Member Info for toneman

I hope so Krusty. All my clean energy funds are currently sucking the life out of my portfolio. I'm guessing it's money still flowing into bonds/gilts, but hopefully it'll flow back when the bank rates stop rising.

Bilbs, I guess I was just thinking in similar terms to Snam inking ITM as preferred supplier for some number of MW. You could argue that Snam also had no specific market and no specific price. There's also an argument that any company who thinks they will want electrolysers in the future should consider 'pre-booking' some factory production ahead of time. If we can believe the 'hype' in the ITM, Nel, Plug reports of 'backlog' then demand should outstrip supply before the end of the decade.

All that being said, it hasn't escaped my notice that Snam have yet to place a single order (as far as we know). And I feel that a similar inking from future-split-Motive could also lead to no orders materialising. Just thinking out loud.

It would be nice if the future agreement names ITM as the preferred supplier of new Motive's electrolysers. I wonder if they can write that in?

Another decision which I think won't turn out as clear cut as this knee jerk reaction presupposes. I think the high power instant demand that all these battery solutions are going to need will turn out more difficult than the decision-makers currently believe. Despite the extra cost, I think we'll be revisiting these hydrogen solutions to spread the load further down the line.

https://thedriven.io/2023/08/07/german-state-ditches-world-first-hydrogen-train-network-for-cheaper-electric/

Please don't be put off posting here Wast3d. It's actually one of the better boards with genuinely interested long term holders and great, informative posts.

Regarding timing, you've probably already spotted that the preliminary results were due out recently but have been postponed to mid-August. It's probably all perfectly innocent, but I've been caught before where the delay ends up being due to restated prior accounts. Make up your own mind whether we're heading for a big drop on restated accounts or a big rise based on positive forward looking statement. It's a coin toss for me.

Wast3d, my argument would be that it's broadly irrelevant what today's market cap is without considering what the future market cap is likely to be. My rough possibilities are these...

Future scenario 1: Perhaps ITM goes bust and is worthless so there would be no current market cap that makes sense to invest.

Future scenario 2: ITM has modest success, maintaining its current single factory but no growth. £50m (est) annual profit and a P/E around 10 with stagnant market cap of £550m. Only point to investing would be future dividend yield.

Future scenario 3: ITM is a growth company. Prospective P/E around 30 so a market cap nearing £2bn at the point where the current factory is in full flow. I think it's going to be 2026-2027 before we recognise whether this scenario is playing out. Beyond £2bn market cap depends on ITM's share of the market.

Nice article Wetherboy. Thanks.

The comments section doesn't change much thanks to the anti-hydrogen warriors though. Funny.

I've read many of your posts Jeff. You are a very unfriendly poster. There, that's an opinion post.

If it's an echo chamber you're looking for Jeff, might I suggest you stick to Facebook. All opinions and ideas are welcome here.

The big change we've had over the past year is cancelling the second factory and building an extension instead. There might be a difference of opinion about handling the capital account around that. Accountants are always trying to shift that stuff around to gain the biggest tax advantage. All will become clear next month, hopefully. If it ends up being some sort of restatement then I'd predict a 30% drop.

Hmm. In my experience that's normally received quite badly by the market. Back down we go...

What has changed since the Telegraph's unfortunate recommendation, timing it right at the peak of the bubble? For one thing Ceres has introduced their electrolysis pathway since then. That wasn't in the Telegraph's consideration when they thought that the £2.7bn market cap (£15.88) was not too excessive. Given the potential more than doubling of market opportunity that electrolysis introduced, would that make a £6.7bn market cap a consideration as not too excessive today? If so then we're looking at a 10x opportunity from here just to get back to where the Telegraph's analysis thought was worth buying in. The bubble burst, but the opportunity is still there.

Finding a ready supply of drillable hydrogen would almost certainly guarantee a hydrogen economy.

A hydrogen economy makes electrolysis of excess wind and solar a far more credible choice.

The efficiency of direct electricity for cars and domestic heating should ensure continuous roll out of more solar and more wind power, which in turn leads to significant periods of excess solar and wind. Quickly it would become obvious that paying for curtailment is dumb and farms would have a choice between battery storage for providing the electricity at a better time or hydrogen generation to feed the hydrogen economy. I think the ones that lose out in this scenario are the blue hydrogen CCS guys.

We let too much fear-mongering take centre stage in this country without sufficient pushback. Whenever hydrogen is mentioned there's always someone shouting about tiniest atom, leaks from anything, metal embrittlement, more explosive than methane, inefficient, Hindenburg, bomb, etc. As if the gas industry doesn't already know the physical properties of hydrogen. It's not as if people are expected to go and collect a bucket of hydrogen every day to run their stove. As I've said before though, we don't have to rely on this country to get it right. When other countries get it right first then we can follow along 10 years afterwards as usual.

This might not be considered new by the market as we'd have been informed about the FEED study originally. This is the confirmed production order. I wonder who the customers is.

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/press-releases/news-details/2023/Plug-Secures-100-MW-Electrolyzer-Deal-for-Green-Hydrogen-Project-in-Europe/default.aspx

Feels like Linde is just sitting on their hands with ITM.

SimonV, I guess there's a possibility of them being Ceres technology, but my money's on them being PowerCell PEM technology instead.

https://www.sustainabletruckvan.com/bosch-powercell-fuel-cell-stacks/

"The agreement gives Bosch the exclusive right to manufacture and sell PowerCell S3 for use in the automotive market."

I suspect the dual listing will result in all current shares being essentially worthless. If you've got any faith in the company I'd imagine it's better waiting until the dual listing creates a new market cap for that business and investing fresh from there.

I had high hopes for this company. Alas, currently not impressed. Presentation all sounds like 'slopey shoulders' to me.

Wish I'd got out at 18p.

One thing that might be worth flagging, is they mentioned looking for a manufacturing site in USA (in order to take advantage of the IRA). The current cashflow statement suggests they have enough money to see through to June 2024 (also confirmed yesterday), but that probably does not account for setting up a new manufacturing facility in America. If they do choose to set up a new facility, a reasonable expectation given the anticipated growth of demand, then in all liklihood they're going to come back to the market for more money. That would, once again, put downward pressure on the stock price - down to whatever discount they offer at the time.

Nice summary BESST. It may turn out that including cost as a negative versus Li Ion is overly simplistic. The lifetime cost rather than up-front cost could be lower for flow batteries due to their much longer life. Also, the safety aspect potentially allows for a higher density concentration of battery 'modules' as they don't need the fire safety separation that Li Ion demands, and can even be stacked. So costs of battery storage vs footprint could be advantageous for flow batteries.