Member Info for toneman

I think your ins and outs Seaangler are bigger than mine. To make it feel worthwhile for my top-slicing amounts a 20-30% drop seems necessary, otherwise it'd only be a few hundred pounds here and there. And 20-30% drops, for me, are really hard to time. We've had plenty, but not necessarily from 'my' top.

Interesting Siddo. I figure most investors are optimists...otherwise how could you ever convince yourself to buy a stock.

If you invest for dividends the only real times to sell part of a holding is either because you need the cash to invest in something else or you've fallen out of love/faith in the company.

Growth stocks are certainly tricky. Similar to Bilbs, if I find a winner I tend to top-slice...often a bit too early, but sometimes you get lucky with the timing and can buy them back cheaper. I try to sell enough that would make a measurable difference if I bought back again on a 20%+ pullback, but also to leave enough on the table in case it carries on going up. I try to tell myself that's win-win. You can always invest the bit you've taken out into something else. If you get lucky there too that's win-win-win.

I'd like to meet the investor who doesn't make mistakes.

Here's some light-hearted relief. One of the best, Peter Lynch, with his "Ten most dangerous things people say about stocks".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMmocnLnVgQ

Agreed Bilbs, the MMs have been doing this a long time and they are, more often than not, very good at this game. They know exactly how a lot of traders set their positions and can wipe them out quite easily and let the price return to normal shortly after. It appears like manipulation to those that get caught, but really they're just better players.

Atko123, so if you're in for years (5+) then any of these pullbacks represent a top-up opportunity. Tomorrow is half-year results announcement, hence the protection activity today, and could easily do the same again (down 10% or more)...or it could be up big (who knows, certainly not me). As with any new stock position I just wouldn't buy your entire holding in one go. Short term (days, weeks, 6 months) this stock is an absolute gamble. Long term it's only a personal view on whether ITM can pull of what they've already set up. If they pull it off and fill the factory and then build another factory even today is a good price. But medium term I wouldn't be at all surprised if we retest 500-550...not a prediction, but we've retraced 30%-50% in the past and it could happen again. If they've got some good news up their sleeve for tomorrow morning then we could fly up past £7 again. Be happy with your research and then decide. All the best.

Atko123, what's your time horizon? Days, months, or years?

Maybe a 10% drop today and a 10% drop tomorrow looks a lot better than a 20% drop first thing tomorrow morning?

oldbrian, I would say that price/volume action normally reflects a large sell order being processed and an attempt to attract buyers by dropping the price. Given the results due out tomorrow, and as HedyLamarr already suggested, there could be some quite large positions sorting themselves out today.

Sounds like a fair option for many. I mean we know the results up to end of October are going to be miniscule, so what's the Reuters news going to say? Probably "Covid widens losses at electrolyser company". Market makers will expect panic and open with a 20% discount. I suppose I'm thinking anything better than that is a win. Question you have to ask yourself is do you pick up more with a 20% drop or panic sell?

Thanks InThought. That sounds right. It's hard to see that model work for battery charging. If range is only 150 miles I'd wonder if they'd typically make it back to the depot for recharging. If range is 400+ miles then the power deliver for fast charging sounds challenging. Like Bilbs said, I'd like to see someone else's maths, because the maths I've done just seems implausible.

Can anyone shed any light on current diesel refuelling? Where do 40 tonne trucks typically refuel today? Other than on motorway service stations I'm not really aware of seeing any trucks refuelling across my daily schedules over the years. Of course it's not something I've been looking for over the years so it's probably been going on right under my nose.

Sounds like a decision they will regret in a few years. Incredible to think they believe that recharging 40 tonne carrying trucks in 45 minutes is a simpler solution. Oh well, we'll see.

Clarification...2021 estimates raised from $450m to $475m (not 40%), and their 2024 raised by 40% to $1.7bn.

Plug Power host their business update conference call today. Starts at 8.30am ET which I think is 1.30pm for UK.

They've announced that they've exceeded 2020 gross billings and are raising their 2021 and 2024 targets by 40%.

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Details/2021/Plug-Power-Exceeds-2020-Guidance-and-Raises-Targets-for-2021-and-2024/default.aspx

http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001093691/af196407-b10f-4147-89b4-0e783f4af76a.pdf

Hi donketykong. I took Halma (HLMA) as my reference. They are a FTSE100 industrial manufacturer. Their mCap is about £10bn with revenue around £1.3bn. In rechargenews last week ITM gave current figures of £800k per MW, aiming for £500k per MW in about three years. That places the full factory at £500m target revenue for electrolysers alone. Allowing £150m for alternative revenue sources (warranty, service, spares, consultancy, grants) then a direct comparison against Halma financials calculates to £5bn for one GW factory.

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/green-hydrogen-itm-power-s-new-gigafactory-will-cut-costs-of-electrolysers-by-almost-40-/2-1-948190

One fly in the ointment to counter the above calculation is that Nel recently suggested they are targeting about £222k per MW which ITM will likely have to compete directly. I didn't lower my factory assessment though because by then the recurring revenue from warranty, service and spares will have increased and the production efficiency will likely increase to improve the electrolyser margin. By then we'll be measuring more against profit rather than revenue and I'm hopeful that will at least maintain my mCap assessment.

...breaking away from the political thread. A few days ago in response to that thread I suggested that rather than being overpriced, instead ITM is priced for perfection. I was considering this morning where perfection could take us. In my opinion perfection looks like...successfully operating factory 1, reach 300-500MW production, trigger build of factory 2, fill factory 1, open factory 2, repeat for factories 3, 4, and 5.

If you assert a Market Cap per factory of £5bn (I think that's conservative), then not only is today's price an almost perfect fit but new factories introduced every 4 years add £1.25bn each year all the way out to 2038. Reflected in share price (unrealistically assuming no share dilution) that drives an incremental share price a little over £2 each year. That may not sound stellar to some, especially those new to this share and wanting more, but if that's perfection I'll take that all day long if ITM can deliver it.

For anyone interested in the All Party Parliamentary Group on Hydrogen, there is a Zoom meeting on Tuesday 26 January between 11.00-12.00. It's probably not too late to register by emailing
appghydrogen@connectpa.co.uk

I generally find them informative and they do sometimes pick up questions you ask through the side-bar.

Perfectly summarised as ever Bilbs.

Cathie Wood of Ark Investments is predicting a "doozy of a correction" some time this year. If she's right (and she probably is) then it's likely that green hydrogen stocks would also take hit. But I'd bet they'd be one of the first to recover.
https://youtu.be/BbADYm9pWiI

Joe, not necessarily overpriced, but I think the phrase "Priced for perfection" would be appropriate. Trouble with that is it's very precarious. It could carry on growing more steadily whilst the future plays out with good orders, a full factory, and then a second factory. But I wouldn't place a bet on everything going without a hiccup. So why don't I sell my shares in ITM? Because it's not a bet, it's an investment. I would probably use an inevitable pullback (30%-50%) to buy a few more.