Member Info for toneman

Fair point Rainman, I think I already understood that from the comments I read. I've no intention of changing peoples mind regarding their vote. The only reason I posted what I did was to point out to some that they're not likely to get a better outcome than the current offer. I've been in this position several times and I haven't had one yet go any other way.

Counter point is that I think a 'No' vote would be interpreted by the BOD as a vote of confidence in them that people want them to continue - I think the BOD are really that self-centred as to interpret it that way.

Thanks Rainman. So I've read through all the posts and still can't work out what you think I'm missing. Seems like people genuinely wanting to try to stop the sale. Let me know. Happy to listen.

Sadly it's pretty futile to vote 'No'. Even if the company sale on these terms were voted down by enough private investors the likely result would be that the company would simply run out of money and the Directors would declare the business insolvant. At that point the Administrators would be called in and the company would be stripped of various assets and the remainder sold for peanuts to anyone interested in the IP. Under those circumstances current shareholders wouldn't even get the 0.25p currently on offer.

Best just accept it's over and move on. The vote will inevitably go through and you will get your 0.25p and the technology of Velosys will live on under new ownership. If you're still interested then you may get to buy shares in the reincarnation when they next decide to bring it back to the market. Hopefully the Directors at that time will be better skilled in building and scaling the opportunity.

You win some, you lose some.

There is a chance that it will be an ITM electrolyser. Ryze Hydrogen is involved and they have a few interesting links. Jo Bamford's investment company HyCap recently bought ITM's Motive Fuels.

https://www.motivefuels.com/news/motive-fuels-acquired-by-hycap-group

So if Motive are going to supply the refuelling for the project maybe their system design will still use ITM kit.

Inspired by the Oak Bloke's substack I've emailed TENT with the following...

"In light of your announcement to dispose of assets and return capital to shareholders I would like to make the comment that I feel this is a premature reaction. The FED has given a strong indication that the US rates have peaked and will likely begin to fall during 2024. The response to this is likely to be that much of the cash currently on the sidelines will be reintroduced to the market in the near to medium term. Although the UK is not directly tied to the US market, and our inflation and interest rates is lagging the US, it is a fair bet to suggest that the UK markets will follow a similar trend.

I believe that by throwing in the towel now TENT will effectively find themselves selling at the bottom.

TENT has a very interesting portfolio of investments. Despite the recent 'pause' in clean energy investment support from the market I expect that hindsight will show this to be short-lived and simply a response to the over-enthusiastic clean energy investment landscape of 2019-2021 where results could clearly never match the hype. The clean energy market will likely be reenergised with the previously sidelined money needing to find a new home and, in conjunction, events such as COP and global governments offering support and insisting that it be the general direction of travel.

If it is not to late to do so, I would urge you to reconsider your decision to wind down the fund, and instead seek an adventurous new investment opportunity to excite the new money that will soon be waiting in the wings."

It's going to be interesting to see if it tracks over to the UK, with particular interest in ITM and CWR. I have my doubts (but will be happy to be wrong). Plug has plenty of orders, is building out tons of production, but is running out of cash. The anticipated Fed cuts will bring all the side-lined money back into the US market which could swiftly ease Plug's financial problems so it makes sense they will pop on the expectation.

ITM and CWR have the opposite problem, enough money to survive (?) but with no orders and little production. So are they likely to be attracting any of this 'new' money. I have my doubts. Obviously if really significant money goes nuts and just starts chasing anything and everything then we can all breathe a sigh of relief, but I think we'll still need to show orders to make it stick.

Looking forward to tomorrow and 2024 to find out.

The Fed just gave the US market reason to up the expectation of rate cuts next year resulting in a significant pop in stocks. The talk now is of a significant amount of money coming off the side-lines and back into the market. Maybe TENT should not be too hasty as they may once again be in a position to raise cash next year and continue with the original growth plans. It would be a shame to throw in the towel at exactly the wrong moment.

Thanks. I see it as the difference between being an investor versus simply a trader of stocks.

Looks like Snam have still got big plans. I wonder if they will remember they have a significant stake in an electrolyser company?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-groups-launch-two-green-hydrogen-projects-italy-2023-12-12/

James, so did I. Of course it's a tiny amount in the grand scheme of things so doesn't make any difference to me. But I thought it best to offer up my money as that's what the company needs right now. I wonder how many other investors think the same way?

Oh, and the other thing that seems to set them apart from 'normal' trades is they are invariably right at the upper and lower limit of the spread. They never seem to be floating in the middle like normal trades. I've even seen several outside the bands...perhaps a really special message, that one.

Agricore, I think you're probably right about the signalling theory. Or it could simply be inter-dealer trading as they balance their positions to keep their availability optimal. The reason I'm leaning more toward the signalling theory is that many of these events all get recorded at an identical time - that's what sets it apart from 'wallies' as there would never be that many wallies all making the same mistake at the exact same time. The other reason is that I saw a couple of 'zero' quantity trades. How on earth is that possible if it's not simply some elaborate messaging system between market-makers? Anyone out there smart enough to crack the code?

Hi Rebess, hopefully the change in the story will turn out to be a good thing. As with many stock market bubbles, too much optimism followed by the reality of no actual money being made is not a rosy tale. The reality is that green hydrogen has to source electricity from renewables and there won't be anywhere near enough excess renewables to satisfy every single demand proposal cited by all the 'hype' stocks from three years ago. Therefore some of those proposals have to die and for now at least it appears that personal road transport is at least one of them, and likely, home heating will be another. There needs to be enough of these that bite the dust so that the useful green hydrogen needs can be met with the available renewables. In the UK at least there also needs to be a concerted effort to speed up the grid connections otherwise the new renewables won't be able to keep up with even the remaining demand.

Whilst the parliamentarians are distracted by Oil, Gas and CCS projects we may once again be able to get back to building and completing some actual green hydrogen projects and deliveries as long as companies don't hold out too long on their FID in their desire for government subsidies.

There are some key areas where Gas and Oil can't deliver and the main one is curtailment of wind power. Eventually I think the payments for curtailment will get so large that even the blinkered will have to recognise it's such a waste of the public's money (either through bills or taxes) to pay so much out simply to throw away the energy. For ITM I hope people realise that green hydrogen is a better conversion of that excess than battery storage, but I fear that realisation is going to be slow to dawn.

I've always had 2025 as a critical year for ITM, but I would hope for some indication of liklihood of success through 2024. So fingers are firmly crossed that some sense will prevail in the evolving story. Best of luck.

Good luck with AFC, constructivenews. But if you think you'll be successful there without ITM, CWR, PLUG or others in the space also being successful then you are deluded. AFC cannot do it alone. If these fail so will AFC. Better option may be to pick another space to invest.

There is no cliff edge between now and 2060. More renewables will be added annually and balanced periodically with fossil fuel and other sources exactly as today. Look at the coal plants we have today they only get fired up if absolutely necessary. We should eventually only use the gas powered for the same reason (maybe even supplied by hydrogen in 2060). As long as we don't do something moronic and dismantle all the gas powered power stations we should be absolutely fine on cold, still, overcast days. Sure it adds cost to maintain a backup, but I don't see that as any less essential than paying for an army and military hardware when there isn't a war going on.

Bilbs has been warning us of this for quite some time.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/electrolysers/european-electrolyser-sector-could-collapse-if-eu-green-hydrogen-auction-subsidies-go-to-chinese-equipment-ceo/2-1-1558385

That's why I'd much rather government stick to a fiscal policy using tax breaks as incentives rather than grants. That's far more efficient than having to apply for a grant and wait for an answer through a sclerotic central government approvals system.

Beware the unintended consequences.

The chancellor's new/recent funcding announcement is targetting 2025-2030. What will companies do through 2024? Likely they'll put off FID until 2025 to see if they qualify for government support. We've seen this before after all the big funding intentions of COP26 when everything went quiet whilst companies put plans on the back-burner in case there was a handout potentially coming their way.

Let's hope ITM are escalating their international sales to bridge the gap.

I think a share buyback would be a mistake. It's more important that the company doesn't look like running out of money. That's what's gone wrong over at Plug Power. Dennis has already said he doesn't expect positive cashflow until 2027. That's quite a long way off. He needs to concentrate on generating as much revenue as possible and minimise cash burn. The share price will reward a successful company. If we are confident that ITM can make it, we should see the current share price as a gift and load up. It's a pity I'm already fully loaded.

Hi BESST, I'm most interested in your comments/feedback from the battery storage event you attended this week. To repeat my question - Did the attendees/speakers discuss whole life cost of storage technologies, and what was the consensus around that? i.e. Did it seem like something they cared about? Or were they solely focussed on the low price of lithium? Many thanks if you get time to respond.