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Let's hope it climbs above the 50p and stays there through December so we can collect on those outstanding warrants and get some fresh cash injection into the business. If they get that and can turn a few more of those base case pipeline opportunites into confirmed sales then 2024 would be satisfied. Fingers crossed.
Visitinghost, there is one aspect that we technical people should always keep in the back of our mind. Sometimes, just sometimes, politics and economics trumps engineering facts. If a country chooses to subsidise one technology over another then that economic support can overcome, in this case, the technical inefficiencies. I'm not saying it will in this case, but just because something is a technical certainty is no guarantee of a win.
In the short term it certainly appears that hydrogen is all but out of the running in short range ground transport and home heating. But developing hydrogen in all sorts of ways is not off the radar, even politicians are still backing CCS. If in 10 years hydrogen has developed a foothold through CCS then there's no reason that the other sources of hydrogen generation don't get involved too. Technologies like PHE are more likely to generate revenues from waste disposal rather than hydrogen generation so the hydrogen becomes almost a byproduct rather than the main product.
Cards on the table though, I've still written off my investment in PHE just as I have with EQT. Both poorly run it turns out, although PHE could still just about rise from the ashes.
I didn't miss that paragraph. It's not particularly relevant as it's limited to 12 month outlook only. It doesn't change the oulook for where they're going to get the next stage funding from to stay in business. Existing shareholders are effectively drained and will be replaced going forward.
This is the bit you should surely find a little concerning.
"The management team has prepared financial forecasts to estimate the likely cash requirements of the Company over the next twelve months from the date of announcing these unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements. These forecasts show that the Company will require additional external debt or equity funding going into the second half of 2024 to be able to continue as a going concern.
The directors have assessed that there is a reasonable prospect that the funding required for the Company to continue as a going concern will be secured and therefore have prepared the unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements on a going-concern basis. In the event that additional funding is not secured, the Company would not be a going concern and as a consequence there is a material uncertainty relating to the Company's ability to continue as a going concern."
So they're going to need a substantial investment in Q2 2024. Are they going to get that from you?
They go on to say... "In response, the Board is conducting a review of available options for required investment, with a particular focus on long-term, strategic investors of sufficient scale and resources to support the Company's growth and execution of its strategic vision. To facilitate engagement with prospective investors, the Company has, together with its advisors, including a major investment bank announced by the Company in February 2023, established a 10-year business plan built around its declared strategy."
Surely that sort of big investment to help fund a 10 year strategy would dilute existing investors more or less out of existence.
I like this company. The results seem very much on track to me. We'll see if the market likes it or not. If they are taken a bit negatively by the market then it's probably because people are reminded that the technology won't be used at scale until 2025+.
Certainly can't complain about holding onto a decent chunk of today's price rise given how negative the rest of the market is today. That bodes well for future rises when sentiment is not so negative and hopefully more people will have awoken to this company and its prospects. Sleeping giant.
Shareholders from the last funding round have also still got warrants outstanding at 50p. As long as the share price stays above 50p then the company will receive extra money from any of those that get purchased in December.
Remember there is a converse to all the FTSE250 funds. There are also funds that don't hold large companies or FTSE250 constituents. So any AIM fund or small company fund that currently holds Ceres is likely having to offload their entire position at rebalance time to comply with their rules. Therefore some days are going to see big buys and others big sells.
What we're looking for though is if the average price goes up over time which means overall larger holding positions either because there are more funds holding FTSE250 stock or that their holding volumes/values are bigger than the outgoing AIM stock funds.
The market cap is the sum total of current value of all shareholders' holdings so, roughly speaking, if new funds carry larger weightings than the outgoing funds then the total sum invested should be bigger. And as the total sum is also 'price' x 'total shares in issue' then the price must rise to make the arithmetic work.
BurrenBoy, you've got to make your own mind up regards selling. From my experience existing shareholders tend to lose everything following administration and forced sale as there's never enough left over after paying fees and debts. In that case the company (sometimes even same directors) and same projects carry on regardless but under a new company and new owners/shareholders. Current shareholders can only watch from the sidelines at what could have been.
An alternative is a buyout without administration, but the price tends to be so low that you barely get anything more than today's equivalent share price. But at least you get some back which can be a consolation to some.
There's always the slim possibility that all this is overblown, if the company has access to enough cash and survives on its own. Maybe some way off your shares become worth something again.
Your call.
This isn't the first £20k I've lost in this manner and probably won't be the last. As many people will tell you, if you can't handle the loss, don't play the game.
It's hard to see anything other than two possible outcomes, either sell the business or go into administration. As shareholders we either get about 1p or nothing.
They won't get any more money through a placing and they don't have enough revenue to survive. Anyone think anything other than one of those two outcomes is likely?
Many funds don't rebalance their portfolio on a daily basis and also may not time their rebalance to coincide exactly to index constituent date change. There's already been some interesting buy volumes almost certainly as a result of CWR move to FTSE250, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more at or near month-end and quarter-end. Interesting times.
It's a start. Dennis still doesn't hold many shares of ITM. I know he will accumulate plenty through his various awards but it would be nice to see him building steadily with purchases at these levels to signal that there's value here.
Marker72, I agree with wetherboy that the UT price being slightly higher than close is a good sign as it should suggest the auction was bid up by strength in buyers. Other than that in my experience it doesn't generally guarantee anything lasting over the following days trading. This time might be different of course as CWR trades officially in the 250 from Monday morning. Hopefully the demand was so high at Fridays UT that it wasn't fully satisfied by the auction and buyers remain in the wings. If sellers hold their nerve and keep availability low then the price then has to rise to prise open sticky hands. I plan to keep hold of mine for a few more years yet.