Member Info for toneman

Topped up down here as well. I'd like to think that their investments will continue to produce solid returns and others will consider this well undervalued being so far below NAV. The spread here looks a bit wide, but HL always gives me a buy price near the bottom of the spread, so always shows up here on LSE as a sell. I imagine that's the same for some of the other displayed trades. A good number of them must be actual sells though for the price to steadily drift lower as it's been doing. Fingers crossed it will stop falling as my capital losses are certainly outweighing my dividend.

Fair point bonxie, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarity.

It's a weird spin they put on the Synchroster award - "10 hours, longer than current battery technology". 10 hours at 1MW is only a 10MWh system. IES will be a 30MWh system and its 4 hours duration is based on its ability to deliver 4MW. But surely if you ran the same IES 30MWh battery at a 1MW discharge it would theoretically last for 30 hours - 3x longer then Synchroster. Sounds like they're pulling the wool over a few eyes in order to justify the Synchroster award.

Have any of you taken a look at Tesla's Master Plan Part 3? They've finally got on board with the hydrogen electrolysis use case we've been discussing for the past few years. It'll be interesting to see how much traction this gets from this accommodating stance. Ever since Musk's "Fool Cells" jibe, the worshippers have effectively claimed that hydrogen is dumb simply because the Messiah says so, and as a result would never countenance any application of it anywhere. Presumably those same followers must now change their views...or else decide that Elon's lost his mind.

btw, he/Tesla is still not suggesting it ever gets used for direct transportation.

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf

Here's a snippet of one of its mentions...

"Sustainably Produce Hydrogen for Steel and Fertilizer
Today hydrogen is produced from coal, oil and natural gas, and is used in the refining of fossil fuels (notably diesel) and in various industrial applications (including steel and fertilizer production). Green hydrogen can be produced via the electrolysis of water (high energy intensity, no carbon containing products consumed/produced) or via methane pyrolysis (lower energy intensity, produces a solid carbon-black byproduct that could be converted into useful carbon-based products).
To conservatively estimate electricity demand for green hydrogen, the assumption is:
• No hydrogen will be needed for fossil fuel refining going forward
• Steel production will be converted to the Direct Reduced Iron process, requiring hydrogen as an input. Hydrogen demand to reduce iron ore (assumed to be Fe3O4) is based on the following reduction reaction:
Reduction by H2
• Fe3O4 + H2 = 3FeO + H2O
• FeO + H2 = Fe + H2O
• All global hydrogen production will come from electrolysis

These simplified assumptions for industrial demand, result in a global demand of 150Mt/yr of green hydrogen, and sourcing this from electrolysis requires an estimated ~7.2PWh/year of sustainably generated electricityh.
The electrical demand for hydrogen production is modeled as a flexible load with annual production constraints, with hydrogen storage potential modeled in the form of underground gas storage facilities (like natural gas is stored today) with maximum resource constraints. Underground gas storage facilities used today for natural gas storage can be retrofitted for hydrogen storage; the modeled U.S. hydrogen storage requires ~30% of existing U.S. underground gas storage facilities. Note that some storage facilities, such as salt caverns, are not evenly geographically dispersed which may present challenges, and there may be better alternative storage solutions.
Global sustainable green hydrogen eliminates 6 PWh/year of fossil fuel energy use, and 2 PWh/year of non-energy usei. The fossil fuels are replaced by 7PWh/year of additional electrical demand."

It was tongue-in-cheek Jeff. ITM has been in electrolysers far longer than Plug Power. Plug Power only purchased Gener ELX in 2020 and at the time Gener would have been considered quite well behind ITM. ITM had already announced their 1GW factory, the largest in the world. Even when Plug Power bought ELX they had nothing like that, not even in the pipeline. Plug Power has been relentless in the meantime signing agreements, joint ventures, winning contracts, and building factory space. Seems like a clear overtake to me, but not exactly a surprise. Along with many others here I've been in and following ITM and Plug Power for quite some time. Perhaps you already know all the history, but if not, it's very interesting. Most here already know that I'm invested in both, so it doesn't really bother me which one is 'winning'. I think the market is big enough for both. Would you rather I keep my 'gallows' humour of the forum Jeff? If so, I rather fear you're out of luck.

...leading the competition is better.

Looks like we've been well and truly overtaken.

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/press-releases/news-details/2023/Plug-Announces-Record-Production-of-PEM-Electrolyzer-Stacks-in-Q1-2023-On-Track-to-Meet-100MW-per-Month-Target-in-Q2/default.aspx

Putting my pessimistic hat on, does this risk cancellation of the Linde 200MW if they're directly comparing alkaline and pem? What if they find the 10MW alkaline received from Sunfire more cost effective, more efficient, or cheaper?

Not only do we have that abundance at times already on windy days, we even pay the windfarms to turn them off and produce nothing instead...ludicrous. Converting the current level of curtailment into hydrogen would already supply 10% of the UKs industrial hydrogen demand.

"The EU's e-fuel exemption will allow a synthetic alternative to petrol which is made by mixing carbon dioxide captured from the air with hydrogen obtained by splitting water molecules using renewable energy."

On the face of it this move ought to boost electrolyser sales. Of course they could water it down even further by permitting e-fuels to be made from blue hydrogen as well. Alongside Nas-k's useful post below we should really be starting to see an uptick in expectation for the hydrogen sector, but maybe it just can't get through the nay-sayers and the current market jitters holding the sector back. Funny, if the cork flies out of this bottle again we're primed for another 10x and a repeat of last time. I hope Dennis manages to get all his ducks in a row.

I don't know if the link below will work but the original is a telegraph article at the bottom for those subscribed.

https://archive.vn/R6zVZ

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/28/net-zero-ban-petrol-cars-chaos-brussels-climbdown/

It's only been 2 months since the new CEO laid out a 12 month plan to fix things. Hopefully we'll get a few progress updates along the way, but it's not going to be suddenly fixed in 2 months. Until we see real progress the price is a coin toss based on the overall market and maybe some sector news. Anyone brave enough to trade around the volatility may as well. You're likely to have a few more months of playtime.

Might have something to do with this site's over-enthusiastic vulgar words filter. They've obviously got a list of vulgar words to strike out from each post but I can't understand why they wouldn't have a continually updated list of vetted words that happen to have a vulgar word hidden inside. The so-called "S****horpe problem" is well documented and should be so easy to fix.

I sometimes suffer from the opposite problem Savvy. Being too patient I can end up riding a nice gain all the way back down to zero on the other side.

I know Savvy, but surely it can only be manipulation if it has an actual manipulative effect on the price, which it doesn't. If it manipulates others without them doing their own research to substantiate Phat's claims then more fool them. I accept it's annoying and tedious, and they are just scare stories, but sadly it's the only way we'll hear from that side of the market. You must be able to see that it would not be beneficial to simply have an echo chamber of unicorns and rainbows.

Although I do not agree with Phat's current view I would like to defend his position on this board. What many of these stocks require before they can return to a positive trend is capitulation (not specific to CWR). To me Phat's recent reversal of sentiment indicates that we are approaching that point and his posts reflects those on that side of the trade. So just ignore the ramping/deramping nature of the posts as they have zero effect on the stock price, but it is important to measure/observe sentiment.

On the plus side, it might bode well given the UK Government always backs the wrong horse. From today's budget they are clearly backing CCS and nuclear. No idea how they expect to reach net zero targets by 2050 backing those two...especially stating their goal of only 25% of electricity from nuclear by 2050. Right, I think I'm going to back the other 75% then.

"Environmentally friendly". LOL.

GC linked to this article in his Twitter feed. It's worth a read. I do hope they see sense and allow H2 generation to be matched with renewables over a longer time period. Hourly matching is idiotic. It's pretty obvious to recognise that hourly matching would lead to long periods of no generation and then periods where you can't use all the power available.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/us-green-hydrogen-definition-annual-rather-than-hourly-matching-could-cut-h2-costs-by-up-to-175-and-still-be-net-zero/2-1-1417840

Just my personal opinion, Mucker, and I know it's a bit cliche, but ITM has demonstrated what's often wrong with British business and Plug Power has demonstrated a typical American approach. From when I first invested in ITM and Plug Power, ITM is almost identical today albeit now with a big (empty) factory. Plug on the other hand only made forklift trucks along with their warehouse hydrogen refuellers. Since then Plug has purchased a PEM electrolyser manufacturer and a cryogen manufacturer so that they can now offer an end to end solution. So while ITM wait for potential customers that may want an electrolyser that matches the specific size that ITM build, Plug can supply a variety of elements along the route, liquid hydrogen, electrolyser, fuel cell systems, fork lifts, refuellers. And rather than getting good at the complicated stuff ITM has offloaded anything that isn't pure electrolysers. ITM-Linde now do all the complicated balance of plant infrastructure; ITM Motive and Vitol do the refuelling systems. It even seems like Linde are in charge of Sales (I don't know if we ever got to the bottom of that dynamic). The worrying part of that final statement is that the Linde CEO (Sanjiv Lamba) recently did an interview for the Hydrogen Council where he said...

"I am convinced that blue hydrogen, and its derivative blue ammonia, will take center stage in the next few years as a bridge while renewables and green hydrogen production scale up."

...so clearly their focus is on blue first, green eventually.

https://hydrogencouncil.com/en/meet-the-members-linde/

It's not always about Brexit Mucker. Plug Power's home nation isn't a member of the EU either. Plug Power has demonstrated many times that they're either better at this than ITM, perhaps have a more compelling end-to-end business model, or maybe ITM just aren't going for this business.