Member Info for tonynorstrom1

He comments on Companies that listeners phone in or email about - it does not have to be one of the Companies he owns or follows.

I was thinking of forming a PR Committee to generate coordinated PR for i3e - was looking for enthusiastic, like minded investors with a like minded attitude - just scratched your name off the list !

Goodness me its hard to generate any positive momentum when even i3e's own shareholders talk down the stock ! If your wondering why Investors are a little apathetic - just re-read a couple of your past posts!

A couple of comments on the last couple of posts:

Whether Eric Nuttall would be interested in buying i3e for his fund - no one here knows, but it doesn't matter - he comments on many company's that are not part of his fund, regardless it would be interesting to hear his thoughts.

"I think he would be put off by the N Sea connection, as he is focussed on the Canada oil industry pure and simple." - You don't know that - whilst its true that his primary focus Canada, its not his exclusive focus - one of his holdings is Enerplus which has extensive assets in the US.

He has expressed a preference for Companies returning capital via share buy backs and dividends mainly because he thinks these will generate superior shareholder gains partly by SP appreciation. I don't think he is against companies that don't if he thinks the SP has a chance of doubling or tripling or more without buybacks or dividends. That's ignoring the fact that some of the Companies in his fund are still not paying a dividend or buying back shares. i3e will have paid 3 dividends by the time some of the companies in his portfolio pay their first.

Just listened to the latest episode of Market call - Eric Nuttall seems to be featured at least a couple of times a month running his rule over various Canadian Oil Plays. Lots of good information on valuations, direction of the market and the price of oil. For anyone that doesn't know - Eric Nuttall is head of investment and Senior Partner of Nine Point Capital which is the largest Energy Fund in Canada - so he's a mover and shaker !

I think he has mentioned i3e only once and that was to say the Company was too small for him to follow - since that comment i3e has doubled production and added Cenovus Assets. We also hopefully have some big news coming in the next week or so.

The host is always asking listeners to email or call in questions for Eric to answer. I would encourage any shareholders here to email in a question about i3e and what he thinks - lets see if we can help generate some momentum. I would include your location in the email (UK or wherever) - I think they might respond quite positively if they are attracting overseas listeners - get those emails in!

Last call (link below) is worth a listen.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/full-episode-market-call-for-friday-december-3-2021~2330691

Email: marketcall@bnnbloomberg.ca

Hey and any one called OIL_INVETOR - I have a hard time taking seriously !!

Opex numbers - they have repeatedly published - ditto transportation and processing - so I think you have a pretty good read to put in a model. Royalties - there are historical numbers plus what other Canadian Producers pay so no great secret there either.

Clearly i3e have the best numbers - but the're not always going to tell you what they are. Do you think they are going to tell you their top end projection - or are they going to throw out a number that has a bit of conservatism in it ?

You mention gas but oil and NGL's make up nearly 2/3 of revenue. My projection has them struggling to meet their NOI projection - however, a small rise in gas and oil price will see them meet or beat their number - simples !

I dont normally like repeating myself - but i'll make an exception:

"If you had plugged current prices into a spread sheet - you would know you are talking rubbish. I can only assume that you have not done this so don't know you are talking rubbish !"

Have you done it ?

Oil_invetor,

If you had plugged current prices into a spread sheet - you would know you are talking rubbish. I can only assume that you have not done this so don't know you are talking rubbish !

Alberta gas prices are disconnected from world prices and if you pull up a chart have only been at the $5 level for a very brief period. Oil & Gas Prices undoubtedly has had some impact on the SP but I dont think the Oil Price has to be too much higher than it is now to achieve the NOI projections.

"Very Nice Read" - just read a book that was actually recommended to me by an Oil Industry Executive - "The Psychology of Money" - by Morgan Housel. A very good read, not to heavy and lots of lessons for the ordinary investor.

One of the Chapters that caught my eye was Chapter 17 - "The Seduction of Pessimism". The title of the Chapter is underscored with "Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you - It sounds smarter. Its intellectually captivating, and its paid more attention than optimism, which is often viewed as being oblivious to risk"

What i3e have done in Canada is just spectacular - the numbers are just great and the acreage and potential going forward are just phenomenal. Looking at the business model - they are focused on a large number of low decline, low cost wells - so development does not attract the same level of attention as perhaps a 800mbbl field in the north sea. The carbon intensity of their wells is substantially lower than Oil Sands, also the unit cost of production is low so I think their in the sweet spot in Canada with great growth prospects.

Looking at the business as a whole including the UK - the numbers are still compelling - in terms of earnings multiples - I3e is still one of the cheapest Companies around. I3e have lots of optionality with Serenity including walking away if the numbers don't stack up. I think the numbers do stack up and I don't think the UK is walking away from the North Sea any time soon. Hydrocarbon demand is still increasing and I think it will become increasingly obvious that to shut down the North Sea losing jobs and tax revenue and yet continue to import Oil just does not make any sense - how is Jimmy Cranky going to explain that !

https://twitter.com/i3energy/status/1465690829100515341?s=21

Pretty good article posted by I3E on Twitter a short while ago.

I just took another look at KELT - similar production and production mix as I3E but valued at CAD883m (£510m) !!!

Should I3E be as highly rated as KELT - probably not - should we be valued at less than a 1/4 of KELT - definitely not !!!

Rerate has to happen - just need the good news to continue.

Freshair,

A post on this board is public. An email direct between you and I3E is private - you’ve not copied
Anyone on your email and he’s not copied anyone on the response except perhaps the Nomad. I3e are very much allowed to correspond privately with Investors - what there not allowed to do is disclose material non public information in a private setting. Your mixing up private and confidential (material non public information).

I have no problem with it as the Abbot does not and thank your for sharing the information. Will I3E be laughing about it - i doubt it. If there made aware of it - they will probably ask that poster to refrain from publishing direct quotes from a private email as they have done to me and I gather the Abbot - but you do you - it was merely an observation.

Serenity - it has to appraised to realize any value out of it - l3e will be very loathe to walk away from it and not extract value. The Partner could well be Repsol Sinopec / Viaro - they should be in a perfect position to analyse the risk reward of an appraisal. Also I’m pretty confident the loan not holders / large share holders will scrutinize any large Capital Progarms to ensure its not a risk to far.

Let’s hope this latest Covid Variant is not a fly in the ointment and impact near term planning/spending plans.

and on the bright side - gas prices holding up quite well!

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/the-worst-likely-covid-19-variant-scenario-is-fully-being-baked-into-the-oil-price-portfolio-manager~2330855

Eric Nuttal gives his thoughts on what's happening.in the Markets. A couple of take aways:

1) We might see a further small sell off on Monday thereafter he expects Energy Markets to recover.
2) Energy Stocks already sitting at all time lows - average stocks trading at 3x CF (i3e 1.9 x CF) versus a normal market of up to 9x CF.
3) Oil Price Currently pricing in a worst case Scenario and forecasting a demand drop of 4.0m bopd - this is 10 times worse than the impact of the delta variant (Bloomberg).

More patience required !

I would not normally respond for the abbot - but he has been banned from this forum so I will respond in this case.

I don’t think he has a problem at all whether you quote an email from I3E / Graham or not. I think it was just a simple observation - how do I know his observation is correct - because I have been pulled up before by I3E for posting direct quotes and requested not to do it.

I dont think they have a problem sharing the information per se on this board - but I think they have an issue sharing direct “quotes “ from what is essentially a private email that might be taken out of context. Perfect example was GGG where he was quoting Graham and it was 90% correct but then he had to add his little twist on the end about confetti shares and Institutions flipping shares which was also part of the quote which of course Graham had never said and naturally had a problem with it.

I think that I3e failed to track the price of Oil on the upside and has over reacted to the current slide in prices on the downside.

Even at $73 - I still have i3e generating over $7m per month in FCF. That's enough to bump up the dividend substantially and fund acquisitions / development along with the debt facility they are working on.

Value will out !

Joe,

I have no idea what you are trying to say - you should be clearer !

If you want to cast doubt on anything Management are saying - that's fine - that's your opinion. If I had the same thoughts - i'd be looking to sell up and find a Company / Management Team that I had faith in - call me old fashioned - hay ho - thats just me !

Fresh air,

I would not expect Graham to give you or any other shareholder for that matter market sensitive information . Graham does take the take to respond to private investors and in great detail where required and when he has the time - so I wouldn’t necessarily take that as a sign that your going to be invited round to his house on Christmas Eve for mince pie’s and a glass of sherry - unless of course he has already extended that invitation to you in which case I’ll catch up with you there on Christmas Eve!

On your flooding question - I’m guessing he probably referred you past presentations where is clearly shows that I3E’s acreage is in Alberta and not BC. Don’t get the place mixed up with the geological formation which straddles both BC and Alberta.

If your claiming credit for the SP rise today because of your “insider post” - we’ll keep it coming and well done - looking forward what you have for us tomorrow!

The "source" is from Freshairs 18:12 post yesterday which appears to be quote from Graham in an email response to him on various questions although he is not 100% clear. He can correct me if I have misread.

This supports my own observation that the volume has been pretty light the last month or so which suggests no major buying and selling from Institutions.

"All of i3’s major shareholders (with the top 4 owning approximately 55% of the company) are not trading the stock (no TR-1’s), and the feedback we’re receiving from brokers is that the turnover is “retail churn”.

This is interesting - its purportedly from the CFO (i have no reason to doubt it is not but he will probably be ****ed that he's being quoted verbatim here)

I you accept it as being true and you believe that the CFO and brokers have sufficient industry knowledge to determine whether the churn is retail or Institutional - then it debunks in part GGG's theory which was Institutional Investors were churning shares and skimming off profits into small rises and effectively fleecing retail investors.

I also believe that it has been primarily retail churn simply for the reason volumes have been pretty light. I also find it encouraging that the institutions have continued to hold - I believe they see the value here that many of us do and that value will out at some stage.

Cash,

Respect your opinion but I’m not sure I agree. I think the rough numbers I provided earlier show that the best use of cash lies elsewhere.

I’m not sure about your point on cash preservation - if you buy back now at 11p per share and 1 month from now the SP is 10p ?? I know you have the same issue with asset purchases and well development - but the numbers show it’s still a more efficient use of cash - unless I’m missing something in the calculation.

With Canada - the operational risk is minimal on a per well basis so great from a risk mitigation point of view - few places better.

Serenity - I agree , operational risks are substantially greater - but so are the rewards on a per well basis.

Also - it remains to be seen whether you are right about no one biting on Serenity - current delays are completely understandable though they cannot go on forever without Management admitting there is a problem. I’m reasonably confident it will move forward as things stand now - let’s see.