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What on earth was that action all about? Seems bonkers. I wish they'd hurry up and start selling repeatable quantities so we can better stabilise a valuation. It makes your head spin.

A very welcome step up in the price today. I can't see any particular direct news driving it. Just delayed reaction from the recent positive presentation perhaps? Maybe people just getting back to work and their investments after maximising their holiday allocation absorbing two consecutive long weekends??

It feels to me like the market is undervaluing the opportunity across all the hydrogen stocks. It's amazing the aftereffects that one little bubble can have on a whole sector. Still massively out of favour despite all the companies investor updates still talking about needing even more production capacity to cope with the demand that's coming.

The funny thing is that once the orders start flowing the stock prices ought to rise quickly, but that will look to many like the bubble repeating and therefore continue to scare some investors off. This time though, it won't stop.

Just checked the status of the shorts. It's good to see they're measurably coming down over the past three months. WorldQuant have exited their position entirely. The outlier is Helikon Investments who were still increasing theirs in early February with no change since. They now hold a little over half the entire short percentage.

Overall I thought it was a pretty strong presentation today. Each company in the sector keeps proclaiming the size of the market and the scaling up required to meet it, but the market on the whole seems to be roundly dismissing it after feeling like they overpriced the sector a couple of years ago. I'm pretty sure they've gone fully the other way and most of these opportunities are now underpriced. Hope I'm right.

Nel gave a pretty sound investor presentation today. Their electrolyser revenue is up 75% at £21m (278m NOK) for Q1.

They took a leaf out of the Dennis Shulz playbook and announced their own strategy update - bigger, better, focused. Among other things they said "Prioritize bigger strategic customers (with high commitment to the industry) to avoid customized single unit sales".

Their backlog of interest continues to grow. They reconfirmed their expansion of existing facilities and announced that they have made a decision now on where their new USA manufacturing facility will be built, and likely to announce the location by RNS next week. Their aim for the new site is 4GW production split between PEM and Alkaline.

Anything is possible if you've got money and resources. Sounds positive when it says they need so much electrolysis that they'll be buying from others as well as in-house manufacture.

I still think the main limiting factor in all this is how to get enough renewables built as they have to go hand in hand with the electrolyser assignments.

Great points wetherboy.

Andrew, you can also download the presentation slides from the CPH2 website. The actual presentation part very closely followed the slides, although the general tone was one of high enthusiasm. The cautionary tone came toward the end, simply to say that the growth should be big, but should also be steady, i.e. don't expect a decades growth in 6 months. Lifting smkr's post below, that's essentially what happened in 2019/2020, investors priced in 10 years of growth in two years and then got disappointed when the revenue didn't show.

In the closing questions someone asked a cheeky one about future revenue. Understandably the answer given was a little vague, but I took it to be suggesting that 2030 revenue should be measured in billions, not millions, if the volume grows according to plan. I'd be interested what others heard. It's hard to imagine a billion+ revenue company still being a £54m market cap by then, so should be an absolute bargain down here. Funny though, the market is absolutely not pricing ANY of the hydrogen stocks for success at the moment. I sincerely hope they're all wrong and missing a massive opportunity because I'm fully loaded at the moment.

Every single presentation from companies in this sector is claiming absolute mega growth to come over the next decade, yet the market seems to be saying "No". I find it hard to believe that ALL these companies are wrong in their outlook and their manufacturing expansion plans.

"who may or may not be CEO"

It did cross my mind last week whether D.S. was just someone operating ChatGPT in the background. Answers were too good though.

Sorry, I don't mean acidic. Less concentrated Alkali.

That's a fair analysis and comparison of traditional Alkaline electrolyser Jeff, but it's a little out of date. I was questioning the efficiency and lifespan in relation to the AEM membrane versus PEM membrane, as this mornings article made specific mention of Evonik's newer membrane technology. Although it's not absolutely confimed in the article that the Singapore example IS their AEM technology rather than a traditional Alkaline one.

Here's what Enapter say about their use of AEM. In short, almost exactly the same amount of hydrogen per MWh as PEM and less acidic than tradtional alkaline (so I assume lasts longer).

https://www.enapter.com/newsroom/aem-water-electrolysis-how--it-works

? "PEM electrolyzers are more efficient and have longer lifespans".

Is that definitive Jeff? Evonik claim their Anion Exchange Membrane is high current density and very good efficiency. I haven't seen a direct comparison. Can you share your figures?

If AEM and PEM are comparable in efficiency terms then the lower cost of AEM could easily make it compelling.

I'm sure many of us have worked for multinational organisations, those often with similar product offerings in different regions. From my experience you spend a lot of time trying to outcompete your sister companies rather than trying to help 'them' win more business. I don't see any difference with Linde. If Linde Engineering (not ILE) are asked to build and operate an alkaline electrolyser based on Evonik's AEM technology (probably an Enapter electrolyser) then they're not going to turn the business away.

If the question had been "Does ITM need Linde" then I would agree with Jeff (although I'd hope not to be quite so judgemental). However the question asked "Does Linde need ITM", which is not so clear-cut and can be easily argued that they do not.

Until electrolysis takes off at scale, Linde's interest in ITM (and ILE) is merely contingency planning on their part. It is currently adding nothing to Linde's already massive global revenue and profits. As an investment it would readily be written off if the global march is not towards electrolysis (or ITM's version of it).

I can quite easily visualise a world where Linde supply 80% of their hydrogen from carbon-captured blue sources and only 20% from electrolysis. At those low-ish levels it might even be cheaper to purchase green hydrogen from a supplier like Plug Power rather than take the trouble to build your own sources from ITM hardware.

None of the partnerships in the sector are turning out to be exclusive. Both Linde and Shell have made links with Ceres and others, and it was a mistake for any early shareholders of ITM to consider those as exclusive to ITM.

Looking back at the past 4 days trades is showing very similar activity. All large volumes and all marked up as 'unknown'. The volume indicator on the chart is showing an interesting increase lately. It's certainly not number of trades though which you can still count on your fingers and toes. Hopefully whoever is manoeuvring in the background will help push this higher.

Many thanks Dennis for taking the time to reach out to us on the forum. What a pleasant surprise yesterday to see such a hive of activity. I'm sure we all look forward to being able to communicate with you again in the future. In the meantime, good luck with the rest of the 12 month plan.

There is currently about 1GW (average) of curtailed power from UK windfarms. It's enough (annually) to replace 10% of UK grey hydrogen with green hydrogen. Given that equates to approx 1 year of ITM electrolyser production capacity, do you get enquiries from any businesses serious about resolving that waste of energy? If not, perhaps you should set up your own ITM grid-balancing service? That's a bit like having National Grid pay you to lifetime test your own products.

The green hydrogen space already feels like it is not a level playing field. e.g. New battery chargers or new data centres don't have to be paired with a new solar/wind farm, but green hydrogen does. In addition, there is talk about electrolysers (from 2027 I think) having to be matched on an hourly basis to a renewable generator source. All this must make the electrolyser sales business much more difficult than needed in that it takes two extremely complex projects and effectively shackles them together. Do you think you and other leaders in your industry are going to be able to make the politicians see sense and to not overregulate green hydrogen, otherwise I fear they could kill it before it has even got started?