Member Info for toneman

It may not be the floor, but I'm picking up some ITM, Nel, and Powercell at these prices. I plan to add to Ballard this afternoon. Not sure about Plug until it's a bit clearer what their accounting issue was.

I find it a little unnerving. It feels like an opportunity to double your money again. There must be a catch, surely. Either I've done my numbers wrong or these analysts are putting out very misleading information. They can't mean 440 price target for 2025 or beyond can they?? So if not, what relevance is a short term price target of 440 today? Even if I reduce my numbers by their 38% I get way over £10 in a few years.

Could all get a little bit doom and gloom when the other analysts reprice their targets from 700/800 down to 400.

I'm a little confused though. Is their price target of 440 saying that today the price should be 440? If that's the case then I don't really have a problem with that, but what is their growth projection to 2030?

Is the Morgan Stanley model available for download/viewing?

Pokerchips, normally that's right, but for a whole year since the start of the pandemic, Ballard have specifically stated that they are not issuing guidance during the pandemic. And that didn't seem to put anyone off last year.

Doli, actually Dow Jones is at an all time high, both Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all time high only 3/4 days ago. The big drops are only in quite specific high gainers from last year. Some of the green stocks have only given up the 100% increase they made through Dec/Jan in anticipation of Biden's stance on climate. I'm not convinced the facts match your claims.

Yes, I understand the American obsession with "they missed their forecast", and that's exactly what the media state, BUT, whose forecast was it? Throughout the pandemic Ballard have not issued any forward guidance, no forecast, no estimate. So if some analyst is forecasting his own numbers and missed then he's the one that should be fired in this case. As far as I can see no forecast has been missed and the numbers seem about what you'd expect under the circumstances. Not getting at you at all Bilbs, just the numpties across the pond who don't seem to anticipate the ups and downs of large, expensive, early stage, industrial, companies in a growing and unpredictable market...in the middle of a pandemic. Anyway it makes a good company's shares cheaper to buy I suppose...shouldn't complain.

Below is not strictly ITM related except for the knock on effect through market sentiment, but I'm still interested to know what people think.

It's hard to know exactly what the stock analysts and 'so called' investors expect to happen with an industrial company. Especially with quarterly earnings reports the Americans are so fond of. I read yesterday's presentation from Ballard and listened to the conference call and, maybe I'm just too stupid, I can't understand what's so wrong with it that warrants a 20% downgrade. Surely nobody expects instant results from new partnerships and new product releases...especially during a pandemic. This isn't an iPhone release with loyal customers queuing out the door. I guess I just say "Thank you very much, I'll buy some more at the low price you've created". The base they're building in buses, trains, ships and large commercial seems about the best in the business to me. Is it me? What am I missing?

Bloom Energy

I don't know if my last post came through, can't see it on LSE. Here it is again...
This link should get you to the Nel presentation.
https://nelhydrogen.com/quarterly-presentation/

This should get you there.
https://nelhydrogen.com/quarterly-presentation/

Taverham, I tend to agree. It feels like a bit of accounting protection to me. Defining it as a limited company protects ITM Power from extended liabilities that ITM Motive is likely to generate - albeit that the biggest cash lender to Motive is likely to be ITM Power so you can't protect that. Motive has seemed too slow for ages now. To make any sort of inroads into a refuelling network (even for commercial and fleets) I would have expected rollout of at least 5 stations a year previously and probably 10 stations a year by now. The motor industry seems insistent that battery is the only answer for smaller vehicles so there's no volume coming from that market and the UK government are unwilling to go against that consensus. I think commercial fleet is a slow moving customer. I suspect the best startup opportunity is bus fleet which I reckon Bamford with his Wrightbus, Ryse and associated consortium has the best chance of success there.

As for today's price I think the reaction to Nel has had a knock-on effect. Just catching up on the Nel presentation now to figure out why so negatively received.

It's almost as if they don't think it's the future any more, the hydrogen shares just keep getting a pasting over in the US. Some good names are down more that 50% from their peak. I know many thought they got over-hyped last year and became over-valued, but year-on-year some are now only 2-5 times growth. Bearing in mind before that many of them were broadly unknown by the masses they could have been considered undervalued a year ago. My suspicion is that some of the better known will soon begin to look a lot like fair value for the future potential they hold. It's quite amazing to watch it unfold.

I'd missed this additional event last week which was on the same morning as the APPG on hydrogen. Here's the link if anyone else missed it. There is representation by ITM Power.
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/10d462bb-c0f6-41ab-8548-b20614d04388

Rogue_rader, I assume from your moniker that this YouTube is your own. Very impressive. I thought it was an excellent summary of how we got here, and would recommend anyone fairly new to ITM should watch it for an immediate catch-up.

You obviously might have had a reasonable purchase point a few weeks ago at the low point around 360, but if you missed that you might get the same opportunity in June if history repeats itself. If we survive the next trading statement without such a drop then you might not get another such opportunity as the company might start delivering on its promise. The current market cap doesn't have further factories priced in so if they look like coming to fruition the market cap has a reasonable growth to come. That also becoming reflected in price growth obviously depends on shares in issue so cash burn and stock issues could supress the price during this growth. We'll see. I'm still holding and optimistic.

Far2L8, you could glance back at your old profile for some sloothing. Perhaps there's a recent post you might remember and it's not there now. It seems odd that you get kicked off yet your old messages remain, but I assume you can't log in to your old profile otherwise obviously you would have done that instead of creating a new one. https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/way2l8/

Bilbs, I'm pretty sure those air-to-air heat pumps are essentially the equivalent of an air conditioner system, so typically one system only heats the air in one room. Probably not a bad way to go for a small house, but it does bring back memories of visiting grandparents houses before central heating where only heating the rooms as necessary was normal. Leaving the living room to visit other areas of the house, like the guest bedroom or the bathroom, was generally chilly and an unpleasantly cold experience. I hope we're not going back to those days...brrrr.

Today's meeting was broadly positive and the general consensus was that all cleaner avenues of home heating and energy source will be required as there is not a one-size-fits-all solution.

The chat-bar was interesting and included some heatpump supporters trying to persuade all that the efficiency argument is all that matters. I pointed out that I'd heard the installation costs of heatpumps can be in the order of £10k-£15k which could dwarf the higher running costs of even a green hydrogen boiler and the response was that grants would have to pay for the installation. I should emphasise that this was NOT a government response, just a random heatpump supporter. And so the argument continues...sigh.

I expect a continuation of high volatility. If the level of interest in hydrogen being the future is maintained (which I think it will) then the price could push back up into the 600's easily, BUT we're possibly only about 6 weeks away from a trading update of the numbers and financial accounting period ending this week and when that hits the price could get hammered again because the numbers will still be small. That could easily push back down into 400's. Great if you want to gamble and trade on the peaks and troughs. A bit meaningless if you're a long term holder patiently waiting for the factory to fill up.

If you really want a (fools) prediction I'd say 600 by the end of May and 450 by the end of June. But that's not worth the pixels it's written on.