Member Info for toneman

Joe, it sounds like I started out with exactly your goal - I think 10% each week/month is what you said. I hope you have better luck than I did. I traded like crazy, winning some and losing some. In the end I found the net result of all my hard work was broadly zero. In the meantime my long term assets (from the sensible side of me and having to justify finances to my wife) just kept plodding along doing steadily well and easily outperformed my 10% trades. I've got lucky identifying hydrogen as a long term investment a few years ago, and certainly made more holding on to it than trying to dip in and out for 10% a time. Not advice, just an anecdote relating to the fact that we've all been there. I wish you the very best of luck. There's plenty of opportunity out there.

Just topped up in the 470s. I think that's ok value for a 2 year hold. If we get a true burst bubble across the sector then we can still see a lot lower, but I'm happy that the valuation over two years will show this is ok at 470ish. Real bargain hunters should look out for 350, but it may not get that low, so make up your own mind.

Doli, surely you have to accept that it was lose-lose then. We had four years of proof that Trump was inept. Do you feel like there was a third option that everyone was missing?

If you feel yourself getting despondent and losing the faith whilst the share price drifts lower for a few weeks, I can recommend the "Everything About Hydrogen" podcast. The latest episode is a great reminder of the scale of the green hydrogen opportunity. They interview Alicia Eastman who is developing the 26GW AREH in Australia. Incidentally both ITM and Nel get the briefest of brief mentions half way through.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/giga-watt-it-takes-to-scale-green-hydrogen-ammonia/id1475783473?i=1000509240710
(other podcast providers are available, blah, blah)

Well said Seaangler. Spot on summary in my opinion.

It's uncanny. The share price movements that followed the previous lousy trading update on June 8th last year are a very close correlation to the movements following the most recent trading update. So if the madness of crowds continues to play out without news flow (we had no news from ITM for 3 months last summer) then don't be surprised if we continue to get lower highs and a possible drop to as low as 470p baseline before anything exciting happens. That sort of wedge trend could easily play out over 3-4 months.

Never mind Boaty. Put your weight behind this one and let's get some hydrogen refuelling infrastructure for those of us who can't rely on battery cars alone.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/561614

Both Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth always seem to miss the bigger picture, concentrating too much on the obvious solutions of electrification for cars and homes. What about all the hydrogen already used in industry? Do they not wish to see that move away from fossil? What about the areas that are impractical for direct electrification? What about long term energy storage? Or transporting renewable energy from Africa, Middle East and Australia? There's a long list of things that can't be easily solved with a battery, a bicycle, or insulation. They keep wittering on about how hydrogen is inefficient as if we don't already know that. We know it's inefficient, but in many cases it's still better than the alternative.

Sharpeye I'd be fairly confident to suggest that the people who think think this is a bubble are not investing. Doesn't stop them or others shouting "Bubble!" from the sidelines. If they scare enough investors, and even long term holders, it wouldn't stop a short term collapse in sector share prices. Even that doesn't make them right. Although, if ITM were to drop below 400 is such a scenario I would be once again filling my boots with a continued 5-10 year hold position.

I don't think this is a tree shake. This is well within normal trading range for ITM. As I've previously stated 550-650 is reasonable (and we hit 550 this morning already). But more extreme of 500-700 wouldn't be too unexpected either. Honestly it feels like we could see 520 tomorrow, but my daily predictions are not that good. News would have to be massive to carry this over 700 in the short term. And if the bubble really does burst, expect to see closer to 350. All just my opinion. Take it with large pinch of salt.

Kiss of death there Smithy?

Waiting for 20%.

Yesterday was interesting with Plug Power. They announced another MOU for a JV to take 20% of the hydrogen market in Spain and Portugal. All very upbeat yet the shares sold off, down nearly 7%. Over the past few months that sort of announcement would have been easily 10% up instead. That's why I'm hesitant about our share price prospects for this week. I'm interested to see how Plug and Ballard open later today, and also of interest...Nel's Q4 results are announced tomorrow morning.

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Details/2021/ACCIONA-and-Plug-Power-to-Partner-on-Establishing-LeadingGreen-Hydrogen-Platform-for-Iberia/default.aspx

Careful Smithy, we could be heading for a lousy end to the week. The bubble chant is getting louder and louder...
https://www.ft.com/content/0d3c0ea1-2643-4ceb-90ed-961d51f8123d

I wouldn't mind Boaty if it were the Queen's personal decision, I think she'd make the right call. Unfortunately I think this is a ministerial/civil service decision and there we're up against the usual greed, poor planning, unintended consequences, money-grabbing, and lack of business acumen we always get from central office...no matter which party.

sp. rein, not reign.

One of the phrases I really hate is "We must/will learn the lessons from...", because nobody ever does. And here we go again. Arguably one of the contributing factors of the tech crash of 2000 was the telecoms firms Vodafone, BT, Orange et al. overpaying for 3G spectrum in an unbounded auction. It left the industry up to its eyeballs in debt, in recession, and delayed the rollout of 3G as the companies had to reign in further spending over the near term. Why is this relevant? BP recently spent something like 15 times more than 'market' value on the rights to develop offshore wind in a recent England and Wales auction for Crown Estate seabed. Even before they build/generate anything that's costing them 1.75p per kwh for the next 7 years whilst they develop the area, followed by 2% of revenue thereafter. We know BP have a lot of money, from oil, and the government need tax receipts at scale, but ultimately green energy needs to be low cost (especially as the source for green hydrogen), and overpaying for seabed rights ultimately has to be paid by the customer and that will simply raise the cost of green energy which could stifle all sorts of green hydrogen opportunities.

They need to come up with a more balanced system than sealed-envelope bids. Nothing wrong with paying an appropriate fee, but without some sort of regulation some companies will unwittingly put themselves out of business by ultimately bidding what they can't afford, and that will be a disaster for this industry. But will they learn? Doesn't look like it.

Great article Taskmaster.

Best of luck Verticas if that's what you rate as research.

There is undoubtedly bubble activity going on across the sector. You can see it plainly on some of the forums where some 'investors' only measurement/research is that their company is 'cheap' compared to ITM or Ceres and therefore will 'obviously' catch up soon. Doesn't seem to matter that the companies in question don't have a product, no production, no customers. Nope. Just they're cheaper than ITM, they've got something to do with hydrogen, or EVs, or both, so they're bound to go up big soon. Sooner or later one or more of those is going to tumble first and likely ripple across the whole sector. Chances are the more established names, ITM, Ceres, Nel, Plug, will get dragged down too. Fortunately those four at least are easier to value, and although ITM may appear over-valued to some, I have detailed how it can be justified at 650 if we see appropriate order flow. As long as we see some order flow, then if we do get dragged down on bubble sentiment I think ITM would be one of the early recoveries from it.