on it - Jim Slater had a series of screens to filter out companies worthy of further study / buying. One of them was looking for Companies with recent significant insider buying - I think its fair to say that i3e would fail that screen.

Interestingly though - Mark Slater (son of Jim) undoubtedly uses the same screens and is a Major Holder of i3e through his funds - so its not a fatal failing !

A really good video by from Eric Nuttall on his twitter feed on oil / Oil Companies - worth a watch. Couple of takeaways:

1) Oil Demand is set to grow for the next 10-15 year (his opinion based on the research he is following which he highlights)
2) Price of Oil will likely rise past peak demand.
3) Oil Companies a great place to invest over the next 5 years or so
4) Oil Companies cheaper now than they were a year ago (relative to earnings)

All in his opinion of course - but he does happen to be head of Portfolio Management at Ninepoint Capital which is the largest energy fund in Canada.

Last point is interesting - how can shares be cheaper now than they were a year ago ?? The only explanation I have is that they have not kept pace with the price of Oil - some will have , some will have raced ahead but the average company in his investment universe has failed to do this.

I highlighted a Company yesterday - Tamarack Oil and Gas - its one Ninepoint Capitals largest holding so its rated pretty highly by Eric Nuttall. The performance over the last 6 months has been not to dissimilar to i3e as I pointed out so no red flags there.

Another Company that I did track 12 months ago for a very short period was Pharos Energy - the reason I did so was because it appeared on a list of about 12-15 companies that Tennyson had listed in its report as within the peer group and it had similar production at the time. It has actually fallen about 25% over the last 6 months. I don't happen to think it is a good bench mark now because of the locations it operates in, but it highlights that not every Company has risen and the importance of doing like for like comparisons if you want to understand whats going on.

When I hear some on here saying the performance of i3e has been poor or poorer than other companies - who are they talking about and are they comparing apples with apples or apples with turnips ?

I3e's performance has been pretty decent over the last year or so and I think it is well set to continue if not improve.

GLA

Fellows - a bit touchy this morning are we not !

1) Skin in the game has certainly been mentioned in the last few days - so it seemed topical - no ulterior motives and it quoted some numbers which earlier on here no one did. The post was not directed at anyone in particular by the way.

2) Joesoap just questioned the accuracy of the post and provided a link - I took a quick look at Majids purchase and it appears to me that he has provided the correct number for him at least - please feel free to correct any of |"The Abbots" inaccuracies.

3) "The Abbot" = JAdam = Ronbruce - really are you sure - I dont know. As just about everyone on here should know - I don't play such games - I post under my own name !

4) Did GGG just let slip - refer to Joe Soaps post at 11:34 :

"Tony must have had a reason to copy it over, it pre-dated my missive below by some 20mins so was not done to rebut that."

The only post 20 mimutes earlier on my Computer is from GGG GGG = Joesoap Busted ?

5) I did not say that I agreed with the post (or disagreed for that matter) but it does highlight that not everyone shares the same opinion. What some people missed is that "The Abbot" also conditioned his remarks by saying ".......so perhaps it may not be the level some want to see ...". Showing a bit more balance than some here I would dare to say !

take a chill pill guys and sit down !

a message from the The Abbot on ADVFN:

"FFS can someone tell those so called researched posters on the LSE forum when they keep going on about how the directors don't have any skin in the game that perhaps someone should remind them that of Graham Heaths 6.82 million shares he holds in the company or the last purchase he made of 316,000 shares at 37.03p for £117,000 or the 7.25 million shares held by Neil Carson with two market purchases at 36.9p and 37.04p or the shares purchased by Majid at 36.94p for £53K. Now yes Neil has a lot through exercising of options and Majid doesn't own many shares compared to his salary, however Graham has a lot of skin in the game, pretty much all his own cash, so perhaps it may not be the level some want to see but there are a number that need to do their research. They obviously haven't got a clue at how to do even the most basic of searches."

Pirate ,

I’ll do it on the CEO channel - are you pirate there?

Just to address the comment on questions taken / answered in the podcast - I asked about 4 questions - 2 were answered including the one on debt v equity. I already new the answer as I had asked previously but wanted to posters to hear direct from iE3.

I also complained that a couple of questions went unanswered but was told there were about 130 people on the podcast and they were unable to get to all the questions - fair enough - podcast went on for 1 hour 50 minutes.

I also know that on a previous Q/A where SH were invited to post in questions and the answers would be posted on the website - only me and one person appeared to post in questions - about 5 of mine were answered word for word and one question from another poster. So it appears that PI’s here are better at complaining here than emailing in questions!

I’m not directing the comment at you Pirate but generally to all here.

Do you have Graham’s email - ask him the question.
Alterantively - tell me what you want to ask and I’ll send him the question - make sure it’s properly formulated ie if your saying they are overpaid -
Provide the reference to back up the claim.

Pirate ,

I don’t disagree with most of your comments - quite a few have said similar and I was also disappointed that PI’s could not get in on the raise. In the end it didn’t matter as if your were patient and applied GGG’s principles - you would have got in lower than the II’s. It’s not the point I know - we should have had a similar opportunity but you have to be pragmatic also - if you need to raise $50m and you know PI’s are only going to stump up $2m then……you would do the same.

Again - it serves no use complaining here - get in their ear and see whether you can influence future outcomes!

Jozo/Austin,

The SP has not risen as quickly as some of us would have thought maybe 6 months ago - but you have to take account of what has happened in the last 6 months which includes the raise but also Serenity pushed back, earnings reports ,ESG etc.

Having said that the rise over the last 12 months has been very good. Take a look at the 6 month and 12
Month charts - they look great and no reason the trend shouldn’t continue - if it doubles again in 12 months - who here wouldn’t be happy.

If your saying it hasn’t risen as much as it should have done - compared to what? I have been using KELT as a bench mark but I’ve been told by someone more clued up than me that Tamarack Valley is a much more similar company based on asset type.

I compared the 6 months charts for both Tamarack and I3E and there’s not much in it. Tamarack is sitting at 60% rise over the period v I3E at approximately 50%.

DYOR - take in all the data point and make your own mind up. I’m still bullish on i3e !