Member Info for toneman

Jfernandes, not challenging your short term predictions (that's a coin toss), but I would challenge your valuation statement. Even just one gigafactory is worth £5bn market cap (assuming full capacity year on year) which is double today's market cap. So why do you suggest it takes multiple gigafactories to justify £2.5bn?

Thanks Bellers. Sterling work as ever. Can't say I'm too surprised, I rather agree with Bilbs on this one. Maybe once the 80 new employees are in situ the hive will start buzzing. I hope the new recruits are needed for actual demand rather than predicted...having said that I'm not sure it was all that clear how many of the job requirements were for production rather than more R&D.

Morning Bellers. Thanks, you're a star. I hope they're busy. They've only another month before their year-end so they should be pulling out all the stops to get product shipped for the top line.

Haven't heard from Bellers for a while. Perhaps he'd be kind enough to pop over to the factory and count the number of trucks picking up all those electrolysers I hope we're shipping.

Bellers....

Bellers....

Very true Lutra. Exactly the point I was trying to make about what sort of news will be necessary to shake off the recent negativity.

Just for clarification tiqitiq my post was just a general comment countering the recent "None of this makes any sense" posts of late. It was in no way targeted in response to your perfectly rational post. Just a coincidence of timing and sharing the same header.

The recent stock movements are perfectly rational and are pretty well following all the recent newsflow and sentiment.

1. Do some people think the whole hydrogen and green stocks are hyped up and bubbled? Of course they do. Are they right? Doesn't matter, enough of them think so to have downward pressure on the sector.

2. Has Plug Power spooked the sector with its restating accounts mess? Of course it has. Does it matter? Only if it turns out to be irreconcilable. But until then it's 50/50 what people want to do about it.

3. Is a 1.4MW electrolyser sale enough to counter the negativity? Of course not. Filling the factory is still broadly expected so this isn't big enough news. We were introduced to Sumitomo nearly three years ago so that's not news either. Why's it taken them so long?

4. Are ITM's numbers on their own enough to counter the negativity? Nope, anyone wedded to the idea that share price = profit won't be excited.

What's been more interesting today is CWR performance. A decent set of accounts presented last night. An oversubscribed share offer and a decent uptick today. That says that 'the people who know' are still interested and if we were able to pin some equivalent positive news to ITM we could stand out too. Until then we're pretty well tied to the 'tis a bubble/tisn't a bubble tug of war and general market sentiment.

Blast from the past CantClough...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIMNXogXnvE

This is a very doom-laden board today. Did everyone get out of the bed on the wrong side? Cheer up, Rome wasn't built in a day.

Just mentioned in Investor's Presentation Ceres considering moving to main share market mid 2022.

Bananaman, the essential point it that the underlying business did make a profit, but they chose to spend it and a bit more (total circa £28m) on R&D. Yes, they could have spent only their £10m profit on R&D, but even at that the books would still say zero profit and we'd be potentially missing out on the bigger picture and massive opportunity on scaling up and even creating an electrolyser solution. Of course there's a risk it doesn't pay off, but if it does the extra fund raising allowing additional R&D spend will be well worth it. There's plenty of time for banking profits in the long run, nobody's looking for them at the present time.

I think we'll have to wait until all the 'bubble-bursters' have patted themselves on the back and left us alone. They're only looking at the charts and not the underlying business or sector potential. For them to be happy with a proper burst I think they'd expect retracement back to prices of 6 months ago. I guess they'd also be satisfied/bored with any 'level' suitably below peak and holding steady-ish for about 6 months or so. So far we're still playing out either of those scenarios, although some companies like McPhy and Ballard are already close to prices from 6 months ago. In summary for ITM, if we don't hit 350 in the meantime, I think we could have another 4 months of this before they leave us alone...unfortunately we'll have had another year-end trading statement by then with another set of small-ish numbers. Good topping up for those already not over-extended, but a bit tedious for the rest of us.

Seaangler, one of the things I expect is having a negative impact on our sector is that a week or so ago Plug Power announced that they were going to have to re-state their year end accounts. To be honest they already looked a bit peculiar, but to then find something actually wrong tends to be unforgiveable (short term at least). They've been under extreme downward pressure (with a couple of days of recovery thrown in) and as investors not in Plug probably don't know this sort of detail it's pretty normal for companies in the same sector to follow suit on the assumption that Plug are down solely due to sector sentiment.

All in all there's not been much to cheer about from many players since late January. Ah, well, as long as the story remains solid for the long term then the sector which turn back up again, but I'm guessing that won't be until the second half when COP26 becomes the main story.

SaleSale, arguably the growth over the past 52 weeks is more relevant than the last 7 weeks. The 52 weeks reflects the bigger picture of the future of hydrogen coming to the attention of investors. The last 7 weeks only reflects a tiny battle going on between the optimists and the pessimists as to whether all the good news is already in the price, and can be 'justified', plus some transition back into traditional stocks on the expectation that things can now return to 'normal'. If hydrogen, and in particular ITM, has a successful future then this is currently undervalued. All the pessimists will disagree with me, I can't do anything about that.

Hopefully long-term, Hedy, you can't have too many in your portfolio. Not advice, obviously, just best wishes.

Bilbs you should be able to sign up for 2 free articles a week. That's how I get mine.

What a joy nuclear power is :-(

Many of us have exactly that history willz. As a newbie I remember thinking the charts look very inviting - that was high - that was low - that was obvious - how hard can it be? Turns out not so easy when you can't see the chart in advance. Sometimes you get lucky and history repeats itself, like now with ITM it's quite similar to the period of volatility last summer when the the poor results were announced. It's still hard to pick the best low point and the peaks of the lower highs for short term gains though. In the main I don't bother with it, but if the price looks attractive I'll top up. It will be nice if we come out of this period with an uptrend in a month or so. Fingers crossed - and best of luck.

A week or so on from the HDRO ETF release I thought I'd check its progress. In the past week they've bought more ITM shares, an increase of 49098 shares (approx $320k more). They've added to everything in the portfolio in total about $5m more invested across the board.

I thought I'd hate the article, but it actually hits a lot of points of reality and the stated facts seem pretty sound to me (not saying I agree with all the conclusions though).

I'm against nuclear, and I'm in favour of moving away from fossil, obviously, but my fear is that if we don't let existing nuclear or existing oil join the hydrogen party then there simply can't be enough green hydrogen generated in the timeframe we need.

So if it fails to deliver because it can't meet demand, even though demand is there, that failure could be misinterpreted and self-fulfilling by its critics causing its untimely demise in favour of the 'next big thing'.

Like it or not there's likely still a place for fossil-based hydrogen for at least a couple of decades until there is enough renewables and enough green hydrogen to transition to. Unfortunately not many hydrogen enthusiasts are willing to accept this idea, because which ever way you cut it it's just not green. Also, I fear it would take a far more coordinated effort than we have at present for any other outcome to work.