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I also don't think it'll have any long term impact on Invinity. Invinity are already progressing their cost-cutting in order to achieve their manufacturing cost targets and they know that, no matter what, they'll eventually have to be priced to sell, to be profitable, and all potentially without subsidies. Arguably, I can see Trump's green restrictions helping speed that process along as it makes it much more urgent.

Additionally, it's hard to see the Lithium fires not keep popping up and highlighting the potential risk of that technology. Invinity need to capitalise on that particular negativity to get some early sales over the line. I've read several objections contributed by the general public trying to prevent battery storage being implemented in their neighbourhood and they're nearly always about fire risk to their community. Naturally I have a suspicion that they use that argument purely because it's powerful and the real truth is they don't want an industrial facility near them at all, but at least we can defeat that safety risk argument instantly with an Invinity Flow Battery instead.

Possibly going to be some knock-on effect from this. Nel adjusting capacity to match market demand.

From their release...

"The market for renewable hydrogen production technology has been slower than expected for the industry in general, including Nel. Order intake in 2023 and 2024 fell short of expectations, and several customer projects are significantly delayed or are at risk of being cancelled."

"Nel has decided to halt production in Herøya temporarily."

"Nel continues to see a strong pipeline of clean hydrogen projects and is actively working on several concrete bids, including projects where Nel is currently undertaking paid front-end engineering design (FEED) studies. Nel also sees good near-term opportunities to sell containerized PEM systems."

Nel down over 20% as a result.

Fortunately Elon loves solar and batteries so with any luck he'll persuade the Donald to at least support those.

It's amazing how much impact Trump's anti-windturbine comments yesterday have made across the green stocks today. It's almost hard to believe that the comments from one man can carry so much weight, especially when they're dumb and so quantifiably wrong. I reckon worst case scenario is USA takes an apparent pause on wind energy for 4 years whilst the rest of the world, probably led by China, continues expanding wind farm rollout. Best case scenario is that the best companies work out how to proceed without grants and handouts and the whole sector becomes leaner and more efficient once they realise they've got to continue without USA Government support. There's so much scale already built into this, even in some USA-based companies, that I can't believe they would opt to throw in the towel just because Trump hates wind...that would be bonkers.

On the plus side, Elon likes solar and batteries, so Invinity and BESS in general shouldn't suffer, right?

Anyone interested in tracking the increasing amount of wasted wind potential can find the amount (and cost) of curtailment here... https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/index.php?tab=yr

Last year curtailment nearly doubled to over 8TWh.

Personally I'm in favour of electrolysers supporting wind power and batteries supporting solar, but most people don't recognise the difference and assume batteries are good for both. So if they're going to default to BESS then as long as they use Invinity flow batteries or one of my BESS funds then I should be happy.

A reasonably balanced article.

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/03/flow-batteries-are-the-future-of-renewable-energy-and-australia-could-be-a-world-leader-if-theres-funding

A friend of mine asked me what I thought about gravity battery storage like this one...

https://www.energy-storage.news/energy-vault-china-project-commissioned-new-aus-bess-order-but-big-revenue-drop-in-2024/

When I ran through some estimated figures (approx 75m x 75m x 35 storeys tall), I think you could fit around 1000MWh of Invinity batteries into that same space versus the 100MWh of gravity storage. So 10 times the storage if you are allowed to place Invinity flow batteries on each floor. My guess is that you currently wouldn't be allowed to house flow batteries like that as there's almost certainly a regulatory restriction due to the (unrelated) history of Lithium fires.

Do you think the zero fire risk with Invinity's batteries will eventually allow our batteries to be installed in huge multi-storey buildings like these? And do you think that will be a good idea for achieving some grid-scale solutions within some cities?

Very much looking forward to growing interest in Invinity's product through 2025. Best wishes to all those invested. Happy New Year.

Presumably some sort of Christmas bonus arrangement.

Thanks OT, great summary of expansion signals. Appreciated.

Eventually the wider market will recognise that the majority of new energy production and asset build will be in renewables. It will eventually dawn that battery storage is key to maximising the effectiveness and efficiency of those systems. Until then the disbelievers, the naysayers, and the ill-informed will continue to claim that clean energy doesn't work and can't work at scale and thus frighten away investors on what is, I believe, a huge opportunity.

It looks like a really great product. I like that they're selling it as a clear and positive upgrade versus Lithium. I don't think we'll be waiting long for that GW pipeline interest to start generating orders and booking production capacity slots.

Fairlysolvent, yes, I'm confident for the following reasons.

The energy storage market (in the UK at least) is still early and seems very reliant on government backed projects. So I think that knowing the way that system works (specifically the NWF) is a very strong opener.

An ability to raise funds is likely going to remain important for Invinity and it seems he has skills in that area.

I liked Jonathan Marren in the role previously and as he's now CEO I don't think he's going to let Adam blow it. Had Jonathan been no longer at the company then I guess I'd be more reserved whoever was brought in as new CFO.

Of course, this is just my opinion. Time will tell.

That sounds really positive. Adam must have really liked what he saw when they were working out the recent NWF investment. I'm even more optimistic about the company's future now.

This used to be a really pleasant and sensible board.

Funny, I even miss Smithy. I wonder what ever happened to him?

Anyway, I wish all holders all the best. I'm still a holder and will continue to be. But this board has become a sh#tshow now like all the others. Pity. No point contributing now. TTFN.

Jeff, I haven't insulted anyone. Take a look in the mirror.

Jeff, it's hard to take you seriously now if you're looking at NVIDIA and ASML as a comparison to ITM.

Jeff you are getting too hung up on revenue. What becomes far more important is profit. A product that you can't charge a premium for that is also costly to produce results in lower profit margin...that's just obvious. And it's widely accepted that the oversupply of electrolyser manufacturers versus demand is likely to hang around for a few years yet which puts further pressure on having to keep a cap on selling prices. The growth potential is also generally acknowledged to be not what was predicted 5 years ago. Just saying, basically I wouldn't go thinking you've got a 'Tesla' in your hands here.

Jeff, maybe you need to be a little more conservative on your numbers? Isn't 10x revenue a little steep for an estimate for market cap. It's not going to be a particularly high margin product - it's an expensive product (so you can't ask a premium) and costly to manufacture. I'd think about dropping your calculation to 3x, and maybe even lower if Linde end up taking a significant slice of the profits. Or maybe you can justify why you think 10x revenue is fair?

I'd give it a couple more days for confirmation of any transaction. Such a size would surely result in some reporting thresholds being crossed. Those don't always appear next day.