Member Info for toneman

Tyson, these two green H2 generating solutions will happily coexist. They're only indirect competition. There's a big issue with oversupply of wind/solar generation which today is curtailed and wasted rather than stored to assist with future power demands. ITM electrolysers can generate H2 from the excess generation which also helps balance the grid. That's not something that waste to H2 can offer. On the other hand ITM electrolysers can't turn a whole pile of used car tires into H2. So both are required and just happen to have a common output product H2. This is why I also have a small position in PHE...same waste to H2 as the article you found.

I wonder how many more concept studies and feasibility studies we need before hydrogen buses just become the normal purchase. It seems like every country wants to run their own study into exactly the same thing. I wonder why they can't simply learn from each other.

In addition to the UT there were no other large after hours trades marked up, so I guess we're out of big purchases in the pipeline.

I think you're right SirJD. The lower volumes probably mean no more large purchase orders to fill. So I guess we're going down from here. We'll see where we find a level of support to bring some buyers in to match the profit-taking. Could easily be back down to 200-210 range.

I think there are still some quite large purchase orders being filled in the background. Otherwise a 2:1 selling ratio would have seen a significant reduction in price. The market makers are doing quite a good job of encouraging just enough of us to do some profit taking to hand over the shares they need. Check each evening the numbers posted after 4.30pm and you'll see the records of some of the large orders. I'd like to think that there are still plenty of deep-pocket investment funds that are still to build up their allocation of ITM that we could maintain or go up from here in the short term. But if the requests dry up then the price will have to fall unfortunately so that we reduce the level of profit-taking back down to normal levels. Good luck in picking any of those levels for day-trading though.

I was wondering who caused that.

taskmaster, yes, my wife pointed that out to me a few months ago. At least they're consistent on vehicles powered by gases of all types. Perhaps once H2 vehicles become more common, especially luxury coaches that use eurotunnel, then they may find a solution to dealing with potential escaped gases in a long tunnel.

fish2, perhaps consider a PHEV like the VW Passat GTE. Charges either through plug-in (good if you have home solar) and also charges on the move via petrol so you always have enough pure electric to get you round ULEV city centres.

It's what I was considering whilst I wait for the hydrogen car I'd ideally prefer...(I like the look of the new Toyota Mirai, but personal circumstances can't justify the cost new and need more H2 stations anyway).

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/08/new-volkswagen-passat-gte-phev-boosts-electric-range.html

I don't buy this idea that "oil stocks get displaced". I can't see why a large 'oil' company like Shell or BP would just lie back, give up and say "ok, we had a good run - it was good while it lasted". Surely they say "We're not oil stocks, we're energy stocks - and if energy is hydrogen, then we're hydrogen too." To my mind it's more likely that hydrogen stocks get displaced by being bought out by the larger companies once all the hard work has been done by the likes of ITM. I just hope the management of ITM don't sell out too early...they're sitting on a gold mine (just to thoroughly mix up those metaphors).

Thanks.

Hi psmith64. Can you clarify your 1500p prediction? I'm pretty sure you didn't mean 2020. Are you thinking 2025, 2030 or 2050?

Did anyone have a party yesterday for going through the 1bn market cap?

For anyone interested in splitting their bet on electrolyser production, it's possible to invest in NEL through Hargreaves Lansdown platform. That's what I do.

Agreed. Sugar-coating wasn't a good choice of words. ITM do tend to keep things very honest so I'm expecting it's at least a distraction they can bundle into a trading update.

One thing makes me a little nervous and that's the timing of today's announcement. I guess we should be expecting a trading statement from ITM at the end of this month. This announcement and its timing is typical of a sugar-coating or distraction technique to move the focus away from the underlying numbers. Hopefully by now most people understand that the current trading figures aren't going to be much better than previous data because we don't have the big factory full of orders yet. So those figures would likely only justify a 30p-50p share price. The important bit is going to be confirming forecast of factory completion and potential volume of orders. As long as those still point to near completion and full factory in 4-5 years then we're still on track.

I'd like to repeat the link provided by ColonelNivlag a couple of days ago with the interview with Graham Cooley where I think its fair to interpret that he confirmed the target of factory completion by the end of this year, 300MW of production by 2022 and 1GW production by 2025. Those are the numbers that justify a share price in 4-5 years time significantly over 500p and why the share price today of circa 200p have those targets built into the price. Let's hope any trading statement doesn't undermine those targets otherwise we'll get a steep decline...so buckle in folks.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/051320-interview-green-hydrogens-voice-needs-to-match-that-of-blue-itms-cooley

I wouldn't build your hopes up too high with regards Ryse and ITM. As part of the bus consortium they already have Nel who are very experienced in both fuel stations and electrolysers. The only hope for ITM comes from their phrase "Selecting best in class suppliers for electrolysis" if they were to judge ITM as better suppliers/products than Nel. The loose links with Jo Bamford, the JCB investment and a possible 'buy British' desire, are all a little tenuous.

That's not to say I want to burst your bubble, as I believe the Linde partnership is much, much stronger. And additional uptake of hydrogen buses, no matter where the hydrogen comes from, all adds to the global demand which ultimately benefits ITM.

Mucker, some of your questions are answered on the Ryse website...

https://ryse.team/offer/

"Ryse will install and operate hydrogen electrolysers, distribution networks and dispensing equipment."

"Power from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar will be used through a direct connection to the electrolyser which will produce the hydrogen. Our initial deployments are based on systems connected to off-shore wind farms."

"Electrolysers will be co-located with renewable generators so the hydrogen supply will be ultra-low carbon."

"Selecting best in class suppliers for electrolysis and downstream logistics components"

"The hydrogen will then be compressed at high pressures, transferred to storage vessels before being loaded onto tube trailers"

Merging two of the current forum topics I would suggest that 2006 probably was the bubble ;-)

A bubble would obviously suggest an over-inflated share price. If you were to only consider the last reported revenue (+ grant) of less than GBP20m and a share price in the range 20-40p and believe that future revenue will also only be GBP20m then ITM would obviously be over-valued. But we know there is a huge factory being built which is proposed could be operating at capacity in 4-5 years that would generate revenue more like GBP500m - a growth of x25. So in 4-5 years you could argue a share price of 500p-1000p would be equivalent. So is today's 200p over-inflated? It depends what path you think the share price should take from 200p to over 500p.

If the idea of green hydrogen being adopted at the required levels is fanciful then it's a bubble. But many people (like me) think it could easily become a widely adopted reality.

Even if ITM is real enough though, there could still be the effect of a green bubble artificially raising the share prices of companies that are over-hyped or that could never achieve what they promise. So there could easily be a green bubble, and ITM could get caught in it if it bursts, but I think ITM would then come out of it as one of the winners.

I don't think ITM is over-valued against future opportunities, but other companies might be.

But beware if ITM release a trading update at the end of this month their revenue won't have increased beyond their 20p-40p valuation despite the current price tag of 200p, but if the factory and potential future orders are on track then 200p is probably still reasonable value for a company that could be 500p-1000p in five years time.

Laughton, yes a few trades get wrongly marked but not on a scale of 2:1.