Member Info for toneman

I agree testpack3. The thing that surprised me is how this share managed to spike up to 80p recently. The Nahib share-holding could easily have kept that constrained by taking the opportunity to generate more cash to lend to the business (further increasing the debt). But maybe they don't need the cash at this point. Even that in itself would be worrying because they should be generating so much workload to grow the business and orders that would need more cash to support. Although, like you I sold for a large profit, I actually kept hold of a few shares in case I was misunderstanding something fundamental. I'm pretty sure the only fundamentals going on here is speculators driving up the share price on a company that they don't really understand the finance structure.

Finishing off our earlier discussion, now you can see the large buy trade that was being filled today (only the summary is recorded at 1635) which was causing the MMs to drive the price up and attracting sellers. It still doesn't guarantee anything about tomorrow. If the position is now complete then we could go either way depending on what else brings in buyers and sellers e.g. news from EU that we're expecting. If the position is not yet fully filled then we could have further to run up to flush out a few more sellers that they'll need. As ever, decide which outcome you think most likely and place your bets.

They've been saying that for the last 70 years. I guess they've got to be right some time...maybe it's now.

Extracts from the Plug Power announcement today...

"Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG), a leading provider of hydrogen engines and fueling solutions enabling e-mobility, has completed the acquisitions of United Hydrogen Group Inc. and Giner ELX These acquisitions are in line with the Company’s vertical integration strategy in the hydrogen business laid out in September of 2019 with plans to have more than 50% of the hydrogen used to be green by 2024."

"Plug Power is focused on becoming one of the largest green hydrogen generation companies in the United States over the next five years and globally thereafter, and plans to continue to work with existing and new partners to accomplish this goal."

"Plug Power projects that its existing customers will use almost 100 tons of hydrogen per day by 2024 and expects over 50% of that to be green hydrogen."

"Today, United Hydrogen is one of the largest privately held merchant hydrogen producers in North America. The company has the capability to produce 6.4 tons of hydrogen each day with plans to increase that capacity to 10 tons daily in the near future, as well as plans for further expansion."

"Giner ELX includes one of the most experienced teams in the world in PEM electrolysis: most have worked for two decades or more in the field. The company’s offerings include one of the world’s largest, most efficient and cost-effective PEM hydrogen generators; grid-level renewable energy storage solutions, and on-site hydrogen generation systems for fuel cell vehicle refueling stations and industrial uses. Giner ELX also has a strong sales channel in the European market. Plug Power expects the Giner ELX acquisition to dramatically increase its overall green hydrogen supply capabilities and the Company can add significant manufacturing capabilities immediately to serve the global market for electrolyzers."

“Plug Power is working to build the modern clean hydrogen economy,” said Plug Power CEO, Andy Marsh.

See this is what I mean (just announced)...

"PowerCell Sweden AB has received an order for PowerCell S3 fuel cell stacks from Bosch at a total value of approximately MSEK 26 (2,470,100 Euro). The order will be delivered continuously during 2020."

That's just one of many orders PowerCell announce and just this one is a third of the size of PPS entire order book. PPS have been established longer than PowerCell (although I don't fully know PowerCell developments/history before being spun out of Volvo).

There really is a lot of potential out there and PPS don't seem to be getting enough of it yet.

It seems to me the MMs are doing a spectacularly good job. They've raised the price to encourage a whole ton of selling from profit takers and filling the boots of some of the larger stakes we see being built. I imagine that yesterday's drop attracted another fairly large purchase which is being dealt right now and having raised the price enough to take your shares off you again. Seems to be working too from reading today's posts.

Remember, it doesn't always have to be a zero-sum game for it to work, but the MMs know what they're doing when it comes to prising those shares out of your hands or pulling your strings to buy some more. Either way, they'll be making money. It's our job to make some too.

Agreed ShearClass, it would take a 10x-50x multiple of the current order book to begin making a dent in this company's debt pile. Although I guess it only has to make enough margin to keep paying the 10% loan interest to be sustainable. It's still hard to justify the market cap until revenues jump substantially.

It feels like they haven't fully taken advantage of their reasonable head start in this technology and now there are more and more fuel-cell companies all vying for similar business sectors. That could make it hard to build the order book as fast as was anticipated even a couple of years ago.

"make its maiden profits" !? I would restrain yourself from raising that sort of expectation in people. That's generally not what happens this early on in the lifecycle. Ramping up to those sort of production/turnover numbers is hugely expensive. You're more likely to see costs rising substantially. I wouldn't be expecting the company to be profitable for a few years yet.

psmith64 forgive me, but your posts talk about others panicking yet your string of posts sounds like you've been the one panicking. "This is a sure thing...Sell everything...Sky is falling in...It's dropped 8%...That's a better price, start buying...It's still falling...Buy everything back, quick...It's ok everyone, this is a sure thing". I know you made 8k on your gamble, but it's barely been a couple of weeks between being all in , all out, all in. God, I hope nobody is following your strategy or dtring to replicate it.

psmith64, please just pause for breath on occasion. Your views are welcome...just not the same view repeated every 20 minutes throughout the entire day. We get it, you changed your mind...Covid, recession, redundancies, debt. You're waiting to get in lower, starting at 250. October may be bad...Christmas may be worse. Did I miss anything out?

6 months ago this board used to be full of interesting news bits that others may not have seen. Or interesting numbers based on the prospects for hydrogen in industry or transportation. I miss those days.

Please continue with your solid research and share that with us rather than your daily/weekly forecasts.

Well done psmith64. That's certainly a decent profit to bank.

Covid and whole market jitters could certainly throw a spanner in the works, so better safe than sorry. I just wonder though whether this is a demonstration of the market-makers doing a fine job and they managed to prise those shares out of your hands.

Totally agree Bilbo, it doesn't make any sense at all. Especially given that the same Directors almost certainly have a basket full of share options available to them at much, much lower prices than current SP.

Another distinction to consider between ITM and Nel is the technology they offer. ITM, as far as I know, is entirely PEM which is attractive for its fast reaction time (for grid balancing), but is currently the more expensive technology. Nel offer both PEM and Alkaline electrolysers, the latter being much older technology, but generally cheaper and currently typically larger MW capacities. My only real concern over ITM is that the PEM technology may be a little too niche and they lose out to Nel in too many end-user cases.

Honestly SatellitePro I was happy when it hit 200p :-)

...and that was less than a month ago.

Long term upside this is arguably the best paragraph from the trading statement...

"The Company has spent two years developing the new manufacturing process for the factory, which includes semi-automation, a new process for stack manufacture and process layout to achieve a 1GW manufacturing capacity. This blueprint can now be replicated so that capacity expansion in other territories could be very effectively achieved."

...this suggests confidence that the long term outlook is a multi-factory environment. That's important for anyone buying at the +300p price point as the resulting multi-billion mcap company far exceeds today's share price.

On the down side this trading statement could be showing that the necessary orders to fill even the first factory are going to be a lot slower coming in than the current price justifies. And ITM still haven't demonstrated that their manufacturing and management skills are up to the task at hand.

So what!?

Well, new investors (particularly institutional) could well choose to wait a little longer to see how this begins to play out...covid delays, new orders, government support, as the trading statement doesn't say that the game has changed yet. In that case I would suggest we will drift back down to 200p-250p range.

If the investors with deep pockets aren't put of by this - totally expected - trading statement, then we should find a level of support to take us back above 300p and keep us there for a while.

In all honesty though I actually expect it will be the former and we drift (or plummet!) back down to 200p-250p. No, it's not my ideal scenario as it's currently wiping several tens of thousands off my holding. And yes, I'm still a long term holder. But I judge this from what I read and see, not from blind expectation or wishes.

Very good point SatellitePro.

Thanks for the honest and straightforward answer Way2L8. Much appreciated.

I totally agree with your summary of events. That's why I'm invested in ITM too.

I'm pretty sure the FOMO and widening spread of news is almost guaranteed to generate a bubble in this and related hydrogen/fuel cell stocks. It may be we're already in it. So far it's a fun ride.

Larky, I didn't predict a fall yesterday. I was simply pointing out that a large UT trade at the end of the day doesn't guarantee anything about the following day, and it can go either way...and often does.

I'm heavily invested in ITM, thank you, and so welcome the price rise. But to expect or want it to continue to rise at this rate potentially turns it into a bubble. Many people don't do their research and jump on a steep rising share which collapses when reality bites. I'm more on the side of chilting in thinking that a trading update is due, and without a completed factory the traded figures could be barely higher than previous ones. Those who haven't done their research then won't be able to justify the current SP.

Here is a snapshot of the figures I've been basing my investment on...
2018-19 Revenue: £8m (approx) - Share Price Range: 20p-60p
2021 Revenue: £30m - Share Price Range: 80p-240p
2025 Revenue: £480m - Share Price Range: 1200p-3600p

So my only concern is the current price is well ahead of my top estimate. I'd like someone to explain to me why my figures are too low and how £7 would be justifiable and maintainable by end of 2020.

Way2L8, I'm not arguing with your guess, but can you put any meat on the bone as to how you get to £7 ?

I've always thought £5-£10 in a few years based on the factory filling up consistently. So it feels like the current SP is a little ahead of the game to me. I totally understand the demand for shares in this company based on its future potential and there's only a limited supply particularly with so many of us unwilling to part with our shares. But each buyer wants to feel like there's a positive return in it for them. If they're buying at £7 by the end of the year then what is their future price target and also what are they basing that future price on other than future factory builds and/or factory expansion when we haven't even completed the first one yet?

I agree. The UT still represents a valid trade. Whether you think it is a result of a single trade or several trades not listed from earlier executions or from some massive after hours auction, that we don't get to join in, it is still a trade and typically had an effect on the price through the day. If it's a large buy, like the one reported today, then that's why today's action was a strong positive. It can affect tomorrow by changing today's closing price, and also if it represents a bigger position which is not yet fulfilled. But if it represents the end of a large trade with no more buying outstanding for tomorrow, then you can expect a fall tomorrow as the continuation of profit-taking at this level would unlikely find enough buyers support.