Member Info for toneman

It's a fine line Bananaman and probably depends what else you're trying to achieve. As PHE is not general purpose incineration then there would surely be other waste left over to be disposed of. Also PHE still needs to capture and deal with the carbon elements of plastics gasification for it to be green too. Yes I'm an investor in PHE too and am a big fan of the plastic to hydrogen opportunity, just saying that the general waste incineration may be an important part of the picture here and so converting power and heat for grid use and hydrogen for transport is probably a fair compromise.

Permission to get furious Bilbs.

Although despite giving off CO2 I'm generally on favour of waste to energy when compared to landfill. But I agree perhaps green is the wrong colour choice.

...which is probably why it didn't move the needle much. But it's the sort of thing that results in repeat orders. Though I think refuelling stations is quite a competitive side of the market.

I work it out to be a 3MW electrolyser installation.

It's in the news link above so I won't repeat, but initiating at £6 is pretty reasonable. They've got good annual growth targets for the next decade, but caveat around being overtaken by the 'big players'. Nothing else for it then, we just need to grow into one of the big players.

Speaking of the British Government Bilbs (well, Parliament at least) the next APPG on Hydrogen Zoom Meeting is set to consider the role of hydrogen in net zero home heating. It is scheduled for Tuesday 27th April 11am-12pm. Those wishing to join the zoom call need to email appghydrogen@connectpa.co.uk to request joining instructions.

I can't understand why anyone favours building more nuclear when you can see the long term devastation that nuclear accidents inflict, let alone the disposal of 'normal' radioactive waste. I know the disasters we've had were all accidents, and may well be unlikely events, but that's the point about accidents, you don't see them coming and therefore you can't avoid them. We'll have accidents with hydrogen too, but they're unlikely to wipe out entire regions and leave the land uninhabitable for centuries.

No idea tiqitiq. Never heard of that before. Maybe someone else can enlighten us both.

The HDRO ETF has been running for nearly a month. Over the past three weeks they've doubled their holding of ITM (now circa $1m) and likewise for many of their other holdings. Standout increase in number of shares held are AFC (6x), McPhy (4x), Everfuel (6x), SFC Energy (8x), Powerhouse (12x), Dynacert (12x), and Proton Motor (13x).

Over the last three weeks the fund value has risen from $7m to $25m, so still a lot of new money coming into the sector.

Joker99, not only is it to do with hydrogen, it's very specifically ITM hydrogen. The EMEC site is where ITM's electrolyser is sited.
https://www.itm-power.com/tidal-energy-storage

Sounds great SP. Love the mountains. Missed the skiing this year sadly due to 'youknowwhat'. All the best.

Boaty, I think it includes the whole of the wind source for the UK. The only way to know for sure though is to pay the £25 fee for 24 hours access to their full data, then you could see the breakdown by specific windfarm.

Hi Boaty, you may get more useful figures on constraints from the Renewable Energy Foundation.
https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/indexbymth.php
They have more data available but I've not purchased it before so I don't know how much further depth you get on specific wind farms, but I would imagine it must be pretty thorough for them to collate it into the summary attached.

Sorry taskmaster. Feeling a little under the weather today so my tolerance is a little low.

That's about as positive as you're going to get from the hydrogen-hating CleanTechnica website. Still, the comments section was full of the usual hate. Sometimes I wonder how they can even call themselves CleanTechnica when they don't embrace all clean tech.

Velo, sounds like you really enjoy this particular style of research which is great...I love playing with numbers. I guess ultimately you still end up, as we all do, judging if the share price is 'currently' over- or under-valued. I'll be interested to see what you end up with, but I'll second-guess here that you'll struggle to justify much above £2 on any set of accounts - and the next set (only 5-ish weeks left) aren't going to be much better.

The key, as I see it, is how you get from a current 'justifiable' price to a near-future price. The company's stated target is for a full factory by, say, 2025. The change in revenue from currently nil to £500m+ is almost unimaginable and that may be partially responsible for the retracement following the recent accounts that still didn't show we'd even started on that trajectory yet. If they do achieve it then that's not the end of the story either because they'd initiate a second, even larger, factory. So a 2025 price target would end up being £10-£15. And a 2030 price target could be £30, who knows.

I hesitate a little, but I suspect that, whilst there are enough believers in that future unfolding, falling to a 'justifiable' spot price simply seems unlikely.

I'll be very interested to see how much 'future' weight your fair valuation for current conditions incorporates. I look forward to it.

Many thanks J. Very interesting reading your opinion. Hope you find something fun to put your money into next. All the best.

J, these forums only really provide enough space for a condensed summary of thoughts so you will be forgiven if that's what's happened here, but some of your claims don't hold up to scrutiny. "Cheapest wins" for energy hardware is clearly not the case otherwise there would be no nuclear. And there also wouldn't have been green subsidies to get wind and solar up and running. You should not confuse economy and money. Economic decisions involve much more than raw cost of supply. It involves considerations about social, geography, jobs, independence, politics, climate, export, import, etc.

I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong, but if you've based it only on price and efficiency I just don't think that's the whole story. That said, I accept that green hydrogen can still be given the heave-ho even considering all the additional economic factors. I am though ever optimistic.

Jfernandes, it's exactly your last sentence that is key - "at whatever the cost to the environment (unless mandated otherwise)". The picture you paint is one where net zero is not achieved, certainly not by 2050 and potentially not for decades after. If the world governments are happy with that then you are absolutely right. But in many cases (democracies) ultimately do our bidding, so it is surely down to us to make sure they don't fall off the wagon, and get our future mandated.

Thanks Jfernandes for your figures.

My basis is broadly the same but just a little more optimistic. The FTSE companies I treat as similar are Halma, Spirax, Renishaw and Rotork all in the industrial manufacturing sector (high quality, actuators, gearboxes, steam, process control, etc). They're all in the 500m-1300m revenue scale (similar to expectation for 1 or 2 GW factories). Their profits are more like 17-20%, rather than the 10% you took. Their average P/E is more like 35. Whether I take a prospective profit and P/E, or sector average mCap per 100m revenue, on £650m revenue (again slightly more optimistic than your figure) I get a market cap for one factory around 4bn-5bn.

I agree that in the early days of transition from fossil to hydrogen there will be a strong drive for blue. You can't get to net zero on grey, so that can't run for long. Blue is still not a fully green solution so will still be heavily campaigned against. Economics are not as straightforward as many protagonists would have us believe. Subsidies are still a massive part of economics which are always unknown until the political dice are thrown. If politicians are happy with blue then blue wins easily. If they need green hydrogen to meet their climate policy objectives then subsidies come into play and make up the difference largely negating the fundamental difference in supply/production cost. And government subsidies aren't limited to our country either, so there's a lot of unknowns yet to play out.